IPCC6 2021: POST#1: TCRE PART-1: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS This Report reaffirms with high confidence the AR5 finding that there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause. Each 1000 GtCO2 of cumulative CO2 emissions is assessed to likely cause a 0.27°C to 0.63°C increase in global surface temperature with a best estimate of 0.45°C41. This is a narrower range compared to AR5 and SR1.5. This quantity is referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE). This relationship implies that reaching net zero42 anthropogenic CO2 emissions is a requirement to stabilize human-induced global temperature increase at any level, but that limiting global temperature increase to a specific level would imply limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to within a carbon budget. PART-1: CRITICAL COMMENTARY THE TCRE DERIVES FROM A LINEAR CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THIS CORRELATION, PRESENTED BY THE IPCC AS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING ACTUALLY VIOLATES THE FUNDAMENTAL THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING DRIVEN BY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE. IN THE TCRE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LINEAR FUNCTION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS BUT IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING DRIVEN BY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION, THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS. THIS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY INVALIDATES THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING PRESENTED BY THE IPCC ON BEHALF OF CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE REASON CLIMATE SCIENCE PREFERS THE TCRE OVER THE THEORETICAL PARAMETER THE ECS (EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY) IS THAT THE THEORETICAL PARAMETER, THE ECS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, REMAINS AN UNSETTLED ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE BECAUSE THEY DON’T REALLY KNOW WHAT ITS VALUE IS EXACTLY. THESE KINDS OF STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL ERRORS ARE THE NORM IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN BUREAUCRATS. PART-2: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities. Since 2011 (measurements reported in AR5), concentrations have continued to increase in the atmosphere, reaching annual averages of 410 ppm for carbon dioxide (CO2), 1866 ppb for methane (CH4), and 332 ppb for nitrous oxide (N2O) in 2019. Land and ocean have taken up a near-constant proportion (globally about 56% per year) of CO2 emissions from human activities over the past six decades, with regional differences. Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 °C higher than 1850-1900. Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in 2011-2020 than 1850–1900. The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is due to methodological advances and new datasets that contributed 0.1ºC . PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY HERE WE FIND THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS BEING COMPARED WITH A HISTORICAL PERIOD GOING BACK TO 1750 AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS BEING COMPARED WITH A HISTORICAL PERIOD GLOING BACK TO 1850-1900. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION IS THAT ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING STARTED IN 1950. THIS MORE RECENT REFERENCE YEAR IS JUSTIFIED IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF WHAT IS CALLED THE ETCW ISSUE OR EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING. IN ESSENCE, THE ETCW ISSUE IS THAT THE CLIMATE SCIENCE GHG THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING THAT RELATES TEMPERATURE TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DOES NOT WORK IN THE PERIOD 1750-1950 OR FROM 1850 TO 1950 OR FROM 1900 TO 1950 AND LATER BECAUSE THE EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING IS TOO STRONG TO BE DESCRIBED IN TERMS OF THE GHG EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS RESPONDED TO THIS ISSUE NOT WITH A SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION BUT BY SIMPLY REMOVING THE DIFFICULT DATA PERIOD FROM FURTHER CONSIDERATION AND SIMPLY MOVING THE “PRE-INDUSTRIAL” YEAR WHEN GLOBAL WARMING BEGAN TO THE YEAR 1950. IT APPEARS THAT THE IPCC SCIENTISTS ARE NOT AWARE OF THIS VERY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN BUREAUCRATS. PART-3: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities PART-3: CRITICAL COMMENTARY THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL DRIVING FORCE THAT RELATES GLOBAL WARMING TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS THE ASSUMPTION THAT OBSERVED CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION ARE CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. YET, NO EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED FOR THIS CAUSATION. THIS ESSENTIAL RELATIONSHIP IN AGW THEORY IS ESTABLISHED ONLY WITH THE POWER OF THE WORD “UNEQUIVOCALLY”, ADMITEDDLY A VERY POWERFUL WORD, BUT THE POWER IN A SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF THIS NATURE SHOULD BE BASED ON DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS. FOR EXAMPLE, IT MUST BE SHOWN WITH DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AT THE PROPOSED TIME SCALE. IN A RELATED POST WE SHOW THAT NO SUCH CORRELATION IS FOUND IN THE DATA AND IN FACT, NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE IS FOUND FOR THE ASSUMED AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50%. PART-4: NO CORRELATION FOUND IN THE DATA FOR THE RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. RELATED POST#1: MAUNA LOA CO2 DATA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/ RELATED POST#2: THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/ bandicam 2018-06-26 09-38-07-779 RELATED POST#3: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/ CONCLUSION: NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS ASSUMED CRITICAL RELATIONSHIP IN AGW THEORY IS ESTABLISHED IN THE IPCC REPORT NOT WITH EVIDENCE BUT WITH THE WORD “UNEQUIVOCALLY”. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN THE IPCC IS NOT HERE TO CARRY OUT UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY TO DISCOVER THE TRUTH BUT TO CONVINCE THE WORLD THAT WHAT THE UNITED NATIONS BUREAUCRATS NEED THE TRUTH TO BE IS INDEED WHAT THE TRUTH IS. IN OTHER WORDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT DESTROYING THE PLANET, BUT RATHER, WHAT WE FIND IS THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS DESTROYING HUMAN CIVILIZATION.