FEAR APPEAL CLIMATE SCIENCE AND WHY IT WORKS PART-1: THE ORIGIN OF CATASTROPHISM AND RELATED POST ON OUR INNER NEED TO FEAR: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/09/20/our-inner-need-to-fear/ IN THE 18TH CENTURY, NATURALIST, GEOLOGIST, AND BIOLOGIST, BARON GEORGE CUVIER OF FRANCE, DISCOVERED SOMETHING AMAZING. HE DUG DEEP INTO THE EARTH AND STUDIED THE SIGNATURES OF LIFE FORMS IN SUCCESSIVE STRATA OF THE DIG AND MADE AN AMAZING DISCOVERY. FROM ONE STRATUM TO THE NEXT HE FOUND COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FOSSIL FORMS OF LIFE. THE DATA IMPLIED A CATASTROPHIC END OF LIFE IN EACH STRATUM WITH AN EMERGENCE OF LIFE ON EARTH ALL OVER AGAIN IN THE NEXT STRATUM. THIS DISCOVERY IS THE ORIGIN OF CATASTROPHSISM, THE IDEA THAT LIFE ON EARTH EMERGES AND FLOURISHES AND THEN MEETS A CATASTROPHIC END TO CREATE A DEAD ZONE WITH LIFE EMERGING ALL OVER AGAIN AND THEN GOING THROUGH YET ANOTHER CATASTROPHE. THE CUVIER HYPOTHESIS IMPLIES THAT THOUGH WE ARE HERE ENJOYING LIFE IN THE GREEN VALLEY WITH THE BIRDS AND THE BEES AND THE FLOWERS AND THE TREES AND THE MOON UP ABOVE AND A THING CALLED THE INTERNET, IT’S ONLY FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE CATASTROPHE COMES AND IT’S ALL GONE INTO A DEAD ZONE FROM WHICH LIFE WILL HAVE TO EMERGE ALL OVER AGAIN. LIFE ON EARTH IS NOT A ONE SHOT DEAL. IT IS A CYCLE OF LIFE AND CATASTROPHE. THIS IS THE ORIGIIN OF CATASTROPHISM. THANK YOU MONSIEUR CUVIER. A USEFUL REFERENCE IS THE BOOK “MEGADISASTERS” BY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS: LINK TO SOURCE: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691133508/megadisasters HERE IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT IT SAYS Can we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and devastated the city of New Orleans. The recent global financial crisis has cost corporations and ordinary people around the world billions of dollars. Megadisasters is a book that asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction. Each chapter of this exciting and eye-opening book explores a particular type of cataclysmic event and the research surrounding it, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, rapid climate change, collisions with asteroids or comets, pandemics, and financial crashes. Florin Diacu tells the harrowing true stories of people impacted by these terrible events, and of the scientists racing against time to predict when the next big disaster will strike. He describes the mathematical models that are so critical to understanding the laws of nature and foretelling potentially lethal phenomena, the history of modeling and its prospects for success in the future, and the enormous challenges to scientific prediction posed by the chaos phenomenon, which is the high instability that underlies many processes around us. Yielding new insights into the perils that can touch every one of us, Megadisasters shows how the science of predicting disasters holds the promise of a safer and brighter tomorrow. SO WHAT? THE POINT HERE IN THIS CITATION IS THAT WE MODERN HUMANS CARRY THE CUVIER CATASTROPPHISM IDEA DEEP IN OUR HEART AND IN OUR PSYCHE BUT WITH AN INTERPRETATION THAT OVERLOOKS THE GEOLOGICALLY LONG TIME SCALE AND THE COMPLETE DESTRUCTIVENESS OF LIFE ON EARTH IN THE CUVIER DATA SUCH THAT NATURAL DISASTERS, SUCH AS A PARTICULARLY DESTRUCTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE, CAN TRIGGER CUVIER CATASTROPHSISM DEEP IN OUR HEARTS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FEAR OF THE END OF LIFE ON EARTH AND MAYBE THE END OF THE PLANET ITSELF. IN THIS CONTEXT, WE PROPOSE THAT MODERN FEARMONGERING OBSESSIONS SUCH AS THE THE ANTHROPOCENE, THE POPULATION BOMB END OF THE WORLD, THE 1970S GLOBAL COOLING END OF THE WORLD, AND THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING END OF THE WORLD, OF OTHERWISE INTELLIGENT AND CIVILIZED HUMANS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE CONTEXT OF A CATASTROPHISM GENE THAT LIVES DEEP IN OUR PSYCHE AND OVERCOMES RATIONAL THOUGHT AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. THE VEXING ISSUE WITH THE GROSS MISMATCH OF THE TIME SCALE OF CUVIER CATASTROPHISM TO ITS APPPLICATION IN THINGS LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE HAS BEEN SOLVED WITH THE THE WORD “GRADUAL” SO THAT THINGS LIKE ALARMING FORECASTS OF HUMAN POPULATION OR HUMAN ACTIVITY OR BIOLOGY OR GEOLOGY OR CLIMATE ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME SCALE WITH THE WORD “GRADUAL”. IN THIS CONSTRUCTION, WE CAN UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT AS GRADUAL CATASTROPHISM. BOTTOM LINE: WE HUMANS NEED TO LIVE IN FEAR AND SO THEREFORE WE NEED TO FIND THINGS TO FEAR.

THE FTX SCANDAL As bad as it is, it serves as a reminder that our financial regulation does not derive from theory or pure financial wisdom but from financial crisis. A brief history of this scenario is seen from 1930 to 1980. THE 1930S Between 1929 and 1939 it was a period of great economic depression worldwide that became evident after a major fall in stock prices in the United States.[2] The economic contagion began around September and led to the Wall Street stock market crash of October 24 (Black Thursday). The economic shock impacted most countries across the world to varying degrees. It was the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century. THE 1980S CRISIS The 2008 financial crisis caused a complete meltdown of the American economy that showed no positive response to the intervention by the Federal Reserve and the government in general with regulatory innovations. It turned out that the financial crisis and economic collapse of 2007/2008 was a replay of similar events in 1929/1930. Both of these crises were the result of the mark to market accounting rule. In both cases, the government’s effort to solve the problem with regulatory intervention failed and possibly worsened the crisis – and in both cases, simply rescinding the mark-to-market rule (by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1938 and by Barney Frank on April 2, 2009) brought about a recovery from the crisis and healthy economic growth immediately followed. The lesson is that free market systems are not operated by the government but by innovators and risk taking investors in new ideas and the financial system that funds these ventures. The government’s job is not to operate the economy but to provide the right kind of regulatory infrastructure where innovators and investors can thrive. FINANCIAL WISDOM CAN BE PROPOSED IN THE ABSENCE OF CRISIS BUT IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON FINANCE BECAUSE OUR FEAR OF FINANCE GONE WRONG RESTRICTS US TO FINANCIAL CRISES AS THE ONLY GATEWAY TO FINANCIAL INNOVTION. IT TAKES A CRISIS TO IMPLEMENT FINANCIAL INNOVATION. AS FOR EXAMPLE: A New Discounting Model for Teaching Finance Date Written: March 27, 2014 Abstract The mathematics of continuous compounding is not limited to the valuation of continuously compounded financial instruments and flow annuities, but rather it is a versatile and robust model that may be used for valuation of all financial contracts normally encountered. It consists of a simple, consistent, coherent and conceptually appealing set of equations that apply without modification to the complete range of applications. The discrete stepwise model of compounding, by contrast, is a redundant innovation that is more complicated than the generalized model and limited in scope. LINK: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2417143

THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES OF THE UN Remember when the ILO did labor, the FAO did agriculture, the WHO did health, the World Bank did infrastructure loans for developing countries, the WMO did Meteorology, and the UNDP did economic development of poor countries? Now they all do Climate. This post is an examination of this anomaly in terms of the structure and function of the UN that are not constrained and that contain no provision for accountability, oversight, discipline, or budgetary constraint. These structural flaws have created a rogue public service organization that serves itself and not the public and they make it possible for the UN to use its self declared global environmental authority to invent global environmental crises that inflate its budget and serve its bureaucratic needs. That the World Health Organization (WHO) is busy with climate change these days with predictions that climate change is causing starvation and malnutrition, is best understood in this context. The WHO is no longer a World Health Organization but an agency of the UN that takes its orders from Antonio Guterres the climate guy. (1) IN THE BEGINNING: A history of world wars among nation states and the yearning for a global peace keeper to prevent such wars is the context that gave birth the the idea of a global peace keeper. This peacekeeper is envisioned as an independent body, representing all nation states but beholden to none, such that it can intervene, resolve disputes, and prevent war among nations. Yet, it should obvious that if these independence criteria are met, the peace keeping body becomes a public service organization with no mechanism for accountability, oversight or discipline, a condition well known to cultivate corruption and a self-serving agenda. The unanswered question is ” If we need a UN run by mortals to discipline nations run by mortals, who will discipline the mortals at the UN? “ (2) CORRUPTION IN PUBLIC SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS: It is well known and well established that public service organizations without adequate accountability, oversight, and discipline mechanisms in place serve themselves and not the public. This flaw in the global peace keeper idea has been overlooked. If the global peacekeeper body will discipline the world’s nation states, who will discipline the global peacekeeper? This question was asked by Henry Cabot Lodge a hundred years ago but it has since been forgotten and it remains to this day an unanswered question. This is the fundamental flaw in the global peacekeeper idea. It gave us the monster that is the UN. (3) CONSEQUENCES OF STRUCTURAL WEAKNESS: Here we examine the consequences of this structural weakness with specific applications to the ambition of the United Nations to extend its role from global peacekeeper to that of a global environmental protection agency with the argument that certain global environmental issues transcend national boundaries and can only be assessed and controlled on a global basis. Here we argue that this extension of the function of a world peacekeeper is inconsistent with the idea of a world of humans that consists of independent nation states. (4) THE PARIS AGREEMENT OF 1919: The global peacekeeper idea was born after the first global war in World-War-1 when the League of Nations was formed after the 14-points speech by progressive Democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1918 in which he envisioned a global body that would resolve disputes and prevent warfare. Henry Cabot Lodge (HCL) argued against the plan saying that such a powerful global body overseeing nation states without oversight and discipline by the nation states will end up subverting national sovereignty. Although the global peacekeeper idea was thus stalled in the US by the HCL argument, it created a great sense of euphoria and strong support for the Wilson proposal on the other side of the Atlantic where they had a hippie moment envisioning global love and peace. And that that led to the Paris Agreement of 1919 and the Geneva Covenant of 1920 and The League of Nations was thus created with a membership of 48 countries. History Dot Com writes that the League had a mixed record of success and failure, sometimes putting self-interest before becoming involved with conflict resolution, while also contending with governments that did not recognize its authority. It died peacefully during World War II which it had failed to prevent. [LINK TO HISTORY DOT COM] . (5) AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR: The 2nd World War ended in 1945 and the idea of a global body to prevent future wars re-surfaced. Meetings of the victors were held to draft a charter for the new improved League of Nations to be called the United Nations this time. The failure of the League of Nations was attributed, not to too much power of a public service organization with inadequate supervision and accountability but to not enough power. The final decisive meeting that created the Charter for the United Nations was held in San Francisco in 1945. The UN we know today was thus created with an initial membership of 51 countries. The Charter lists 4 functions and duties of the United Nations. They are (1)Maintain international peace and security. (2)Develop friendly relations among nations. (3)Achieve international cooperation in solving international problems. (4)Be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends. (6) FLAWS IN THE 1945 CHARTER CREATED AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY: This charter reveals two significant problems with regard to the accountability and oversight issue. It appears that these organizational weaknesses had been built into the structure and function of the UN at the very outset by the Charter itself. The UN was conceived for the single purpose of preventing future wars. That function is found in Charter-Item#1: Maintain international peace and security. The other three functions, #2, #3, and #4 having to do with “friendly relations”, “international cooperation”, “problem solving”, and “harmonizing actions” etc have been arbitrarily thrown in by the Charter writers and they are at the root of the structural flaws that have created the rogue organization we see today. (7): PROBLEMS CREATED BY CHARTER ITEMS 2, 3, & 4: The problems created by Charter items #2, #3, and #4 are first, that they have expanded the role of the UN well beyond its conceptual definition as the prevention of warfare particularly with reference to world wars among multiple nations; and this fundamental structural expansion of this new public service organization was done without inserting anything in the Charter in terms of constraints, limits, accountability, oversight, and discipline measures. There is nothing in the Charter that draws the line beyond which the UN may not go. It says what they can do but does not say what they can’t do. This error is confounded by yet another fatal error in the charter: There is no oversight and accountability measure in the Charter. This combination of the absence of limits and the absence of oversight is a dangerous formula for public service organizations because it is a formula for rogue organizations. (8) PUBLIC SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS WITHOUT OVERSIGHT & ACCOUNTABILITY SERVE THEMSELVES AND NOT THE PUBLIC. As a rule, in public service organizations, particularly so for unelected bodies, the powers, budget, and reach of the organization must be balanced against the accountability, oversight, and discipline (AOD) measures such that the greater the powers, reach, and budget the greater and more effective must be the AOD measures. Instead, what the Charter has done is to throw in arbitrary UN functions #2, #3, and #4 in vague language and with no corresponding AOD measures such that UN bureaucrats can interpret and extend these vague functions as they wish; and with no accountability. There are no constraints in the Charter. For example, it does not say that the UN must not violate national sovereignty of the member states such that the UN was able to launch the “Smart Cities” program in which it went around the Trump Administration’s rejection of the Paris Agreement to work directly with local government in the USA to implement the Paris Agreement. (9) A rogue public service organization is here defined as one that serves its bureaucrats and not the public that it was formed to serve. An added weakness is that UN bureaucrats are appointed for the relatively long period of 5-year terms and often re-appointed multiple times. These terms should be greatly reduced with no possibility of re-appointment. The organization is funded by a few member states but the UN is not accountable to those taxpayers and the budget of the UN is not constrained. The unconstrained budget makes it possible for the UN to invent new functions and programs and will and pass the new expanded budget in the general assembly. The function and reach of the UN are also not constrained by the Charter. The UN must be reformed in ways that it serves its constituents and not itself. (10) THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN: THE UN’S MISSION IS TO IMPOSE CLIMATE ACTION AND THE IPCC’S JOB IS TO PROVIDE A “SCIENTIFIC” RATIONALE FOR CLIMATE ACTION. THE EXPLANATION FOR THE ODDITY THAT ALL CLIMATE IMPACTS ARE BAD, THAT ALL BAD THINGS ARE CLIMATE IMPACTS, AND THAT IN THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE IMPACTS THERE ARE NO GOOD IMPACTS AND NO ATTRIBUTION FAILURES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IS THAT IPCC SCIENCE IS NOT UNBIASED OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY BUT AGENDA DRIVEN TO PROVIDE THE RATIONALE NEEDED BY THE UN FOR ITS PRE-DETERMINED CLIMATE ACTION AGENDA SUCH THAT THE CLIMATE ACTION MEASURES DEMANDED ARE NOT DERIVED FROM THE CLIMATE SCIENCE BUT RATHER, IT IS THE CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT IS DERIVED FROM PRE-DETERMINED CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDS OF THE UN. [LINK] . (11) THE WMO IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its State of the Climate report for 2018. The report begins with a statement by the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres which states that: “The data released in this report give cause for great concern. The past four years were the warmest on record, with the global average surface temperature in 2018 approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial baseline. These data confirm the urgency of climate action. This was also emphasized by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C. The IPCC found that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require rapid and far-reaching transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities, and that global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching “net zero” around 2050. To promote greater global ambition on addressing climate change, I am convening a Climate Action Summit on 23 September. The Summit aims to mobilize the necessary political will for raising ambition as we work to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Specifically, I am calling on all leaders to come to New York in September with concrete, realistic plans to enhance their nationally determined contributions by 2020 and reach net zero emissions around mid-century. The Summit will also demonstrate transformative action in all the areas where it is needed. There is no longer any time for delay. I commend this report as an indispensable contribution to global efforts to avert irreversible climate disruption. (A. Guterres United Nations Secretary-General) [LINK] (12) THE UN IS AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY: THE UNITED NATIONS IS AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY. It is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale. [LINK] . REFORM PROPOSALS BY THE US CONGRESS Blanchfield, Luisa. United Nations reform: US policy and international perspectives. DIANE Publishing, 2010. Since its establishment in 1945, the United Nations has been in a constant state of transition as various international stakeholders seek ways to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the U.N. system. Recent controversies, such as corruption of the Iraq Oil-For-Food Program, allegations of sexual abuse by U.N. peacekeepers, and instances of waste, fraud and abuse by U.N. staff, have focused renewed attention on the need for change and improvement of the United Nations. Many in the international community, including the United States, have increased pressure on U.N. member states to implement substantive reforms. The 111th Congress will most likely continue to focus on U.N. reform as it considers appropriate levels of U.S. funding to the United Nations and monitors the progress and implementation of ongoing and previously-approved reform measures. In September 2005, heads of U.N. member states met for the World Summit at U.N. Headquarters in New York to discuss strengthening the United Nations through institutional reform. The resulting Summit Outcome Document laid the groundwork for a series of reforms that included establishing a Peace-building Commission, creating a new Human Rights Council, and enlarging the U.N. Security Council. Member states also agreed to Secretariat and management reforms including improving internal U.N. oversight capacity, establishing a U.N. ethics office, enhancing U.N. whistle-blower protection, and reviewing all U.N. mandates five years or older. Blanchfield, Luisa. United Nations reform: background and issues for congress. Congressional Research Service, 2015 LuisaPDF Summary: Since its establishment in 1945, the United Nations (U.N.) has undergone numerous reforms to improve its efficiency and effectiveness. Recent controversies include corruption in the Iraq Oil-For-Food Program, allegations of sexual abuse by U.N. peacekeepers, and instances of waste, fraud, and abuse by U.N. staff. There is an urgent need for the reform of the United Nations. The 114th Congress may focus on U.N. reform as it considers levels of U.S. funding to the United Nations and monitors the progress and implementation of reform measures. Some Members are particularly interested in U.N. Secretariat and management reform, with a focus on improving transparency and strengthening accountability and oversight. In the past, Congress has enacted legislation that links U.S. funding of the United Nations to specific U.N. reform benchmarks. Supporters of this strategy contend that the United Nations has been slow to implement reforms and that linking payment of U.S. assessments to progress on U.N. reform is the most effective way to motivate member states to efficiently pursue comprehensive reform. The World Summit at U.N. Headquarters in New York to discuss strengthening the United Nations through institutional reform. BOTTOM LINE : The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy: WE NEED TO GET RID OF IT AND START OVER

The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy Abstract The United Nations is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale. Munshi, Jamal, The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy (June 13, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2794991

WHAT THE TCRE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE Posted by: chaamjamal on: November 18, 2021 THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS FOUNDED ON THE THEORY OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION SUCH THAT THERE IS A UNIVERSAL CONSTANT CALLED “EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY” OR “ECS” THAT RELATES EACH DOUBLING OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE TO A FIXED AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER, WHAT WE SEE IN THE ATTEMPT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE TO USE THIS THEORY IS THAT, THOUGH THE THE THEORY OF ECS IS FOUNDED ON KNOWN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE AND THE KNOWN PROPERTIES OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND THOUGH IT IS DEFENSIBLE IN TERMS OF THIS THEORY, ITS PRACTICAL APPLICATION TO THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL OR ITS INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN OBSERVED EMPIRICAL VALUES OF THE ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL ECS PARAMETER. WHAT THE ECS UNCERTAINTY MEANS IS THAT IF WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE VALUE OF THE ECS IS WE DON’T KNOW HOW GLOBAL WARMING WORKS AND BOTH THE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE CLIMATE ACTION ACTIVISM OF CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT CLAIM CREDIBILITY BECAUSE THEY ARE SCIENCE, ARE LEFT WITH A SCIENCE THAT HAS NO EMPIRICAL SUPPORT. THESE WEAKNESSES IN THE FOUNDATIONAL THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING MOTIVATED CLIMATE SCIENCE TO LEAVE THIS THEORETICAL BASIS OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS BEHIND AND TO USE THE TCRE PARAMETER PROPOSED BY PROFESSOR DAMON MATTHEWS. THE TCRE SHOWS A NEARLY PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN WARMING AND CUMULATIVE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS RELATIONSHIP HAS NO THEORETICAL BASIS, THE DISCOVERY OF THE STRONG CORRELATION RESCUED CLIMATE SCIENCE FROM THEIR ECS FAILURE AND PROVIDED THEM WITH THE NEEDED CAUSATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND WARMING FOR THE PROPOSITION THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE WARMING AND FOR THE DEMAND THAT THE NEEDED CLIMATE ACTION IS FOR HUMANS TO STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THIS NEAR PERFECT CORRELATION IS CALLED THE {TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS} OR TCRE FOR SHORT. IT DERIVES ONLY FROM THE DISCOVERY OF A STRONG AND ALMOST PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN THE CHANGE IN GMST (WARMING) AND CUMULATIVE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. A USEFUL AND MUCH NEEDED APPLICATION OF THIS NEW CORREATION WAS QUICKLY DISCOVERED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF “CARBON BUDGET” ESTIMATIONS. A CARBON BUDGET IS THE AMOUNT OF EMISSIONS THAT CORRESPOND TO A GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO THEORETICAL BASIS FOR THIS OBSERVED CORRELATION, AND IN RELATED POSTS WE SHOW THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INTERPRET THIS OBSERVED CORRELATION IN TERMS OF THE PHENOMENA OF NATURE THAT IT APPARENTLY REPRESENTS BECAUSE OF ITS MANY STATISTICAL ANOMALIES AND WEAKNESSES. {LINKS BELOW} THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE FAUX “CORRELATION” IS A CREATION OF A SIGN PATTERN WHERE EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE BY DEFINITION, AND IN A PERIOD OF WARMING, THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EACH YEAR IS MOSTLY POSITIVE ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS SO. AND THAT NOT EVERY YEAR IS A WARMING YEAR THUS SET THE TRAP FOR THE IMMEDIATE APPLICATION OF THIS NEW CORRELATION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF CONSTRUCTING WHAT IS CALLED THE “CARBON BUDGET”. WHAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS QUICKLY DISCOVERED IN THE CARBON BUDGET APPLICATION OF THE TCRE AND WHAT APPEARED TO THEM TO BE A MYSTERY IS THE SO CALLED “REMAINING CARBON BUDGET ANOMALY”. BRIEFLY, THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT IF YOU USE UP A PART OF YOUR CARBON BUDGET, THE REMAINING CARBON BUDGET CANNOT BE COMPUTED BY SUBTRACTION BUT MUST BE RECOMPUTED WITH THE TCRE RECOMPUTED FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE CARBON BUDGET PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO CLIMATE SCIENCE TO BE AN UNRESOLVED MYSTERY ALTHOUGH THE ISSUE IS SIMPLY THAT THOUGH ANNUAL WARMINGS ARE MOSTLY POSITIVE THEY ARE NOT ALWAYS SO AND THERE ARE RANDOM YEARS WHERE IT MAY HAVE COOLED. FOR THIS REASON, THE FRACTION OF POSITIVE WARMING YEARS IN THE FULL SPAN OF THE BUDGET PERIOD IS UNLIKELY TO EQUAL THE FRACTION OF WARMING YEARS IN A SELECTED PORTION OF THE FULL SPAN BUDGET PERIOD. WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE THINKS IS A MYSTERY IS THE CLUE THAT THE TCRE IS A SPURIOUS CORRELATION THAT HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN THE REAL WORLD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES HAS NEITHER TIME SCALE NOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM AND THAT THEREFORE, THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE VALUES HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN THE REAL WORLD. AN EVEN MORE EGREGIOUS MATHEMATICAL ERROR IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATION OF THE TCRE IS ITS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY. BRIEFLY, IN THE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE, GMST IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION BUT IN THE TCRE, GMST IS A LINEAR FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION BECAUSE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS A CREATION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS. RELATED POST LINKED BELOW: MUCH OF WHAT IS PROPOSED AS CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE THE WORD "SCIENCE" IS MEANT TO IMPLY GOD LIKE TRUTH THAT CANNOT BE QUESTIONED, VIOLATE BASIC SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES. WE CONCLUDE THAT WHAT THE TCRE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT THEIR NEED FOR SCIENCE IS NOT TO DISCOVER HOW THINGS WORK BUT TO VALIDATE WHAT THEY HAVE ALREADY DECIDED ABOUT HOW THINGS WORK.

WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 27 in the year 2022 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 26 in the year 2021 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 25 in the year 2019 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 24 in the year 2018 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 23 in the year 2017 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 22 in the year 2016 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 21 in the year 2015 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 20 in the year 2014 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 19 in the year 2013 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 18 in the year 2012 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 17 in the year 2011 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 16 in the year 2010 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 15 in the year 2009 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 14 in the year 2008 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 13 in the year 2007 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 12 in the year 2006 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 11 in the year 2005 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 10 in the year 2004 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 9 in the year 2003 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 8 in the year 2002 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 7 in the year 2001 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. WHAT WAS ACHIEVED AT COP 6 in the year 2000 We're honoured to have attended the most significant climate action event of the year. We hope to work with more people - students, policy-makers, scientists, researchers, industry, philanthropists and global leaders to find urgent solutions to the global challenge posed by climate change that is known to be caused by our use of fossil fuels and that can and must be solved by removing fossil fuels from our energy infrastructure. AND THIS COP DRAMA AT A COSTS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS GIVEN TO THE UN GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO COP 1 /b> THEIR ONLY CLAIM TO COP SUCCESS IS THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND THEY COULD DO THAT BECAUSE THEY CHEATED AND LIED TO US. The only AGREEMENT in the Paris Agreement is that the participating countries AGREED TO SUBMIT INDCs. That is all that the participating countries agreed to do. And in fact all the countries that had agreed to submit INDCs did in fact submit INDCs. BUT WHAT IS AN INDC???? The key to understanding the Paris agreement is to understand what an INDC is and what it isn’t (1): First of all, the way we understand what the word agreement means is that there is one document – one statement, that all the participants signed and agreed to abide by. But there is no such document in the Paris Agreement. (2): This oddity of what is called an agreement is a creation of the failure of the COPs (United Nations Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC) and that failure is best understood in the context of the history of the UN’s ambition to be a kind of global Environmental Protection Agency by way of the UNEP (united nations environment program). (3): The UNEP began life with a bang when the UN put together a Global Agreement called the Montreal Protocol where all the nations signed the same document agreeing to change refrigerants. This agreement is credited with having solved the ozone depletion crisis. This apparent success of the newly formed UNEP led to the assumption that the UN could likewise put together a “Montreal Protocol for climate change” (MPFC) with a global agreement to reduce global fossil fuel emissions. (4): To get such an agreement signed by all nations, the UN put together a global agreement signed by almost all nations called the UNFCCC where the signatories agreed that climate change is a global problem that needs a global solution. The nations that signed this agreement are called Parties to the UNFCCC. The next and final step in resolving the climate crisis was to call a “Conference of Parties” or COP, for the parties to sign a binding emission reduction agreement. Sadly, the COP ended without a signed “Montreal Protocol for the Climate (MPFC). (5): This failure was a significant event. Flustered and confused in the abject failure of the COP, the UN bureaucrats decided to call for another COP to be called COP2 and line up some more impressive speakers about the dangers of climate change and make some modifications to the emission reduction agreement to get the parties to sign the modified MPFC. But COP2 also failed. (6): The UN bureaucrats were unable to comprehend the enormous difference between changing refrigerants and overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure. and ventured into a program of tweeking the contract and bringing in more impressive speakers and more scary assessments of what will happen to us and the world and maybe the planet if we don’t do the MPFC. The short version of this story is that after COP3, COP4, COP5, COP6, COP7, COP8, COP9, COP10, COP11, COP12, COP13, COP14, and the very dramatic COP15 in Copenhagen that was described by climate scientists, climate activists, and the UN bureaucrats as a DO OR DIE meeting. It died. (7): But the climate movement and the UN could not accept this devastating failure and the UN bureaucrats decided that what they needed was a change in strategy. It was the devastating failure in Copenhagen that convinced the UN bureaucrats that more and more speakers with greater and greater fear of climate change will not work and will not deliver the MPFC. It was in Copenhagen that the subtle shift in strategy had to be made to keep toning down the demands in the MPFC until the all the Parties would sign the climate agreement. Copenhagen - Wikipedia (8): And so the climate agreement dream was not over yet and on we went to COP16, COP17, COP18, COP19, COP20, COP21, COP22, COP23, and COP24. But still no MPFC and still without an agreement. (9): A dramatic shift in strategy came in COP25 in Paris. The new desperate strategy was this: If they won’t sign the contract we wrote let them write the contract that they will sign. And so it was that in COP25 in Paris, France that this new strategy was implemented where each nation could independently and in isolation write the agreement that it was willing to sign and then sign it. The collection of these “INDC”s that don’t agree is then assumed to be an AGREEMENT of some kind so the UN can say that they did their job and delivered the MPFC.. (10): The contradictions in this claim have gone unchallenged and so it is to this day that we still accept a collection of INDCs that don’t agree and that are not binding as some kind of global climate action contract that can be claimed to be the delivery of the promised MPFC. AND THE OTHERWISE INTELLIGENT HUMANS ARE PLAYING ALONG WITH THIS UTTERLY MEANINGLESS UNITED NATIONS CHARADE THAT IS COSTING US BILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. WE NEED TO GET RID OF THE UNITED NATIONS. The United Nations is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale.

THE ARCTIC OCEAN WARMS FROM BELOW THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE FINDINGS IN “The Arctic Ocean warms from below Eddy C. Carmack William J. Williams Sarah L. Zimmermann Fiona A. McLaughlin, Geophysical Research Letters, 2012. LINK TO FULL TEXT: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL050890 ABSTRACT: The old (∼450‐year isolation age) and near‐homogenous deep waters of the Canada Basin (CBDW), that are found below ∼2700 m, warmed at a rate of ∼0.0004°C yr−1 between 1993 and 2010. This rate is slightly less than expected from the reported geothermal heat flux (Fg ∼ 50 mW m−2). A deep temperature minimum Tmin layer overlies CBDW within the basin and is also warming at approximately the same rate, suggesting that some geothermal heat escapes vertically through a multi‐stepped, ∼300‐m‐thick deep transitional layer. Double diffusive convection and thermobaric instabilities are identified as possible mechanisms governing this vertical heat transfer. The CBDW found above the lower continental slope of the deep basin maintains higher temperatures than those in the basin interior, consistent with geothermal heat being distributed through a shallower water column, and suggests that heat from the basin interior does not diffuse laterally and escape at the edges. The deep waters of the Arctic Ocean form in the Nordic seas and enter the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. The Arctic Ocean itself contains two main basins; the Eurasian and Canadian, separated by the Lomonosov Ridge with a sill depth of ∼2000 m. The Canadian Basin has the largest volume and contains the oldest deep water, with 14C isolation age estimates of ∼450 years. In turn, the Canadian Basin is separated by the Alpha‐Mendeleyev ridge complex into the Makarov and Canada Basins. The deep waters of the Canada Basin (CBDW) are near‐homogeneous, varying in potential temperature by less than 0.001°C between ∼2700 m and the bottom, a feature ascribed to geothermal heating and vertical convection. The geothermal heat flux in the Canadian Basin is 40–60 mW/m2. Salinity in the Canadian Basin increases with depth to ∼2700 m, but is nearly constant below this depth. A near‐homogenous bottom waters temperature is observed in the Eurasian Basin but with a temperature change in the bottom layer attributed to geothermal heating. In the Canada Basin bottom waters that temperature is near‐constant with time. Some heat escapes vertically through the overlying deep transitional layer and that heat was lost mainly around the perimeter of the basin. Here, using data from annual surveys of the southern Canada Basin between 2002 and 2010, we re‐examine role of geothermal heating in CBDW, describe temporal and spatial patterns in water mass properties, and propose heat exchange mechanisms that involve diffusive and thermobaric instabilities. FINDINGS: CBDW appears as a thick, near‐homogenous bottom layer extending from ∼2700 m to the bottom. Above lies an ∼300‐m‐thick deep transitional layer that is characterized by a temperature–salinity step structure, and the top of this layer is marked by a temperature minimum (Tmin) at ∼2400 m, the sill depth at Cooperation Gap on the Alpha‐Mendeleyev Ridge complex. The staircase structure, through which both the mean temperature and mean salinity increase with depth, is observed at all stations across the entire basin and has been a persistent feature for at least two decades. The step structure is typically characterized by three to four mixed layers that are 10–60 m thick and are separated by 2–20 m‐thick interfaces over which changes are δθ ∼ 0.003°C and δS ∼ 0.0007. The θ/S properties of the deep basin show that stratification below the Tmin is marginally stable with respect to density calculated at 3000 m and that those of the Tmin itself closely match those of the Makarov Basin at sill depth, pointing to this as the likely source maintaining the Tmin layer. For any given year the θ of CBDW within the deep basin is laterally near‐uniform, varying by less than 0.0007°C across the full study area, reflecting the isolation of the basin and also the ubiquity of geothermal heating. The θ of the Tmin, however, shows greater spatial variability. Evolution of the Deep Water in the Canadian Basin in the Arctic Ocean in: Journal of Physical Oceanography Volume 36 Issue 5 (2006) (a) Schematic of Canada Basin Bottom Water (CBDW) structure and processes; MB is the Makarov Basin, A/M is the Alpha Mendeleyev Ridge, CB is the Canada Basin, Slope is the continental slope in the south and east. E and D are entrainment and detrainment associated with a hypothetical descending plume of cold salty water from the shelf. (b–d) Changes in potential temperature (red), salinity (blue) and density in the central Canada Basin at JOIS station CB‐15 at 77N, 140W (see Figure 1b, green dot) in 2003 (thin lines) and 2010 (thick lines). The profile from 2000 m to the bottom is shown in Figure 2b, the deep transitional layer (DTL) from 2450 to 2750 m is shown in Figure 2c and potential temperature vs. salinity is shown in Figure 2d with contours of potential density referenced to 3000 db. Time sequence of potential temperature profiles in the deep Canada Basin from 2002 to 2010 reveals the steady increase in temperature of the CBDW. This rate of warming is consistent with geothermal heat flux. A least‐squares fit to all available CBDW temperature data from 1993–2010 for stations deeper than 3000 m gives a rate of warming of ∼0.0004°C/yr; a similar rate of warming is observed in the Tmin, but with a much larger spatial variation. CONCLUSIONS: THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS GEOLOGICALLY ACTIVE WITH SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE PLANET. THE ARCTIC OCEAN WARMS FROM BELOW. THEREFORE ARCTIC OCEAN TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS AND ICE MELT EVENTS CANNOT BE UNDERSTOOD IN ATMOSPHERIC TERMS. YET, WHAT WE SEE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS AN EXCLUSIVE RELIANCE ON ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA TO EXPLAIN ALL OCEAN WARMING AND ICE MELT PHENOMENA IN THE ARCTIC. THIS ANALYSIS BY CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTISTS IS NOT CREDIBLE AND INDICATIVE OF THE CORRUPTION OF SCIENCE BY ACTIVISM.

WHAT WE LEARNED BY FEEDING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO THE UNITED NATIONS AND OTHER CLIMATE CHANGE MILLIONAIRES #1: WE LEARNED THAT AFTER TAKING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FROM US THE ONLY THING THE UN CAN OFFER IS THAT (#1) THEY DO HAVE A DEAL SO THEY HAVE NOT FAILED ALTHOUGH THE DEAL DID NOT DO US ANY GOOD BECAUSE THE WORLD IS STILL ON THE BRINK OF CATALSTROPHE. SO AFTER 27 COPS, THE UN BUREAUCRATS THAT HAD SAID AT COP1, COP2, COP3, COP4, COP5, COP6, COP7, COP8, COP9, COP10, COP11, COP12, COP13, COP14, COP15, COP16, COP17, CIO18, COP19, COP20, COP21, COP22, COP23, COP24, COP25, AND COP26 THAT ALL THEY NEEDED WAS ONE MORE COP AT COP27 TO SOLVE THE CLIMATE CRISIS, ARE NOW SAYING THAT COP27 HAS ALSO FAILED AND THAT THEREFORE THEY WILL NEED A COP28 DOWN THE ROAD TO SAVE THE PLANET FROM CLIMATE CATASTROPHE. ALL THEY NEED IS MONEY AND COPS AND THEY CAN SOLVE THE CLIMATE CRISIS. CONCLUSION: WE MUST KEEP THE MONEY ROLLING AND WE MUST KEEP THE UN BUREAUCRATS HAPPY OR THE PLANET IS TOAST. SOME DETAILS AT SSRN: LINK: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2794991

IPCC6 2021: POST#1: TCRE PART-1: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS This Report reaffirms with high confidence the AR5 finding that there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause. Each 1000 GtCO2 of cumulative CO2 emissions is assessed to likely cause a 0.27°C to 0.63°C increase in global surface temperature with a best estimate of 0.45°C41. This is a narrower range compared to AR5 and SR1.5. This quantity is referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE). This relationship implies that reaching net zero42 anthropogenic CO2 emissions is a requirement to stabilize human-induced global temperature increase at any level, but that limiting global temperature increase to a specific level would imply limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to within a carbon budget. PART-1: CRITICAL COMMENTARY THE TCRE DERIVES FROM A LINEAR CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THIS CORRELATION, PRESENTED BY THE IPCC AS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING ACTUALLY VIOLATES THE FUNDAMENTAL THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING DRIVEN BY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE. IN THE TCRE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LINEAR FUNCTION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS BUT IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING DRIVEN BY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION, THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS. THIS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY INVALIDATES THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING PRESENTED BY THE IPCC ON BEHALF OF CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE REASON CLIMATE SCIENCE PREFERS THE TCRE OVER THE THEORETICAL PARAMETER THE ECS (EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY) IS THAT THE THEORETICAL PARAMETER, THE ECS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, REMAINS AN UNSETTLED ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE BECAUSE THEY DON’T REALLY KNOW WHAT ITS VALUE IS EXACTLY. THESE KINDS OF STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL ERRORS ARE THE NORM IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN BUREAUCRATS. PART-2: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities. Since 2011 (measurements reported in AR5), concentrations have continued to increase in the atmosphere, reaching annual averages of 410 ppm for carbon dioxide (CO2), 1866 ppb for methane (CH4), and 332 ppb for nitrous oxide (N2O) in 2019. Land and ocean have taken up a near-constant proportion (globally about 56% per year) of CO2 emissions from human activities over the past six decades, with regional differences. Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 °C higher than 1850-1900. Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in 2011-2020 than 1850–1900. The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is due to methodological advances and new datasets that contributed 0.1ºC . PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY HERE WE FIND THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS BEING COMPARED WITH A HISTORICAL PERIOD GOING BACK TO 1750 AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS BEING COMPARED WITH A HISTORICAL PERIOD GLOING BACK TO 1850-1900. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION IS THAT ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING STARTED IN 1950. THIS MORE RECENT REFERENCE YEAR IS JUSTIFIED IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF WHAT IS CALLED THE ETCW ISSUE OR EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING. IN ESSENCE, THE ETCW ISSUE IS THAT THE CLIMATE SCIENCE GHG THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING THAT RELATES TEMPERATURE TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DOES NOT WORK IN THE PERIOD 1750-1950 OR FROM 1850 TO 1950 OR FROM 1900 TO 1950 AND LATER BECAUSE THE EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING IS TOO STRONG TO BE DESCRIBED IN TERMS OF THE GHG EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS RESPONDED TO THIS ISSUE NOT WITH A SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION BUT BY SIMPLY REMOVING THE DIFFICULT DATA PERIOD FROM FURTHER CONSIDERATION AND SIMPLY MOVING THE “PRE-INDUSTRIAL” YEAR WHEN GLOBAL WARMING BEGAN TO THE YEAR 1950. IT APPEARS THAT THE IPCC SCIENTISTS ARE NOT AWARE OF THIS VERY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN BUREAUCRATS. PART-3: WHAT THE REPORT SAYS Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities PART-3: CRITICAL COMMENTARY THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL DRIVING FORCE THAT RELATES GLOBAL WARMING TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS THE ASSUMPTION THAT OBSERVED CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION ARE CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. YET, NO EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED FOR THIS CAUSATION. THIS ESSENTIAL RELATIONSHIP IN AGW THEORY IS ESTABLISHED ONLY WITH THE POWER OF THE WORD “UNEQUIVOCALLY”, ADMITEDDLY A VERY POWERFUL WORD, BUT THE POWER IN A SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF THIS NATURE SHOULD BE BASED ON DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS. FOR EXAMPLE, IT MUST BE SHOWN WITH DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AT THE PROPOSED TIME SCALE. IN A RELATED POST WE SHOW THAT NO SUCH CORRELATION IS FOUND IN THE DATA AND IN FACT, NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE IS FOUND FOR THE ASSUMED AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50%. PART-4: NO CORRELATION FOUND IN THE DATA FOR THE RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. RELATED POST#1: MAUNA LOA CO2 DATA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/ RELATED POST#2: THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/ bandicam 2018-06-26 09-38-07-779 RELATED POST#3: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/ CONCLUSION: NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA THAT ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS ASSUMED CRITICAL RELATIONSHIP IN AGW THEORY IS ESTABLISHED IN THE IPCC REPORT NOT WITH EVIDENCE BUT WITH THE WORD “UNEQUIVOCALLY”. THE BLIND WORSHIP OF THE IPCC AS SOME KIND OF SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY OVERLOOKS THE REALITY THAT THE IPCC IS AN AGENCY OF THE UN AND THEIR BOSS IS ANTONIO GUTERRES; MEANING THAT THEIR SCIENCE MUST MEET THE REQUIREMENTS OF UN THE IPCC IS NOT HERE TO CARRY OUT UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY TO DISCOVER THE TRUTH BUT TO CONVINCE THE WORLD THAT WHAT THE UNITED NATIONS BUREAUCRATS NEED THE TRUTH TO BE IS INDEED WHAT THE TRUTH IS. IN OTHER WORDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT DESTROYING THE PLANET, BUT RATHER, WHAT WE FIND IS THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS DESTROYING HUMAN CIVILIZATION.

Available at SSRN 2873672 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2997420 Although the science of the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 is well established, all efforts to relate this phenomenon to fossil fuel emissions have failed because of deficiencies in the methodology used in the presentation of empirical evidence. Circular reasoning is used in the IPCC carbon budget to relate atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions as a way of dealing with insurmountable measurement problems. No evidence exists to relate changes in atmospheric CO2 or the rate of warming to fossil fuel emissions because correlations presented for these relationships are spurious. The UNFCCC holds annual COP meetings and calls for reductions in fossil fuel emissions to attenuate global warming without evidence that warming is related to emissions.

THE GUARDIAN ON COP27 : "YOU'LL RARELY FIND A CLIMATE DENIER IN EAST AFRICA" RESPONSE: EXCEPT THAT WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HERE IS GLOBAL WARMING NOT "EAST AFRICA WARMING" REGIONAL DATA DO NOT HAVE A GLOBAL INTERPRETATION EXCEPT WHEN YOU ARE DESPERATE

SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ABSTRACT: Although the science of the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 is well established, all efforts to relate this phenomenon to fossil fuel emissions has failed because of deficiencies in the methodology used in the presentation of empirical evidence. Circular reasoning is used in the IPCC carbon budget to relate atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions as a way of dealing with insurmountable measurement problems. No evidence exists to relate changes in atmospheric CO2 or the rate of warming to fossil fuel emissions because correlations presented for these relationships are spurious. The UNFCCC holds annual COP meetings and calls for reductions in fossil fuel emissions to attenuate global warming without evidence that warming is related to emissions. FULL TEXT AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD FROM SSRN.COM: LINK PROVIDED BELOW: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2873672

THE HUMANS MUST SAVE THE PLANET THE HISTORY, ORIGINS, AND THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM (1) Historical roots of planetary environmentalism: The rapid industrial and economic growth in the post-war era progressed mostly without adequate safeguards against environmental degradation. This situation became sensationalized through a series of high profile events that captured public attention. The wanton use of pesticides such as DDT was blamed for killing butterflies and birds (Carson, 1962). The explosive growth in automobile ownership shrouded large cities like Los Angeles and New York in smog (Gardner, 2014) (Haagen-Smit, 1952) (Hanst, 1967). The widespread dumping of industrial waste into lakes and rivers was highlighted by events such as the fire in the Cuyahoga River (Marris, 2011) (Goldberg, 1979). (2) The hippie counter-culture movement of the 1960s rejected many conventional values and in particular, the assumed primacy of technological advancement and industrial growth. It opposed the unrestricted use of pesticides, herbicides, preservatives, food additives, fertilizers, and other synthetic chemicals. It fought against the release of industrial waste into the atmosphere and into waterways, the harvesting of old growth forests for the wood and paper industries, and the inadequacy of public transit that could limit the number of automobiles in big cities and the air pollution they cause (Rome, 2003) (Zelko, 2013). (3): This environmental movement was the driving force behind the formation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the USA which was given the laws, the ways, the means, and the power to act quickly and decisively to clean up the air and water(Ruckelshaus, 1984). In Canada, a Ministry of Environment was created with the same mandate. It has since been renamed as the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. The EPA cleaned up the air and the water in the USA with strictly enforced new laws and procedures that limited the concentration of harmful chemicals in all industrial effluents and also required all new enterprises to obtain the approval of the EPA of their environmental impact before they could proceed. The remarkable success of the EPA made it a model for environmental law and environmental protection in countries around the world (Ruckelshaus, 1984) (Andreen, 2004) (Dolin, 2008). (4) THE EXTENSION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM TO THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE Environmentalism in its conceptual sense is the idea that humans should take care of the environment for their own good such that human life, health, and security are enhanced. This idea is contained in the hippie wisdom that if you shit in bed you will sleep in shit. At some point, the enthusiasm of environmentalism became separated from this fundamental reality and the conceptual underpinnings of environmentalism were arbitrarily extended in a spirit of emotional enthusiasm into what we can call “Tree Hugger” environmentalism” or the “The Bambi Principle” discussed in a related post on this site: LINK: [THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE] in which the concept of environmentalism became corrupted first by separating humans from nature and second with a role for humans as caretakers of nature. It meant that humans must take care not only of their environment but of nature itself such that humans now saw themselves as caretakers of nature. THESE ANOMALIES IN ENVIRONMENTALISM HAVE LED ANALYSTS TO PROPOSE THAT ENVIRONMENTALISM IS THE NEW RELIGION OF THE POST MODERN WORLD: [LINK] (5) A GLOBAL REACH; It was also found that industrial waste in rivers draining into the ocean was having detrimental effects on oceanic biota and chemistry such that fundamental oceanic properties now seemed threatened by human activity. It was thus that the “environment” to be taken care of became extended to include the entire crust of the planet including the land and the ocean and all the creatures big and small that live there. In essence man became nature’s manager and keeper. Environmentalism now meant more than man making sure his environment will sustain him. It meant that man was now in charge of nature. This is the conceptual bridge that when extended to the planetary scale led to the idea of the Anthropocene that gave man a godlike role on the planet earth consistent with his Bibilical Dominion over the Beasts. (6) It was about then, late in the year 1972, that the first picture of the planet was taken from space and flashed on TV screens around the world. The picture was taken by the crew of the Apollo-9 space craft. This image created an overwhelming sense of awe as well as a sense of insecurity to see the finite little thing that we live on that had seemed so infinitely big as viewed from the surface instead of from space. (7) PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM: This image caused a profound change in environmentalism such that our “environment” became redefined as the planet itself. It is thus that the “environment” of environmentalism underwent a grand and dramatic change. In the new planetary context of environmentalism, our environment is the same wherever we are and it is the whole of the planet earth. For example, the environment I live in is not just the rice fields and sugar palms of Phetchaburi, but the whole of the planet earth. Rice Field in rainy season, Phetchaburi Thailand.sugarpalms (8) THE RISE OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM This image from space encouraged environmentalists to look at wider impacts of pollution and they quickly learned that both water pollution carried by rivers to the ocean and air pollution anywhere on earth have a reach much larger than they had imagined. For example ocean pollution in Southeastern USA could be carried by ocean currents thousands of miles away where it could have a detrimental impact. And air pollution in Corsica could affect air quality in Athens; and environmentalist James Lovelock found long lived chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds used in refrigerants and hairspray in the atmosphere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Environmentalism thus became global and soon thereafter, environmental scientists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina of UC Irvine proposed a theory that the long life of CFC discovered by Lovelock implies that these chemicals could eventually end up in the stratosphere where they could act as catalytic agents of ozone destruction. The United Nations entered the scene to take charge of global environmental issues by forming the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and immediately went to work on the global environmental problem of ozone depletion implied by the works of Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina. Environmentalism was now planetary and the UN bureaucracy had automatically extended itself and its budget in its new UNEP role as a Global Environmental Protection Agency that can address global environmental issues. sherwoodRowlandHANSEN1 (9) PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM AND THE ROLE OF HUMANS AS CARETAKERS OF THE PLANET EARTH IN THE ANTHROPOCENE. In his paper “Geology of Mankind”, geologist Paul Crutzen calls on geologists to use the term ‘Anthropocene’ for the current “human-dominated” geological epoch, that sits piggy-back on the Holocene [LINK] . Since then there have been a number of papers, mostly by Will Steffen, on the Anthropocene as seen in the bibliography below. A succinct summary of this concept is provided by Noam Chomsky in the video below. It describes a state of the world in which humans are in control of the planet and are now its keepers and caretakers. The fate of the planet now depends on how well humans take care of it. This is the extent to which global environmentalism has been taken and and the context in which the ozone crisis and the climate crisis of our time should be understood. (10) THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM: Here we argue that the concept of the Anthropocene and of human caused planetary catastrophe by way of things like the industrial economy running on fossil fuels are inconsistent with the relative insignificance of humans on a planetary scale. Consider for example, that even as humans are worried about things like carbon pollution and the population bomb in terms of the planet being overwhelmed by the sheer number of humans on earth, humans, like all life on earth, are carbon life forms created from the carbon that came from the mantle of the planet but a rather insignificant portion of it. In terms of total weight, humans constitute 0.05212% of the total mass of life on earth. Yet we imagine that our numbers are so huge that the planet will be overwhelmed by our population bomb. All the life on earth taken together is 0.000002875065% of the crust of the planet by weight. The crust of the planet we see in the pictures from space and where we live and where we have things like land, ocean, atmosphere, climate, and carbon life forms, is 0.3203% of the planet by weight. The other 99.6797% of the planet, the mantle and core, is a place where we have never been and will never be and on which we have no impact whatsoever. In terms of the much feared element carbon that is said to cause planetary devastation by way of climate change and ocean acidification, a mass balance shows that the crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon with the other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet being in the mantle and core. (11) THE CONCLUSION WE DRAW FROM THIS MASS BALANCE ANALYSIS IS THAT: The crust of the planet where we live is an insignificant portion of the planet. Life on earth is an insignificant portion of the crust of the planet. Humans are an insignificant portion of life on earth. Although it is true that humans must take care of their environment, we propose that the environment should have a more rational definition because the mass balance above does not show that humans are a significant force on a planetary scale or that they are in a position to either save it or to destroy it even with the much feared power of their fossil fueled industrial economy. And that implies that it is not possible that there is such a thing as an Anthropocene in which humans are the dominant geological force of the planet. Like ants and bees, humans are social creatures that live in communities of humans so that when they look around all they see are humans. This is the likely source of our human oriented view of the world. Paul Ehrlich’s overpopulation theory is derived from his first visit to India which he described as “people people people people people!” It is this biased view of the planet that makes it possible for us to extrapolate Calcutta to the planet and come up with the fearful image described by Jeff Gibbs as “Have you every wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet?”

THE LARGE OZONE HOLE OF 2021 IT IS REPORTED THAT THE 2021 OZONE HOLE IS 24 MILLION SQUARE KM AND THAT THIS EXRAORDINARILY LARGE SIZE IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT.LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/16/larger-than-usual-ozone-layer-hole-bigger-than-antarctica CRITICAL COMMENTARY THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION IS THAT OUR CFC EMISSIONS ARE INERT AND THAT THEREFORE THEY ARE LIKELY TO HANG AROUND IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR UP TO A HUNDRED YEARS – LONG ENOUGH FOR THEM TO BE TRANSPORTED BY RANDOM MOLECULAR MOTION TO THE STRATOSPHERE AND THAT ONCE THERE THEY WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL LONG TERM DECLINE IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE THE REASON WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT IT IS THAT THE PREDICTED LOW LEVELS OF GLOBAL STRATOSPHERIC OZONE WILL CAUSE PEOPLE AND ANIMALS THE WORLD OVER TO BE EXPOSED TO HARMFUL ULTRVIOLET RADIATION. THIS IS THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE. HOWEVER, AS SHOWN IN RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/list-of-posts-on-ozone-depletion/ , NO EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE PREDICTED GRADUAL LONG TERM DECLINE IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE. THIS ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE EXPOSES THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC OZONE DEPLETION AS A FALSEHOOD BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO VALIDATE THE THEORY PROPOSED. THAT THERE ARE PERIODIC LOW OZONE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH POLE AT ANNUAL TIME SCALES IS A PHENOMENON THAT IS NEITHER GLOBAL NOR LONG TERM AND THEREFORE THESE EVENTS ARE UNRELATED TO THE THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION BY CFC AND COULD NOT POSSIBLY CAUSE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF LOW OZONE LEVELS GLOBALLY OVER LONG TIME SPANS. WHAT IS CALLED THE OZONE HOLE IS AN INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE OZONE LAYER THAT MAY BE RELATED TO THE KNOWN VARIABILITY OF THE BREWER DOBSON CIRCULATION THAT DISTRIBUTES OZONE FROM THE TROPICS (THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THEY FORM) TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES (WHERE THEY DON’T FORM AND WHERE THEY CAN GET TO ONLY IF THE BREWER DOBSON CIRCULATION TAKES THEM THERE. SHORT TERM AND LOCALIZED CHANGES IN OZONE LEVEL OVER THE SOUTH POLE HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION. THE ONLY DATA THAT WOULD SERVE AS EVIDENCE OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION IS A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE OVER ALL LATITUDES FROM CANADA TO AUSTRALIA. NO SUCH EVIDENCE HAS EVERY BEEN PRESENTED AND WE SHOW IN A RELATED POST THAT NO SUCH EVIDENCE EXISTS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/ THE USE OF THE LOCALIZED LOW OZONE EVENTS AS EVIDENCE OF ROWLAND MOLINA IS EITHER IGNORANCE OR A CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY TO FOOL THE TAXPAYERS HAVING FAILED TO PRESENT EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE HIGH LEVEL OF ACTIVISM AGAINST OZONE DEPLETION. THERE SHOULD BE CRIMINAL CHARGES. RELATED POST ON GLOBAL OZONE DATA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/ November | 2020 | Thongchai Thailand

THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM: Here we argue that the concept of the Anthropocene and of human caused planetary catastrophe by way of things like the industrial economy running on fossil fuels are inconsistent with the relative insignificance of humans on a planetary scale. Consider for example, that even as humans are worried about things like carbon pollution and the population bomb in terms of the planet being overwhelmed by the sheer number of humans on earth, humans, like all life on earth, are carbon life forms created from the carbon that came from the mantle of the planet but a rather insignificant portion of it. In terms of total weight, humans constitute 0.05212% of the total mass of life on earth. Yet we imagine that our numbers are so huge that the planet will be overwhelmed by our population bomb. All the life on earth taken together is 0.000002875065% of the crust of the planet by weight. The crust of the planet we see in the pictures from space and where we live and where we have things like land, ocean, atmosphere, climate, and carbon life forms, is 0.3203% of the planet by weight. The other 99.6797% of the planet, the mantle and core, is a place where we have never been and will never be and on which we have no impact whatsoever. In terms of the much feared element carbon that is said to cause planetary devastation by way of climate change and ocean acidification, a mass balance shows that the crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon with the other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet being in the mantle and core. (11) THE CONCLUSION WE DRAW FROM THIS MASS BALANCE ANALYSIS IS THAT: The crust of the planet where we live is an insignificant portion of the planet. Life on earth is an insignificant portion of the crust of the planet. Humans are an insignificant portion of life on earth. Although it is true that humans must take care of their environment, we propose that the environment should have a more rational definition because the mass balance above does not show that humans are a significant force on a planetary scale or that they are in a position to either save it or to destroy it even with the much feared power of their fossil fueled industrial economy. And that implies that it is not possible that there is such a thing as an Anthropocene in which humans are the dominant geological force of the planet. Like ants and bees, humans are social creatures that live in communities of humans so that when they look around all they see are humans. This is the likely source of our human oriented view of the world. Paul Ehrlich’s overpopulation theory is derived from his first visit to India which he described as “people people people people people!” It is this biased view of the planet that makes it possible for us to extrapolate Calcutta to the planet and come up with the fearful image described by Jeff Gibbs as “Have you every wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet?”

BEFORE THERE WAS CLIMATE INJUSTICE THERE WAS OZONE INJUSTICE Posted by: chaamjamal on: September 26, 2021 In: Uncategorized 1 Comment Call for Climate Justice! - Greenpeace Southeast Asia THE HOLE IN THE SKY https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/ The Power of Inclusive, Intergenerational Climate Activism - EcoWatch LARGE OZONE HOLE OF 2021: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/09/16/the-large-ozone-hole-of-2021/ Marching for climate justice on the streets of Cancun | World Council of Churches OZONE DEPLETION DATA #1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-1/ World's youth take to the streets again to battle climate change OZONE DEPLETION DATA#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-2/ Greta Thunberg & Co. in Berlin – Climate activists take to the streets again – News OZONE DEPLETION DATA#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/01/ozone-depletion-part-3/ Cologne, Germany. 29th Sep, 2019. Activists marching for action on climate change and carrying signs in English and/or German to that respect. Reportedly approximately 20.000 people took part in that demonstration, Credit: SUMMARY OF ALL OZONE DEPLETION POSTS ON THIS SITE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/list-of-posts-on-ozone-depletion/ What did NASA know? and when did they know it? « RealClimate The science checklist applied: CFCs and the destruction of the ozone layer Maurice F. Strong, UNEP's First Executive Director, Celebrates his 85th Birthday Lausanne, Switzerland - 09 August, 2019: Climate activists hold banners reading 'Help yourself act now', Climate justice', 'We are the future' during a Fridays For Future strike for climate protection that is

PART-1: WHAT UN SAYS AT THEIR COP27 CO2 Is on Track to Hit a Record High in 2022 And Shows No Signs of Going Down: 12 November 2022. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change, are on track to rise 1 percent in 2022 to reach an all-time high, scientists said Friday at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt. Emissions from oil, fueled by the continuing rebound in aviation, will likely rise more than 2 percent compared to last year, while emissions from coal will hit a new record. Oil is more driven by the recovery from COVID, and coal and gas are more driven by events in Ukraine. Global CO2 emissions from all sources, including deforestation and land use, will top out at 40.6 billion tons, just below the record level in 2019. Despite the wild cards of pandemic recovery and an energy crisis provoked by war in Ukraine, the uptick in carbon pollution from burning oil, gas and coal is consistent with underlying trends and deeply worrying. Emissions are now 5 percent above what they were when the Paris Agreement was signed" in 2015. The new figures show just how dauntingly hard it will be to slash emissions fast enough to meet the Paris goal of capping global warming at 1.5 C above preindustrial levels. It risks triggering dangerous tipping points in the climate system. PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY #1: What wswe find in this calamitous report is that the horror we are dealing with is 40.6 billion tons of CO2 emissions including all sources even non fossil fuel sources such as deforestation and land use. And yet, the sum total of all these fossil fuel emissions, 40.6 billion tons, is actually less that emissions in 2019. That these data are being interpreted as the end of the world serves as the horror in climate science that they are running out of end of the world stories to tell at COP 27. So maybe it's not the end of the world after all but maybe climate science is running out ofthe end of the climate change horrors they need to sell yet another COP. this COP is numbered #27 and that implies that these scientists and UN bureaucrats have failed to do what they said they could do after 26 COPs that leaves them begging for yet another COP in what is surely an endless COP sequence that serves the needs of the UN bureaucrats. It's high time to shut this game down, to get rid of the UN, and rethink what kind of world body we need and how they will be regulated and controlled by humanity so that they serve humanity and not themselves. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY JAMAL MUNSHI ABSTRACT: The United Nations is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale. 1 1. INTRODUCTION Corruption, fraud, mismanagement, incompetence, the abuse of power, and abuse of funds and resources in various degrees characterize the public sector in general (Munshi, 2000) (Gorodnichenko, 2007) but in the case of the United Nations these concerns are magnified manifold because this public sector is so far removed from the taxpayers that provide its funds that it operates in a an oversight vacuum with no accountability (Wren, 1995) (Cheney, 1995) (Bolton, 1994) (Carlsson, 1995) (Mendez, 1995). The United Nations Convention against Corruption or UNCAC (UNODC, 2004) fights corruption in poor countries by promoting transparency, accountability and oversight. Yet, the UN is itself immune to these anti-corruption measures (Halper, 1996) (Meese, 2007) (Murray, 2002) (Sanjuan, 2005). The UN is not directly accountable to taxpayers. There is no independent oversight or audit of the UN (Halper, 1996). It is generally recognized that conventional public sector corruption is widespread in the United Nations (Dershowitz, 2013) (Rossett, 2006) (The Economist, 2005) (Mail Online, 2014) (Gordon, 2009) (Avni, 2015) (The American Interest, 2016) (Matthews, 2015) (Burnham, 2015) (Ball, 2015) (Zaruk, 2014). Conventional corruption is either a form of bribery in which funds are voluntarily paid to receive better than fair treatment; or a form of extortion in which funds must be paid to receive fair treatment under the threat of worse than fair treatment (Munshi, 2000). However, the greater problem at the UN goes well beyond this narrow definition. It involves a structural weakness that allows it to grow at will by creating new agencies and programs and thereby to amass and abuse ever increasing amounts of taxpayer funds without constraints (Schaefer, 2012). Funding is approved by the UN General Assembly where the vast majority of members are not donor countries. The General Assembly does not represent the taxpayers whose taxes it has the power to spend. Such structural weaknesses in a public sector enterprise are easily exploited (Oates, 1985) (Alper) (Munshi, 2000). In this short note we examine the abuse of taxpayer funding by UN agencies in a case study format (Eisenhardt, 1989) (Longenecker, 1996) (Munshi, 1990). The case study takes a close look at the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) by tracing its history from its humble and noble beginnings to the phenomenal growth in size, wealth, reach, and power of this taxpayer funded public sector bureaucracy. 1 Date: June 2016 Author affiliation: Professor Emeritus, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA, 94928, munshi@sonoma.edu Keywords: corruption, United Nations, UN, UNEP, IPCC, UNFCCC, bureaucracy, accountability, ozone depletion, Montreal Protocol, global warming, AGW, climate change, Kyoto Protocol Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 2 2. THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM (UNEP): A CASE STUDY 2.1 Background Information The United Nations was conceived in 1941 by Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill and after further meetings among the allies in the next four years2 it was formalized with a charter in 1945 at the United Nations Conference on International Organization (UNCIO) into a 51-nation organization in the context of a post-war world polarized both by World War II and by an emerging Cold War tension among the victors of the war just concluded. Initially, the UN consisted of just three components – the General Assembly, the Secretariat, and the Security Council3 . Within a few years the membership grew to 192 members. New agencies and special programs began to form, and independent international bodies were brought into the family of United Nations agencies4 . Also, all UN agencies were given the power to form their own specialized agencies and programs. This organizational structure gave rise to a large and complex hierarchy of UN entities (Fomerand, 2009). The rapid growth in the size, complexity, and reach of the UN was funded by a corresponding growth in the regular budget5 of the growing bureaucracy (Schaefer, 2012). The growth in the UN budget is compared to the growth in the US budget in Figure 1. The graph shows budget amounts in constant 2005 dollars for two-year periods6 from 1946-1947 to 2010-2011 as multiples of the budget in 1946-1947. It is clear to see that growth in the UN budget outstripped growth in the US budget. The UN budget for 2010-2011 was 12.6 times its budget for 1946- 1947 in constant dollars corrected for inflation. The corresponding figure for the US budget is 8.8 times. The UN data were derived by Brett Schaefer from the US Budget (GPO, 2012) (Schaefer, 2012) and the US data are taken from the historical budget record published by the US government (BUDGET.GOV, 2015). All data and computational details used in this paper are available for download from an online data archive (Munshi, 2016). Figure 1: The growth of the inflation adjusted UN and US budgets compared 1946-2010 2 Moscow, Tehran, Washington, Yalta, San Francisco 3 they gained a permanent home in New York by 1951 4 Except for the World Trade Organization which remains independent 5 The regular budget does not include peacekeeping operations and contributions earmarked for special agencies 6 Two-year periods are used to be consistent with UN data from 1974 to 2011. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 3 The number of agencies and programs and their bureaucratic acronyms, mostly along the lines of national governmental structures, began to multiply almost immediately after the conclusion of the UNCIO. They included the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the World Bank (WBG), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (IACHR), the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR), the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG), the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)7 , the World Food Program (WFP), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)8 , the UN Statistical Division (UNSD), the International Comparison Program (ICP)9 , Convention on the Means of Prohibiting and Preventing the Illicit Import, Export and Transfer of Ownership of Cultural Property (by UNESCO), the Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (by UNESCO), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Convention on the Dumping of Wastes at Sea (of the IMO), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), UN World Food Conference (of the FAO), the United Nations Development Program UNDP), International Women's Day (IWD), the International Bill of Human Rights and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNUDHR), United Nations Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), International Covenants on Civil and Political Rights and Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (operated OHCHR), World Heritage Centre (by UNESCO), International Year of the Child (by UNESCO), UN Convention on Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), United Nations Day, International Day of Peace, The UN Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Convention Against Torture (of the OHCHR), the UN Convention on Int’l. Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC), Change for Good operation to help support the Children’s Fund, Rio Earth Summit and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity dedicated to promoting sustainable development, World Day for Water, The Association of Cambodian Local Economic Development Agencies (ACLEDA), Memory of the World Program (by UNESCO), the Hague International War Crimes Tribunal, the Int’l. Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), The Beijing Platform of 1995, UNAIDS, a joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), UN Int’l. Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the United Nations Convention against Corruption or UNCAC, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the Montreal Protocol, UNEP Ozone Secretariat, the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, the Renewable Energy Policy Network (REN21), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Conference of Parties (COP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sustainable development goals (SDG), Agenda 21, United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA), UNEP Climate Action, and a few others. 7 Not to be confused with the UNCHR 8 To limit population growth (Ehrlich, 1971) 9 A subsidiary of the UNSP Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 4 2.2 The Birth of the UNEP Family The rapid industrial and economic growth in the post-war era progressed mostly without adequate safeguards against environmental degradation. This situation became sensationalized through a series of high profile events that captured public attention. The wanton use of pesticides such as DDT was blamed for killing butterflies and birds (Carson, 1962). The explosive growth in automobile ownership shrouded large cities like Los Angeles and New York in smog (Gardner, 2014) (Haagen-Smit, 1952) (Hanst, 1967). The widespread dumping of industrial waste into lakes and rivers was highlighted by events such as the fire in the Cuyahoga River (Marris, 2011) (Goldberg, 1979). The hippie counter-culture movement of the 1960s rejected many conventional values and in particular, the assumed primacy of technological advancement and industrial growth. It opposed the unrestricted use of pesticides, herbicides, preservatives, food additives, fertilizers, and other synthetic chemicals. It fought against the release of industrial waste into the atmosphere and into waterways, the harvesting of old growth forests for the wood and paper industries, and the inadequacy of public transit that could limit the number of automobiles in big cities and the air pollution they cause (Rome, 2003) (Zelko, 2013). This environmental movement led to the formation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the USA which was given the laws, the ways, the means, and the power to act quickly and decisively to clean up the air and water (Ruckelshaus, 1984). In Canada, a Ministry of Environment was created with the same mandate. It has since been renamed as the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. The EPA cleaned up the air and the water in the USA with strictly enforced new laws and procedures that limited the concentration of harmful chemicals in all industrial effluents and also required all new enterprises to obtain the approval of the EPA of their environmental impact before they could proceed. The remarkable success of the EPA made it a model for environmental law and environmental protection in counties around the world (Ruckelshaus, 1984) (Andreen, 2004) (Dolin, 2008). It was in this context that renowned Canadian environmentalist and visionary Maurice Strong saw the need for a global version of the EPA that could work at a planetary level with a global reach unhindered by national boundaries (Ward, 1972). He convened the UN meeting on the environment in Stockholm in 1972. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) was conceived in Stockholm and soon thereafter approved by the UN General Assembly with Maurice Strong as its first Executive Director (Bodansky, 2001) (Ball, 2015). The UNEP quickly became the nucleus of a large and growing cluster of United Nations agencies, secretariats, programs, frameworks, conventions, protocols, and conferences. As of this writing they include the Montreal Protocol, the Ozone Secretariat, the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), Agenda 21, United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA), UNEP Climate Action, and long sequence of Conference of Parties (COP) annual meetings starting with COP1 in 1995 to COP21 in 2015. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 5 2.3 Planetary Environmentalism: Ozone Depletion For the UNEP to achieve its ambition of being the EPA for the world it needed a global catastrophic pollution problem which it could tackle and clean up just as the EPA had cleaned up the air and water in the USA. A series of events that began in the 1970s and culminated in 1985 provided them with just such an opportunity. In the 1970s, environmentalist James Lovelock, the man who had invented the idea of environmentalism on a planetary scale in terms of the Gaia hypothesis (Lovelock, 1972) was concerned about the atmospheric release of halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) that were used as refrigerants, as propellants for household liquids such as hairspray, and as fumigants in agriculture10. His concern was that these man-made chemicals did not otherwise occur in nature and that they were chemically inert. The latter property implied that their release into the atmosphere, even at modest rates, could cause dangerous accumulation. This idea was empirically verified when Lovelock found these chemicals in air samples taken in the middle of the North Atlantic (Lovelock, 1977). Nobel Laureates Frank Rowland and Mario Molina working at the University of California at Irvine were intrigued by Lovelock’s findings and described a mechanism in which the long life in the atmosphere of chemically inert HHC could transport them by way of atmospheric circulations to the stratosphere where the spectrum of solar irradiance can cause them to become catalytic agents11 of ozone destruction for up to 150 years after their release into the atmosphere (Molina, 1974). The catalytic mechanism involves an intermediate step in which chlorine released from HHC causes ozone to dissociate (Stolarski, 1974). Stratospheric ozone is formed and destroyed by solar irradiance above the tropics12 in what is known as the Chapman Cycle (Chapman, 1930) (Fisk, 1934) (Dütsch, 1979). High energy UVC13 radiation causes oxygen to dissociate into charged free radicals and their chance collision with oxygen forms ozone. Their chance collision with ozone causes ozone destruction; but the much higher probability of collisions with oxygen creates an equilibrium inventory of ozone in the stratosphere. The equilibrium inventory is lowered somewhat by UVB14 radiation which destroys ozone. In that process UVB becomes completely absorbed in the stratosphere thereby saving life on the surface of the earth from the harmful effects of UVB radiation (Beder, 1993) (Caldwell, 1986) (DeGruijl, 1999) (Armstrong, 2001) (Cullen, 1994) (Allen, 1998) (Tevini, 1989). It is in this context that we can understand the fear of ozone depletion by anthropogenic air pollution as described by Rowland and Molina in terms of the Lovelock data. If HHC emissions cause ozone depletion in the stratospheric ozone layer, the equilibrium inventory of ozone will decline and compromise the ability of the ozone layer to protect us from UVB radiation. 10 Methyl bromide was a widely used agricultural fumigant 11 Catalytic agents are not consumed in the chemical reactions in which they participate 12 And only above the tropics 13 100-280 nm 14 280-315 nm Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 6 HHC emissions can thus be seen as a kind of air pollution on a planetary scale. This kind of planetary air pollution together with its adverse effects on the biosphere on a global scale was just the kind of thing that the UNEP needed not only to justify its existence but to grow in size, importance, and funding. In 1977 the UNEP initiated a new program called the World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer. However, they would have to wait for empirical evidence that stratospheric ozone was indeed being depleted before they could get funded for carrying out such a plan. They did not have to wait long. In 1985, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) published a landmark paper that showed that total column ozone15 (TCO) measured near the South Pole during the southern spring months of October and November were dramatically lower in the period 1980-1984 than they were in the period 1957-1973 (Farman, 1985). The difference was ascribed to the Rowland-Molina mechanism of ozone depletion and thereby to global emissions of HHC. The UNEP seized this opportunity to assume the role of the environmental protection agency for the planet that could save the world from ozone depletion, dangerous UVB radiation, and skin cancer epidemics (Beder, 1993) (Litfin, 1994). The UNEP responded to the Farman paper almost immediately by convening the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985 which established the idea of an international cooperative effort against ozone destruction by anthropogenic air pollution. As expected, the Vienna Convention appointed the UNEP as the United Nations agency in charge of the program. The Montreal Protocol of 1987, the Helsinki Declaration of 1989, and the London Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol of 1990 followed in the heels of the Vienna meeting to coordinate and fund a UNEP program to ban the production, sale, and atmospheric release of man-made chemicals identified by the UNEP as ozone depleting substances (ODS) (Rowlands, 1993) (Morrisette, 1989). In 1991 a Multilateral Fund was set up for this effort and an Ozone Secretariat was established to carry out the plan. The fund greatly enhanced UNEP’s financial and political power and the size of its bureaucracy. The funding pattern is depicted graphically in Figure 2 with the amounts inflation adjusted and converted to constant 2005 dollars. In addition to the direct funding of more than $5 billion in constant 2005 dollars given to the UNEP to save the ozone layer from ODS, society bore many billions more in the socio-economic cost of the ban. The rush to action, justified by the UNEP using the precautionary action principle16, came at the expense of scientific rigor. The flaws in the conclusions drawn from the BAS data (Farman, 1985) were presented in prior works on the subject of ozone depletion (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016) (Munshi, Mean Global Total Ozone from Ground Station Data, 2016). The entirety of the Chapman ozone chemistry including the proposed Rowland-Molina theory of ozone destruction by chlorine takes place above the tropics and not at the greater latitudes. For evidence of changes in the kinetics and equilibria in these reactions one should look at the tropics or at global means and not rely exclusively on data from the South Pole (Munshi, An Empirical Test of the Chemical Theory of Ozone Depletion, 2016). 15 TCO is about 90% stratospheric ozone and 10% tropospheric ozone and trends in TCO may be interpreted in terms of trends in stratospheric ozone (Ziemke, 1998) 16The precautionary principle is exlained by William Colglazier in a climate change context (Colglazier, 1991) Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 7 Figure 2: UNEP's ozone funding 1991-2015 in constant 2005 dollars Yet, the ozone depletion crisis was sold purely on the basis of the size of the ozone hole above the South Pole possibly because the data for the tropical region do not show any evidence of ozone depletion (Munshi, An Empirical Test of the Chemical Theory of Ozone Depletion, 2016). The ozone hole is a region above Antarctica where TCO is less than 200 DU17 . It should be mentioned that the ozone hole is not a “hole” but a region where ozone levels are considered to be low based on an arbitrary criterion18 . The size of the ozone hole contains both a seasonal cycle and apparent decadal or multi-decadal cycles without a clear long term trend that can be interpreted either in terms of ozone depletion or in terms of the success of the Montreal Protocol in arresting ozone depletion. Yet the UNEP along with NASA and the NOAA have used these data to declare that the Montreal Protocol was successful in solving the ozone depletion crisis many decades ahead of the time frame needed for such a success in terms of the “long life” of HHC that serves as the foundational concept in the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion (Parry, 2011) (UNEP, 2007) (NOAA, 2010). Ozone is formed only above the tropics where solar irradiance is direct. The reason that we find ozone at mid and polar latitudes is that it is taken there from the tropic by atmospheric circulations such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (Brewer, 1949). Seasonal and inter-annual changes in these circulation patterns are well known and well documented (Rabbe, 1992) (Kozubek, 2012) (Tegtmeier, 2008). Under these conditions it is not possible to interpret changes in TCO in Antarctica in terms of only the RowlandMolina mechanism of ozone depletion. Changes in TCO due to the changes in the efficiency and extent of distribution of ozone from the tropics to these latitudes must also be considered particularly so in the polar latitudes. The evidence shows that the distributional efficiency of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation declines beyond the 60th parallel particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This meridional pattern is depicted graphically in Figure 3. The three panels in Figure 3 show the seasonal maximum and minimum values, the seasonal range, and the deseasonalized means across latitudes from 90o S to 70oN. 17 Dobson Units 18 The threshold of 200 DU is only 50 DU less than the average TCO of 250 above the tropics Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 8 Figure 3: Meridional patterns in TCO (Munshi, An Empirical Test of the Chemical Theory of Ozone Depletion, 2016) In view of the dynamic nature of the global distribution of TCO and the spherical shape19 of the planet the appropriate metric for an empirical test of the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion is the latitudinally weighted mean global ozone because it can serve as a measure of the total TCO inventory of the world (Gleisner, 2011). The Rowland-Molina theory implies a declining trend in this measure. In prior studies two attempts were made to detect this declining trend – one with satellite data and one with ground station data for TCO. No evidence of ozone depletion was found in either study (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016) (Munshi, Mean Global Total Ozone from Ground Station Data, 2016). In view of these findings, a possible explanation of the apparent early success of the Montreal Protocol is that it is a solution to a non-existent problem. In view of the data presented here and in the prior studies we would like to think that the theory of ozone depletion by HHC and the ban on HHC to save the ozone layer are derived from bad science by good people who felt that they had to act quickly in accordance with the precautionary principle. However, because of the enormous gains made by the UNEP in implementing a program to solve a nonexistent problem and in view of a history of corrupt practices at the UN (Zaruk, 2014) (Ball, 2015) (Lynch, 2006) (Schaefer, 2012) (Dewar, 1995) (Rossett, 2006) (Rossett, 2008), intentional fraud and corruption for financial and bureaucratic gains by the United Nations cannot be ruled out. 19 It is acknowledged that the earth is not a perfect sphere Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 9 2.4 Planetary Environmentalism: Climate Change Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons taken from deep under the ground where they had been sequestered from the surface-atmosphere carbon cycle for millions of years. Their combustion introduces new extraneous carbon into the delicately balanced surface-atmosphere carbon cycle and climate system. A perturbation of the surface-atmosphere system that can be ascribed to fossil fuel emissions is therefore an anthropogenic effect on climate that is unnatural, unprecedented, and possibly catastrophic. This observation has concerned scientists ever since the Industrial Revolution started a steep and exponential increase20 in fossil fuel emissions (Callendar, 1938) (Revelle, 1956) (NAS, 1977) (Hansen, 1981) (Hansen, 1988) (IPCC, 2007) (IPCC, 2014) (Hansen, 2016). The proposed mechanism of this perturbation is that fossil fuel emissions increase the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere and that the change in atmospheric composition increases its greenhouse effect. This mechanism implies that fossil fuel emissions should cause global warming (Lacis, 2010). However, faced with a 30-year cooling trend in the 1940s to the 1970s, NASA scientists Rasool and Schneider suggested that the aerosol effect of fossil fuel combustion overcomes the greenhouse effect and predicted global cooling instead of global warming (Rasool, 1971). The warming mechanism gained the upper hand and emerged as the climate science orthodoxy when the 30-year cooling trend ended and a warming trend began in 1976 (NAS, 1977) (Hansen, 1981). It became sensationalized in terms of melting polar ice caps, rising seas, extreme weather, social unrest, and mass extinctions in a New York Times article after the 1988 Congressional Testimony of James Hansen (Shabecoff, 1988) (Hansen, 1988). This event in 1988 marks the beginning of the modern era of the climate change narrative with the warming orthodoxy having survived the so called hiatus period since 1998 (Karl, 2015) (Nieves, 2015). Figure 4: The cooling, warming, and hiatus multi-decadal temperature trends (HADCRUT, 2016) 20 Fossil fuels were used for heating prior to the Industrial Revolution in relatively insignificant amounts. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 10 For the UNEP the frightening new global warming and climate change narrative served as yet another planetary air pollution crisis in which it could seize global leadership and grow in terms of size, funding, and power at the expense of taxpayers in donor countries. In this case, the global “air pollutant” was identified as the unnatural and extraneous new carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels. The UNEP responded to the events of 1988 almost immediately. It saw its opportunity and seized it having tasted great success in this kind of situation in the case of HHC pollution and ozone depletion. In that case it had set up the Montreal Protocol to ban the production, sale, and atmospheric release of HHC at great cost to taxpayers and to society at large and was given credit or having solved a problem that they had invented (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016). Emboldened by that success it would now attempt to apply the same strategy to ban fossil fuel emissions (VanDyke, 2010). The essential formula is that taxpayers can be scared into funding new programs. The Montreal Protocol serves as a business model for the fear mongering business in which it is necessary only to convince taxpayers that (1) the planet needs to be saved from an imminent crisis and (2) the UNEP can do that job given sufficient funding, bureaucratic growth, and bureaucratic power. The credibility of this business model is underwritten by the success of the Montreal Protocol (VanDyke, 2010). The UNEP began by creating a new United Nations agency to be called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was formed and approved by the General Assembly in 1988, the same year that the Hansen testimony and the New York Times story had raised public awareness and fear of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and climate change (CAGW). The UNEP cooperated with the WMO in this venture since climate was an important part of this global air pollution crisis. The IPCC was established with an initial cash outlay of 74.6 million CHF21 for the period 1988-2004 with additional annual funds of five to eight million CHF thereafter in nominal terms (IPCC, 2016). Millions more were made available as “in kind” contributions mostly in the form of facilities and personnel. Of note is the “in-kind” contribution of the WMO in providing office space to the IPCC at their headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland22 Figure 5: CHF per USD 1988-2016 in nominal terms (Trading Econnomics, 2016) 21 About $55 million USD in nominal terms in 1988 22 The UNFCCC secretariat was later moved to Bonn, Germany Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 11 The purpose of the IPCC is to provide a functional link between climate scientists and governments so that government policy around the world to tackle climate change will be coherent, cooperative, and consistent with the current state of climate science (IPCC, 2016). The IPCC carries out this function in two highly visible ways. First, they are required to publish a report every five or seven years to “synthesize” the current state of climate science into an “assessment report” (AR). About four thousand people (experts, contributing authors, and lead authors) are involved in writing these reports. They are divided into three parts prepared by three different groups of authors known as Working Groups (WG). WG1 synthesizes the current state of climate science from hundreds of peer reviewed publications. WG2 develops scenarios and long term forecasts in terms of the possible consequences of climate change that are consistent with the synthesis by WG1. Lastly, WG3 develops the policy implications of the impact assessments by WG2 in terms of both mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2016). This information chain connects climate science to policy making at all levels of government around the world. The chain may be described as climate science –> WG1 –> WG2 –> WG3 –> governments. As of this writing five voluminous reports have been published by the IPCC. They are AR1 in 1990, AR2 in 1996, AR3 in 2001, AR4 in 2007, and AR5 2014 (IPCC, 2016). Each of these releases has been given a great deal of media coverage but the system has mostly failed to change the course of government policy (Manne, 2013) (The Scientific Alliance, 2010) (Jamieson, 2014) (Climate Science Policy, 2014). The second major visible activity of the IPCC has been a series of high profile annual meetings with intense media coverage. These meetings are called Conference of Parties (COP). They are held at different venues around world to enforce the WG3 policy recommendations upon national governments in the form of an international treaty as a way of replicating their success in the Montreal Protocol meetings (VanDyke, 2010). About 30,000 to 40,000 delegates from more than 190 countries attend these week-long meetings at taxpayer expense. Most of the delegates are from countries that are irrelevant in terms of mitigation (McSweeny, 2015). The intensity of media coverage of these meetings is depicted graphically in Figure 6 which shows the number of climate change stories in newspapers worldwide before, during, and after COP15. Figure 6: Media coverage of IPCC COP15 in Copenhagen, 2009 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 12 The first such meeting was held in Geneva in 1990 immediately after the release of AR1 (UNFCCC, 1993). The meeting concluded that fossil fuel emissions are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and called for worldwide restrictions on such emissions along the lines of the ban on ozone depleting substances in the Montreal Protocol. However, no mechanism existed for the IPCC to make such a demand. The primary outcome of this meeting was therefore the need for a United Nations “Framework Convention on Climate Change” (UNFCCC) to serve as a basis for a global treaty to reduce fossil fuel emissions. This framework convention was formulated by a committee of delegates from 150 nations immediately following the 1993 meeting. The emission reduction formula contained in the UNFCCC recognizes "common but differentiated" responsibilities of developed and developing countries. Two years later in 1992 the “Rio Earth Summit” was held in the seaside resort city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil where delegates from all UN member nations convened to sign the UNFCCC into force. Two additional “framework conventions were tagged on to the UNFCCC and these too came into force at the Rio Earth Summit23 . The UNFCCC entered into force along the lines of an international treaty in 1994. The 196 United Nations member countries that signed the treaty, known as Parties24 agreed to meet annually at “Conferences of the Parties” or COP to implement a coordinated plan for cutting fossil fuel emissions. The stage now appeared to be set for an attack on fossil fuel emissions along the lines of the success of the Montreal Protocol in banning ozone depleting substances (VanDyke, 2010). This was probably the most optimistic and self-serving moment for the UNEP and the IPCC. The third of the COP meetings (COP3) under the framework of the UNFCCC was held at Kyoto, Japan in 1997. It appeared to be a major breakthrough for the UNEP’s attempt to duplicate their apparent ozone success in the new arena of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol signed by 192 countries harkened back to the Montreal Protocol signed ten years earlier. Like the Montreal Protocol, the Kyoto Protocol was a treaty that enforced concrete obligations on signatories. In the case of the Montreal Protocol the obligation involved phased elimination of the production, sale, and atmospheric release of chemicals identified as ozone depleting substances by all Parties25 . In the case of the Kyoto Protocol the obligation was a phased reduction in fossil fuel emissions but it did not apply equally to all Parties. In accordance with the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle of the UNFCCC, the Parties26 were segregated into three groups defined as Annex 1 (developed and industrialized countries including the transition economics of the former Soviet Union), Annex 2 (Annex 1 minus the transition economies), and Non-Annex-1 (developing countries) (UNFCCC, 2014). The Annex 1 and Annex 2 Parties committed to defined emissions reduction by 2012 as a percent of emissions in 1990. The Annex 2 Parties further committed to providing undefined financial and technological assistance to the NonAnnex-1 Parties to pursue undefined activities having to do with mitigation and adaptation. 23 the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD) and the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 24 A party to the UNFCCC agreement 25 signatories 26 countries Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 13 To complicate matters further, the Non-Annex-1 Parties were further divided into three sub-groups. They are (1) Non-Annex-1 but not vulnerable to the effects of climate change, (2) Non-Annex-1 and vulnerable, and (3) Least Developed Countries (LDC). The three sub-groups differed with respect to obligations towards the global effort to tackle climate change and with respect to claims for financial and technological assistance from the Annex-2 Parties (UNFCCC, 2014). Yet another classification exists for Small Island Developing States or SIDS (UNEP, 2004) which was created as a special program of the UNEP to address issues specific to SIDS (Zaruk, 2014). The complexity of the classification of Parties and their role in the Kyoto Protocol is a hindrance to reaching meaningful agreements that can be implemented but it may serve other needs of a bureaucracy with little accountability or oversight (Zaruk, 2010) The Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol are superficially similar and the intent of the UNEP was that the Kyoto Protocol would duplicate the much heralded27 success story of the Montreal Protocol and apply it to the job of tackling climate change in terms of both mitigation and adaptation. However, this expectation is unrealistic because of a fundamental difference between the two Protocols. While the Montreal Protocol imposed well defined and phased compliance targets by all Parties, the Kyoto Protocol does not. The complex and ill-defined segregation of parties and their obligations has turned into a giant bewildering bureaucratic puzzle. The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty that cannot be implemented because of complexities put into it by incompetent bureaucrats. The complexity worsened when rapid economic growth in certain Non-Annex-1 Parties particularly China, India, and Indonesia, made them together the largest single source of fossil fuel emissions in the world (EPA, 2016). Since then 18 annual UNFCCC COP meetings have been held28 in Buenos Aires, Bonn, The Hague, Marrakesh, New Delhi, Milan, Montreal, Bali, Poznan, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha, Warsaw, Lima, and Paris at a huge cost to taxpayers particularly in the donor countries – but they failed to solve the bureaucratic Gordian Knot that they had themselves created. The very costly effort by the UNEP/UNFCCC/IPCC bureaucracy to address the climate change crisis attributed to fossil fuel emissions has failed (Manne, 2013) (The Scientific Alliance, 2010) (Jamieson, 2014) (Climate Science Policy, 2014). The failure implies that climate change is not an issue that can be addressed by United Nations agencies such as the UNEP and the IPCC. These agencies can safely be disbanded without any harm to the environment or to society at large (Zaruk, 2014) (Zaruk, 2010). The primary task of dealing with climate issues should reside with national governments. All national governments possess appropriate mechanisms to assist policymakers with the implications of climate science. International issues in climate change may be brought to the United Nations General Assembly or to existing and wellfunctioning international organizations such as the G7, G20, OECD, and the EU. Technical issues may be addressed at regional and global scientific conferences. Bilateral and multilateral agreements and treaties may be used to address specific issues (Baxter, 1965) (Zawahri, 2011) (Pauwelyn, 2003). That a UN agency can act as an international policeman to mitigate climate change has been tried. It failed. 27 But false 28 As of this writing Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 14 2.5 A Critical Evaluation of the IPCC Assessment Reports Although the IPCC was set up as an independent and neutral scientific body to objectively synthesize the current state of climate science purely on its merits and to translate that information into possible impacts and their policy implications, no UN oversight mechanism existed to ensure its objectivity or to audit the scientific credibility of its work. Possibly due to outside influences, the organization quickly turned into an advocacy group for CAGW with their AR documents closely following the Hansen narrative describing the catastrophic consequences of fossil fuel emissions (Hansen, 1988) (Hansen, 2016) (IPCC, 2007) (IPCC, 2014). There is no mention of opposing views or of alternative interpretations of the data in these documents. Large uncertainties in natural flows and in the various estimates of the so called “climate sensitivity29” parameter were downplayed. The range of values of uncertain variables are reported as 90% Confidence Intervals (CI) even after the National Academy of Sciences published “Revised standards for statistical evidence” that implied that the appropriate CI should be greater than 99% (Johnson, 2013). Errors in past forecasts were ignored and successive AR reports continued to increase the extent of climate catastrophe in their forecasts. The IPCC AR reports are biased. They are primarily concerned with selling the idea of climate change calamity and its mitigation by emission reduction. Their use of science is limited to its utility in supporting that primary purpose. The bias in IPCC AR documents is documented in a 2010 commentary by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency which took it upon itself to audit the IPCC AR4 WG2 forecasts and concluded that “The IPCC systematically favors adverse outcomes in a way that goes beyond serving the needs of policymakers.” (PBL, 2010). Some points from the PBL audit are summarized below. 1. Exaggeration: The area in the Netherlands that the IPCC said was at risk of flooding by the sea was exaggerated. 2. A systemic tendency by the IPCC to stress negative effects of climate change and to ignore positive effects to the point of a built in misleading bias in the IPCC reports. 3. A systemic tendency to make generalized statements that actually refer to localized data: Example 1. The statement that “by 2020 in some countries yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced to 50%” was based on a paper that was specific to Morocco. Also the paper said that the 50% reduction in yields would occur only in drought years and not in other years. This information was left out of the IPCC report and the yield reduction was generalized to all years. 4. A systemic tendency to make generalized statements that actually refer to localized data: Example 2. A statement in a source document about lower yields of millet, groundnuts, and cowpeas in Niger was generalized by the IPCC to the entire Sahel region and to all crops. 5. A systemic tendency to make generalized statements that actually refer to localized data: Example 3. A statement in the source document specific to cattle in Argentina was generalized by the IPCC to all livestock in all of South America. 29 The relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and surface temperature Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 15 6. Statements are made without any supporting data or references: Example 1. The claim by the IPCC that fresh water availability in southern and eastern Asia will decline is not supported by data or by a citation. 7. Statements are made without any supporting data or references: Example 2. The claim by the IPCC that in balance the net health effect of global warming in Europe will be negative is not supported by data or by a citation. 8. Bad news bias: Where an alarmist statement is supported by a citation, the IPCC interpretation is more alarmist than the text in the citation. 9. Bad news bias: The IPCC report tends to be unremittingly about the harmful impacts of climate change. There is a complete absence of beneficial impacts. 10. Vulnerability bias: Countries classified by the IPCC as vulnerable are asked to make a selfassessment of their vulnerability. These self-assessments are included in the AR without modification. It is known that vulnerability is directly proportional to adaptation funding from Annex-2 countries. The opportunity and motivation for bias in these self-assessments are ignored by the IPCC. 11. The alarming and negative impression of IPCC reports on their readers would not exist if the IPCC presented the source material without bias and with a more narrow and objective interpretation without injecting the authors’ judgment. 12. Statistical fraud: A rise in heat related deaths in Australia is presented by the IPCC as due to rising temperatures. This rise disappears if we look at heat related deaths as a percent of population. This means that the IPCC misrepresented a population effect as a global warming effect. However, it must be said that it has not been determined whether this error is the product of fraud or of incompetence. Yet another independent audit of the IPCC AR4 was carried out in 2011 by the Inter Academy Council (IAC), an international scientific body. The IAC audit found as follows (IAC, 2011). 1. The IPCC does not address genuine controversies. 2. Probabilities of events are reported without sufficient evidence and without providing a basis for how the probability was evaluated. 3. IPCC communication and selection procedures emphasize secrecy and not transparency, 4. A sufficiently wide range of scientific viewpoints is not considered and due consideration is not given to properly documented alternative views. Not mentioned in either of these audits are the following deficiencies in the IPCC AR5 WG1 (and all previous WG1 assessments)30 . 30 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2220942 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 16 1. In the IPCC AR5 carbon budget, uncertainties in carbon flows are stated but they not taken into account in the carbon budget accounting. The actual uncertainties are likely much larger than the ones stated by the IPCC and perhaps even unquantifiable because measurement of these flows and of changes in the mass of the biota are limited and their generalization just a guess. Even so, we find that when the uncertainties stated by the IPCC are inserted into the carbon budget accounting, it is not possible to detect the effect of fossil fuel emissions. In other words, we don’t know natural flows well enough to determine the role of fossil fuel emissions in the carbon budget (Munshi, Uncertain Flow Accounting and the IPCC Carbon Budget, 2015). 2. Since the Industrial Revolution the use of fossil fuels accelerated and fossil fuel emissions began to increase exponentially rising from less than 10 megatons per year in 1800 to more than 10 gigatons per year in 2015 (EPA, 2016). Over the same period, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen from 280 ppm to 400 ppm also at an accelerated rate (NASA-GISS, 2016). Because of the positive second derivative that these two curves have in common, they do indeed show a positive correlation between fossil fuel emissions and changes in atmospheric CO2. This relationship is taken by the IPCC as evidence that increases in atmospheric CO2 since the Industrial Revolution can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions. Such attribution can be spurious in the case of field data but the attribution argument can be made stronger if detrended fluctuation analysis shows a correlation net of the common and perhaps coincidental rising trend but it must be discarded if detrended analysis does not show a statistically significant correlation (Prodobnik, 2008). In this case, detrended correlation analysis shows no correlation at all. We conclude from that finding that there is no empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that changes in atmospheric CO2 since the Industrial Revolution can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions (Munshi, Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Anthropogenic Emissions, 2015). The same procedure also shows the absence of empirical evidence for the attribution of ocean acidification to fossil fuel emissions (Munshi, Fossil Fuel Emissions and Ocean Acidification, 2015). 3. A second line of argument for the attribution of changes in atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions is that the attribution is consistent with observed changes in 14C and 13C carbon isotope proportions in atmospheric CO2. These arguments are not convincing and the data presented do not constitute empirical evidence that changes in atmospheric CO2 can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions (Munshi, Changes in the 13C/12C Ratio of Atmospheric CO2, 2016) (Munshi, Dilution of Atmospheric Radiocarbon CO2 by Fossil Fuel Emissions, 2016). 4. “Climate Sensitivity” is an important topic in the WG1 section of the IPCC AR. It is a logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and surface temperature. Specifically it refers to the change in surface temperature in degrees Celsius for each doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. The IPCC uses their estimate of climate sensitivity to make temperature trend predictions. All such predictions since AR1 in 1990 have been wrong possibly because the uncertainty in climate sensitivity is too large for it to be a useful forecasting tool (Roe, 2007) (Roe, 2011) (Hallegatte, 2009). Yet, if what we want to derive from all of this is a WG3 target for Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 17 emission reduction, climate sensitivity is irrelevant until it can be shown that changes in atmospheric CO2 can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions (Munshi, Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Anthropogenic Emissions, 2015). 5. In fact, WG1 does provide a direct causal link between fossil fuel emissions and surface temperature in terms of a very high correlation between cumulative emissions and cumulative warming (Matthews H. , 2009) (Solomon, 2009) (Zickfeld, 2009) (IPCC, 2014). However, no conclusions can be drawn from such a correlation because correlations between cumulative values are spurious. The spuriousness of correlations between cumulative values can be demonstrated with a simple Monte Carlo procedure that shows that cumulative values of random numbers tend to be correlated (Munshi, The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values, 2016). If fossil fuel emissions cause warming then a correlation must exist at the time scale at which this causation acts. The time scale for this causation is estimated to be one decade (Ricke, 2014). Although this decadal correlation exists in CMIP5 no such correlation can be found in the data (Munshi, Decadal Fossil Fuel Emissions and Decadal Warming, 2015). 3. CONCLUSIONS It is well known that public sector bureaucracies without adequate constraint, oversight, audit, and accountability can devolve into self-serving organisms (Rose-Ackerman, 2008) (Gorodnichenko, 2007) (Romzek, 1987). The United Nations and its many agencies and programs are ultimately funded by taxpayers but they are too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. But who will discipline the UN? Agency theory ensures that no single country will venture to absorb the cost of disciplining the UN while gaining only pro-rata benefits (Jensen, 1976) (Eisenhardt, 1989). United Nations agencies and programs like the UNEP, IPCC, UNCFCCC, the Montreal Protocol, the Kyoto Protocol and their related frameworks, conventions and other bureaucratic artifacts are therefore allowed to operate under insufficient constraint, transparency, oversight, or discipline. Under these conditions they can morph into bureaucratic organisms that operate for their own needs and no longer serve the public interest (Bolton, 1994) (Halper, 1996) (Zaruk, 2014) (Zaruk, 2010). A case study of the UNEP and its related agencies, programs, framework conventions, and protocols exposes structural weaknesses that allowed the bureaucracy to extract rents and grow by selling environmental fear and assigning themselves the high office of saving the planet. This sequence was played out in two different episodes. In the first episode a fear of ozone depletion was sold and after successfully implementing a worldwide ban on alleged ozone depleting substances, the UN declared victory even though no evidence exists of long term trends in latitudinally averaged global mean total column ozone (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016) (Munshi, Mean Global Total Ozone from Ground Station Data, 2016). The absence of trends indicates that the problem that was solved never existed in the first place. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794991 THE UNITED NATIONS: AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY, JAMAL MUNSHI, 2016 18 In the second episode, they sold fear of catastrophic global warming and climate change allegedly caused by fossil fuel emissions but failed to duplicate their success in the first episode because of methodological flaws (IAC, 2011) (PBL, 2010) (McIntyre, 2007) (Zaruk, 2010) (Munshi, The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values, 2016) (Laframboise, 2011) (Morano, 2013) (Ball, 2015) and also because their own bureaucratic incompetence created an emissions reduction plan that was too complicated to implement. The complication ensures an endless series of annual meetings of thousands of delegates at exotic locations with the only concrete achievement of each meeting being that of setting the date and place for the next meeting. These episodes serve as evidence that unconstrained and undisciplined public sector bureaucracies do not serve the interest of the public. We conclude that such UN bureaucracies can safely be dismantled without any harm to the public interest.