Friday, December 25, 2009











Reference: Running out of time, Bangkok Post, December 23, 2009

The observation that the warmest winter on record was caused by carbon dioxide emissions and it happened in the year 2000 (Running out of time, Bangkok Post, December 23, 2009) is presented to support the fossil fuel theory of global warming but in fact it proves the theory wrong because the theory implies that with continued emissions and continued rise in the CO2 content of the atmosphere, the warmest winter on record should be the most recent one on record and not one that happened nine years ago.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Sunday, December 20, 2009

















Reference: Chinese farmers struggle with climate change, Bangkok Post, December 20, 2009

Gansu province is located in the middle of China, the silk road runs through it, and it figures prominently in Chinese history, but throughout history its economic development has been retarded by frequent earthquakes, droughts, and famines. It is a very arid place containing parts of three deserts including the ever expanding Gobi desert. Expanding deserts and desertification of the province has been a long standing problem and is well documented in the historical records that go back thousands of years. It has never been an agriculturally important province. Its recent economic boom is due to mining and not agriculture. The plight of wheat farmers there is best understood in these terms and not in terms of carbon dioxide. The attempt to sell agricultural hardship in this arid land as effects of carbon dioxide emissions (Chinese farmers struggle with climate change, Bangkok Post, December 20, 2009) and the implied offer of agricultural success by emission reduction is dishonest and it is likely part of a strategy to scare China into submitting to the warmist agenda. It will not succeed because Gansu is not important to Chinese agriculture - which has been booming of late with bumper harvests - and because the economic well-being of Gansu itself depends on mining and not on agriculture.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Saturday, December 19, 2009














Reference: Taking some positives from Copenhagen, Bangkok Post, December 27, 2009

The Copenhagen meeting (Taking some positives from Copenhagen, Bangkok Post, December 27, 2009), advertised by the warmists as a "do or die" watershed event for the global warming movement, appears to have gone in the "die" direction. What had started out as a ploy to use carbon dioxide to contain the rise of new Asian economic powers, and to control a perceived "population bomb" of the undesirable races, has backfired badly leaving the Europeans nothing more than obligations to pay billions of Euros to developing countries for programs that no longer have a context. The money game has been made worse by the enormous greed for reparations that has set in with the countries that the Europeans themselves once hyped as "vulnerable" or "most at risk" as a way of selling the war on carbon dioxide to the poor countries. Instead of joining the war, the vulnerable countries are demanding compensation for the alleged harm caused by Europe's industrial revolution. It has all gone wrong for the warmists. The only "positive" one can take from Copenhagen is that the world's nascent economic recovery has been spared an artificial and catastrophic rise in the cost of energy.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Friday, December 18, 2009














Reference: Destruction on a global level, Bangkok Post, December 17, 2009

The warmists had decided in 2005 that Hurricane Katrina was caused by carbon dioxide emissions and held up Katrina as the smoking gun and the "clarion call" in their movement; but when their predictions for more severe hurricane seasons in the ensuing years came up empty, they distanced themselves from hurricanes and moved on to the Bay of Bengal claiming that carbon dioxide emissions are causing cyclone activity there (Destruction on a global level, Bangkok Post, December 17, 2009).

Yet, cyclones have been forming regularly on the Bay of Bengal for hundreds of years. The area has a history of severe and destructive cyclones with more than a hundred cyclones recorded since 1732. Of the 30 deadliest cyclones only two, Nargis and 02B, occurred after the year 1979 that marks the end of the last cooling period and the year that global warmists cite as the beginning of the current warming trend.

The most devastating cyclone on record hit East Pakistan in 1970 and became the proximate cause of the separation of that region into the new country we know as Bangladesh. The second most severe cyclone hit Kolkata in 1737. In fact the 8 worst Bay of Bengal cyclones struck while atmospheric CO2 was less than 300 ppm. It is not possible to conclude from historical cyclone data that they are caused by carbon dioxide. It cannot be argued that Bay of Bengal cyclones can be moderated by lowering CO2 emissions.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Wednesday, December 16, 2009


















Reference: Destruction on a global level, Bangkok Post, December 17, 2009

The soil salinity problem in southern Bangladesh has been misrepresented as an effect of carbon dioxide and "rising seas" (Destruction on a global level, Bangkok Post, December 17, 2009). Shrimp farming did not take root because of soil salinity as claimed in the article. Rather, soil salinity took root because of shrimp farming as explained below.

The export oriented shrimp farming boom in Bangladesh started twenty years ago and it caused large coastal agricultural areas to be leased, flooded with sea water, and converted into commercial shrimp farms. The boom went bust in 2008 after the financial crisis dried up the market for large and expensive shrimp in the West and the shrimp farms are being abandoned as a result.

Abandoned shrimp farms leave behind agricultural wastelands because the salinity of the soil caused by shrimp farming makes it impossible to grow traditional crops. Farmers who leased their land out to shrimp producers now face a tragic situation because the leases have been terminated and they have taken possession of their farms but they can't grow anything on them.

It is a sad tale of human suffering and it deserves the attention of the appropriate relief agencies but it has absolutely nothing to do with carbon dioxide.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand









Reference: Climate change 101, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009

To establish the idea that carbon dioxide causes global warming, it is claimed that "The notion of warming comes from basic science: Carbon dioxide traps heat." (Climate change 101, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009). Basic science does tell us that carbon dioxide absorbs heat but that in itself is not enough to conclude that the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has caused global warming. The essential parameter for that relationship is the climate sensitivity of carbon dioxide.

The source of that parameter is not "basic science" but an empirical correlation computed between CO2 and temperature in Antarctic ice core data. However, to use these data in this way is not scientific; first because correlation between historical data does not imply causality; and second because carbon dioxide lags temperature in the data.

The lag shows that during periods of warming, temperature goes up first and carbon dioxide rises later. Therefore rising carbon dioxide levels could not have been the cause of warming. In any case, a correlation between x and y in uncontrolled field data could exist if x causes y or if y causes x or if a third unobserved variable causes both x and y or if the correlation is spurious. To derive causality from such data is bad science.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand













Reference: Polar ice may go in five years, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009

An unusually extensive summer melt of Arctic ice in 2007 encouraged warmists to abandon Antarctica and seize on the Arctic as their primary evidence of impending climate change catastrophe and to predict that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer (Polar ice may go in five years, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009). The ice free summer was initially forecast for 2080 but in later revisions the year was changed to 2060 and then to 2030 and finally to 2013 although the data show that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted and as required by their proposed theory. Instead summer ice did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand













Reference: What and where is our climate change policy, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009

Thailand's climate change policy is the Kyoto Protocol and the Thai delegation to Copenhagen has clearly presented that policy and has made a point of reminding all observers that Thailand intends to abide by it and expects the Annex 1 countries to do likewise. As for the sinister reference to the encroachment of sea water in Samut Prakan as an effect of carbon dioxide emissions (What and where is our climate change policy, Bangkok Post, December 16, 2009), kindly note that such encroachment in the Bangkok Groundwater Area, that includes Samut Prakan, is a well known effect of land subsidence caused by ground water extraction and is completely unrelated to carbon dioxide. The repeated attempt by the global warming people to present these data as effects of carbon dioxide emissions speaks to the desperate nature of their science.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Saturday, December 12, 2009









Reference: The giant climate fraud in Copenhagen, Bangkok Post, December 13, 2009

An article breathlessly promoting climate catastrophe hysteria claims that "Himalayan ice is rapidly vanishing and will be gone by 2035 so the great rivers of Asia that are born there will shrivel and cease" to provide water to a quarter of humanity (The giant climate fraud in Copenhagen, Bangkok Post, December 13, 2009).

The preposterous and scientifically impossible idea that the Himalayan ice will be gone by 2035 comes from the IPCC which initially cited a research paper that claimed that Himalayan glaciers will be gone by 2350. As this statement may not have contained the fear factor that the warmists wanted, the date has been whittled back to 2035 without explanation and Himalayan glaciers have been gradually expanded to include all Himalayan ice.

As for rivers running dry, the IPCC specifically targets the Ganges river claiming it will go bone dry by 2035 because of vanishing ice. Kindly note that the Ganges derives less than 5% of its water from glacial melt.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Friday, December 11, 2009









Reference: Low carbon is the economy of the future, Bangkok Post, December 12, 2009

In their hour of desperation, what the rich countries are saying to the poor countries is this: Look, there are just too many of you and if you all end up living high off the hog like we do, there would be way too much carbon dioxide and that would be bad for global warming. So please, stay poor and keep the status quo - with you as the white man's burden and we the all powerful rich, able and willing to take care of you with billions of Euros of aid should global warming devastation strike (Low carbon is the economy of the future, Bangkok Post, December 12, 2009). Unfortunately for the rich, the poor countries are not falling for this line for they know well that if their rate of economic growth is not ambushed by the rich countries' war on carbon dioxide, by the year 2100, when global warming devastation is predicted to strike, they will be rich enough to take care of these problems all by themselves.

What's more, if the rich are serious about committing economic suicide in their vain attempt to control the planet's climate, it is they that will be the poor countries in 2100 freeing up resources for the newly rich; but not to worry, because the newly rich countries of the future will be able and willing to take care of the newly poor and to help them weather the storm of global warming with billions of Bahts, Rupees, and Yuans in aid and assistance.

The message from the poor countries is this: don't keep us poor so that you can take care of us. Let us get as rich as you, so we can take care of ourselves.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Wednesday, December 09, 2009















Reference: Warming trend is clear, Bangkok Post, December 9, 2009

It is reported that the summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive on record in 2007; and that these data show that our carbon dioxide emissions are causing Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether ( Warming trend is clear, Bangkok Post, December 9, 2009).

In fact, the data show the exact opposite. If the claimed trend were correct, Arctic ice would not have fully recovered after the 2007 summer melt and the 2008 and 2009 summer melts would have been progressively greater not less. For the argument in the article to hold water, the 2009 autumn ice extent needs to be the lowest on record with 2008 the second lowest and 2007 the third lowest; and in fact this is what the IPCC had predicted in 2007, but that is not what happened.

The case against carbon dioxide is not clear but murky and sinister.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Tuesday, December 08, 2009









Reference: CO2 models falling short, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009

In the Pliocene warm period the earth was warmer than it is now but with atmospheric carbon dioxide about the same as it is now. This state of the world is inconsistent with the global warming climate model in which warming is driven primarily by atmospheric carbon dioxide. The obvious conclusion is that the global warming climate model is wrong and carbon dioxide is not the principal driver of global warming. However, unwilling to give up on their war against carbon dioxide, the warmists have devised a fudge factor - an unknown and unobservable latent heat effect - that would explain why it is cooler now than the Pliocene (CO2 models falling short, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009) noting that not now, but a few hundred years from now, extra heat from the carbon dioxide that is already in the air now will make the data come out right and validate their climate model. It is clearly an exercise in pushing the Copenhagen agenda and not unbiased scientific inquiry.

Chaa-am Jamal
Thailand









Reference: Editorial to the world urges action on global warming, Bangkok Post, December 8, 2009

A global editorial on global warming calls for decisive action in Copenhagen to cut carbon dioxide emissions (Editorial to the world urges action on global warming, Bangkok Post, December 8, 2009) saying that "The question is no longer whether humans are to blame". Yet, that is precisely the question in Copenhagen. The agenda there is based entirely on the ability of human beings to control the world's mean surface temperature by attenuating their use of fossil fuels. The proposal to cut CO2 emissions would make no sense otherwise.

The editorial also claims that "climate change has been caused over centuries and has consequences that will endure for all time"and that inaction in Copenhagen will cause "half of all species to become extinct". These are highly charged and grossly inaccurate statements. Our use of fossil fuels could not have been causing climate change for centuries because we have not been using fossil fuels in any quantity for that long. As for specie diversity, earth's prior climate history for millions of years shows that episodes of climate change - particularly global warming - have been associated not with a reduction of specie diversity but with veritable explosions in the number of species during which many old species die off and many more new ones are created. These data have caused the theory of evolution to be revised to include the idea that mutations occur not at random but under environmental stress.

It would be a sad chapter in human history if we commit economic suicide Jim Jones style in the vain and Quixotic belief that we are in control of the planet's climate. Our climate has never endured and has never been stable and has always been dynamic and ever changing. The human race, even with all its knowledge and technology, is insignificant on a planetary scale. On what basis do we expect to be able to stabilize nature? We appear to be in the grip of some kind of mass insanity.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Sunday, December 06, 2009








Reference: Himalayan glacier melts to hit billions of poor, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009

In 2007, the IPCC issued a report citing data on the retreating Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains that showed that the rate of retreat had accelerated from 19 m/yr in 1971 to 34 m/yr in 2001. They extrapolated the observed acceleration forward and wrote that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide was only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas.

This scenario continues to be widely disseminated in the media (Himalayan glacier melts to hit billions of poor, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009) in spite of more recent data that show that the predicted acceleration has not occurred; with the IPCC going so far as to vilify Indian scientists who who published the data as climate change deniers.

In any case, the idea that glacial retreat in the Himalayas will cause the Ganges river to dry up is inconsistent with the observation that the river derives less than 5% of its water from glacial melt. Also of note is that a gradual decline in overall glacial mass worldwide began in 1850, well before fossil fuel consumption and atmospheric carbon dioxide rose to levels that the IPCC has identified with man-made global warming. Therefore it is not a carbon dioxide issue.


Cha-am Jamal
Thailand













Reference: Don't put the South on the road to permanent poverty, Bangkok Post, December 5, 2009

The global warming alarm began in the early 1990s at about the same time that Deng's new China began its economic ascent. Instead of welcoming China into the global economy, the West responded with paranoia, fearing that a billion Chinese living like Europeans would put a strain on the world's supply of energy and resources and threaten the comfortable lifestyle of the rich nations. It is possible that the global warming agenda of controlling how much fossil fuel gets used, is mechanism to ensure the rich nations' continued access to energy as well as to keep rich nations rich and poor nations poor.

Saturday, December 05, 2009








Reference: Climate change's dealmaker, Bangkok Post, December 5, 2009

The implication that higher carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth in Southeast Asia causes extremes weather in Southeast Asia (Climate change's dealmaker, Bangkok Post, December 5, 2009) is contrary to global warming theory which alleges only a global relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions and temperature. With less than 5% of the world's energy consumption, the region does not hold any leverage at all in global climate patterns even in the most extreme climate sensitivity assumptions. Therefore there can be no causal linkage between fossil fuel consumption in Southeast Asia and typhoons in the region.

As a footnote, the inclusion of a photo of the 2007 drought in southern China is disingenuous because no meaningful correlation can be drawn between carbon dioxide emissions and a history of droughts in southern China recorded in the fang zhi for thousands of years.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand

Thursday, December 03, 2009









Reference: Climate warming on harvest, Bangkok Post, December 3, 2009

The shrill warning about the catastrophic effects of global warming on Chinese agriculture boils down to the tautology that IF sufficiently extreme weather events occur and IF they devastate agriculture, THEN "the impact on the economic and social development of China would be incalculable". Much of the global warming hype is now being delivered as pure hypothetical statements of this nature; so much so that even their position appears to have retreated from a science argument ("the science is settled and we are right") to a Biblical one ("you can't afford to fret about whether we are right or wrong because we could turn out to be right").

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand