THE FAILURE OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM EXPLAINED BY THE ACVIVISTS Will disruptive action help save the planet? Is there any point throwing soup at a Van Gogh painting and mashed potato at a Monet? "Just Stop Oil" protesters glued themselves to the wall of the National Gallery in London and threw tomato soup at Vincent Van Gogh’s Sunflowers on 14 October 2022. No: Nothing’s worked. More diplomatically put: nothing has yet worked at anything like the pace required. Is it any wonder that desperation is growing? The closest anything came to working was the Extinction Rebellion on April 2019. The radical flank of the environmental movement punched a hole through complacency and denial and raised climate consciousness permanently. But it didn’t succeed in its ultimate aim of provoking climate action from the UK government. Governments the world over are simply not taking the findings of climate science seriously. In parallel, the same governments resist the blunt and terrible truth that the world can no longer stay below the 1.5C “safe” heating limit. This year’s United Nations climate summit, starting in a week in Egypt, is extremely unlikely to admit this failure. Yet deep down, everyone who pays any attention to the climate debate knows that the climate movement has failed.  Wouldn’t it be refreshing if academics, environmental and business leaders, committed politicians, and climate activists were to admit that nothing yet has really worked? I believe the public is waiting for those brave enough to speak these truths and to invite a broad and popular response. But it won’t happen quickly enough if the public continues not to be trusted with the full reality of our situation. This is the tragedy of the moment. Because it is frustrating the full emergence of so much energy and endeavour that will, in my view, become a new moderate flank – one that is all about you: all about where you work or the communities where you live, acting collectively in the day to day to turn around the legacy of failure outlined above. By way of example: lawyers can express their professional agency by choosing what clients and what business they take. The same goes for insurers who can disclose what they know about the rising threat we face. For academics and teachers, it’s about transforming what your teaching and research is about. And for those with access to land, it’s about building resilience and inviting the community at large, including those who you may not agree with politically, to join in. It’s about fully facing and sharing the reality of the situation and acting on it. This is the opposite of a recipe for doomism. In lieu of anything even remotely resembling adequate plans from our “leaders”, we need to embody an exit strategy from fossil fuels or else we’ll be ejected into the fossil record. So it’s clear the next big step forward in climate action must bring the public with us. We need to work together and to step beyond the lures of polarisation,to roll up our sleeves and to get down to business by identifying and changing the underlying reasons for past failures. 

Climate scientists have determined that the climate change horror of our time can be solved if 1000 cities implement the Paris Agreement. Response Firstly, the Paris agreement is flawed in a lot of ways as explained in a related post And secondly, there are 4 million cities in the world. 1000 cities may sound like a lot but it is 0.025 percent of the cities. Are climate scientists losing their marbles in their fear mongering desperation?

THE CLIMATE CHANGE RELIGION The world’s best climate experts have released the most comprehensive report on climate change ever made. The conclusions are sobering. Our climate is changing at a disastrous rate. Our leaders need to hear a message of hope, to step outside politics as usual and realise that people around the world are praying for them to be bold and do what is right.” ~ Rev. Fletcher Harper, OurVoices Anglican angst over climate change: “The Church of England’s Ethical Investment Advisory Group is reviewing its policy on ethical investment related to climate change, with some church officials calling for disinvestment from such companies to highlight the need to move to a low-carbon economy.” “The Church of England, mother church of the world’s 80 million Anglicans, holds total investments worth about 8 billion pounds ($US 13 billion) that are used to pay clergy pensions and fund the church’s work. If science, or the political consequences are not persuasive, consider God’s warning in the Book of Revelation (Rev. 11:18): “I will destroy those who destroy the earth.” Surely evangelical leaders, more than most, ought to pay attention.” ~ Richard Cizik, president, New Evangelical Partnership for the Common Good and spokesperson, The Good Steward Campaign, in Washington Post on 28 June 2013. I don’t think we can afford to wait to see if the worst case scenarios about climate change turn out to be true, this is a small step that we can take now towards a low carbon economy and therefore we should take it now before the climate situation gets really drastic.Reverend Dr Tim McKenzie, after the Wellington Diocese of the Anglican Church in New Zealand had voted to divest from fossil fuels. First of all: Take a stand and talk about it. One of the first thing your church, mosque, synagogue, temple or community could do, would be to take a stand on this issue of climate change, and then to make it public and visible to everyone similar to how a group of Australian religious leaders have written and published an open letter about climate change: “We urge all Australians to give this moral issue the attention it demands. Our world is a blessing, a gift, and a responsibility. We must act now is we are to protect this sacred trust. And similar to how 40 American corporations in the business world have done it when they signed the Climate Declation — more about this here. Like the Australian religious leaders have done it, you could unite with religious leaders and communities in your country from other religions, and make a similar declaration. Or… to begin with, you could simply announce a statement in your next newsletter to your own congregation. THAT would be a good start. Inspirational stories and sites about why going green and thinking strategically about sustainability makes a lot of common sense not only for environmentalists, but also in a religious perspective. Guide: How to live Laudato Si’Safeguarding Creation is everyone’s responsibility. “Journeying Towards Care for Our Common Home: The Laudato Si offers a guide to all Christians on how to maintain a healthy relationship with Creation.

WORST WILDFIRES IN HISTORY Posted by: chaamjamal on: June 30, 2021 In: Uncategorized Leave a Comment THIS POST IS A LIST OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES OF THE PAST THE PESHTIGO FIRE Map of fire On October 8, 1871, the most devastating forest fire in American history swept through northeast Wisconsin, claiming 1200 lives. The Area Research Center, the state historical society’s depository for records for 11 counties in Northeast Wisconsin, has papers and manuscripts that document the Peshtigo Fire. The story of the Peshtigo Fire is that railroad workers clearing land for tracks started a brush fire which, somehow, became an inferno. It had been an unusually dry summer, and the fire moved fast. The sudden, convulsive speed of the flames consumed available oxygen. Some trying to flee burst into flames. It scorched 1.2 million acres, although it skipped over the waters of Green Bay to burn parts of Door and Kewaunee counties. The damage estimate was at $169 million. The fire also burned 16 other towns, but the damage in Peshtigo was the worst. The city of Peshtigo was gone in an hour. In Peshtigo alone, 800 lives were lost. What most researchers find so fascinating is the effect of the Peshtigo Fire on people’s lives. Some people thought it was the end of the world. The fire produced countless stories of heroics and tragedy now stored in the Peshtigo Fire Museum in downtown Peshtigo. There’s the story of a man carrying a woman to safety he thought was his wife but it wasn’t. The Peshtigo River was the only haven from the fire, and one 13 year-old said she held onto the horn of a cow all night in the river to survive. The Peshtigo Fire Museum, located in a former church building, is located at the corner of Oconto Street and Ellis Avenue in Peshtigo. WILDFIRE#2 THE GREAT MICHIGAN FIRE It was Sunday, October 8, that fires near Peshtigo, Wisconsin, and Chicago came to life. No one is certain how they started. The Chicago fire’s popular lore tells that a cow, owned by Mrs. O’Leary, purportedly knocked over a lantern in her barn that set off the blaze. While in Wisconsin, a sudden fire mysteriously starts outside of Peshtigo. A few hours later, across Lake Michigan, fires erupt in Holland and Manistee. Later in the day, the fire rips across Michigan only to be stopped by Lake Huron’s shores north of Port Huron at the lake’s southern end. Historians and meteorologists point to a cyclone like a system of winds parked over the eastern plains in early October that fanned and fueled the fires. 1871 Chicago Fire Was Famous But The Peshtigo Fire Was Horrific 1871 Great Fire Escaping the Chicago Fire The fire in Chicago burns about three square miles of the city, consuming more than 17,000 buildings and 300 lives. The fire reached Peshtigo, Wisconsin Sunday evening, October 8th. Residents flee. Some survivors jumped into rivers to escape the flames and witness firestorms or “tornadoes of fire,” which devastated enormous areas. Some who went into the Peshtigo River during the fire boiled alive in the 2000 degree firestorm. Peshtigo September 1871 Peshtigo September 1871 – Library of Congress By the time the fire ended, it had consumed 1.5 million acres and an estimated 1,200-2,400 lives, including approximately 800 in Peshtigo. Only one building in Peshtigo survived the fire. Pleas for assistance from the area go unheeded as there was no telegraph service. The Peshtigo fire goes down in history as the worst fire disaster in the US of all time. When the Midwest Burned - The Great Fires of 1871 Images of Japanese Culture | map of Japan | Japan map, Japan tourism, Japan tourist THE TOKYO-YOKOHAMA FIRE OF 1923 CAUSED BY EARTHQUAKES. 143,000 FATALITIES THE TOKYO FIRE OF 1857 CAUSED BY EARTHQUAKES, 107,000 FATALITIES Looking Back on the 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake, Which Devastated Tokyo and Yokohama | Nippon.com THE MIRAMICHI FIRE OF 1825, 300,000 ACRES {CANADA} Miramichi Fire • Earth.comMiramichi Fire imaging fire THE GREAT OREGON FIRE OF 1845: 1.5 MILLION ACRES A Place in the History of Great Fires - The Night Portland Burned THE OREGON FIRE OF 1853, 180,000 ACRES Dangerous conditions complicate wildfire fight in western US | News | tribdem.com THE SILVERTON FIRE OF 1865. 1 MILLION ACRES 1865 in the United States - Wikiwand 1865 in the United States - Wikiwand THE HINCKLEY FIRE OF 1894, 160,000 ACRES 125 years ago, the Great Hinckley Fire became one of Minnesota's worst natural disasters | MPR News THE YACOLT FIRE OF 1902, 1 MILLION ACRES THE BIG BURN OF 1910: WASHINGTON, MONTANA, IDAHO, 3 MILLION ACRES The Big Burn' of 1910 transformed wildland firefighting. Will 2020 do the same? THE CLOQUET FIRE OF 1918 IN MINNESOTA: 1.2 MILLION ACRES THE TILLAMOOK BURN OF 1933/1951: 355,000 ACRES THE GREAT FIRES OF 1947: 200,000 ACRES IN MAINE LINK TO HIGH COUNTRY NEWS: https://www.hcn.org/issues/251/13986 EXTRACT Investigating the … arid lands, I passed through South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho by train. Among the valleys, with mountains on every side, during all that trip a mountain was never seen. This was because the fires in the mountains created such a smoke that the whole country was enveloped by it … ” This squinty-eyed report came from Major John Wesley Powell back in 1889. The fires that year were so widespread and fierce, they greatly impressed Powell, who had already faced the rigors of Civil War combat and Grand Canyon rapids. But pioneer-era fires like those Powell saw are seldom mentioned today amid all the sensational stories about the recent wildfires, which are said to be unnaturally large. That’s probably because they put the lie to the “unnaturally” part. “Fire in an ordinary year passes over the ground and burns the leaves and cones, etc., only,” Powell, the director of the U.S. Geological Survey at that time, reported to Congress. “But there come critical years … of great drought … and the fire starts and sweeps everything away.” The 1889 fires burned even more land than the famous 3-million-acre Big Blowup of 1910. Other huge fire years in the Northern Rockies and Northwest include 1869, 1846, 1823, 1802, 1784, 1778 and 1756, says a leading fire ecologist, Steve Arno. In the Central Rockies and Southwest, huge fire years include 1879, 1851, 1847, 1785, and 1748. In fact, fire ecologists say that far more land burned each year during the 1800s and earlier, than in recent years. In the preindustrial era, from 1500 to 1800, an average of 145 million acres burned every year nationwide — about 10 times more than the nation’s recent annual burns. In the West, Arno estimates that 18 to 25 million acres burned each year, as recently as the 1800s. Lightning strikes ignited some fires, while others were started by accident. Indians and settlers set many fires deliberately, to drive game, make room for their homes, stimulate their crops, or fight enemy tribes. Many of the burns were in grass or sagebrush. The total burned acreage dropped after the federal government launched the war on wildfires, and after much of the burnable land was converted to farms and settlements. There is disagreement about the impacts and severity of the fires in the old days, but there is “strong consensus,” Arno says, that smoky skies were more of a fact of life back then — and that we’re heading that direction again THE BOTTOM LINE SHIT HAPPENS. WE ARE NOT IN HEAVEN YET. THE KNEEJERK ATTRIBUTION OF THE SHIT THAT HAPPENS TO YOUR WORRY OF CHOICE IS NOT UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. IT IS SUPERSTITION. HUMANS ARE SUPERSTITIOUS CREATURES. RELATED POST ON SUPERSTITION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/ THE EVERYDAY MAGIC OF SUPERSTITION: LINK: https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/volume-29/november-2016/everyday-magic-superstition EXTRACT: There is something beguiling, folkloric and fantastical about our supersitious beliefs. They seem to whisper of pagan rites in ‘Merrye Olde Englande’, to speak of a time we rarely hear about in everyday, metropolitan Britain. Yet they steadfastly remain in our culture. English poet John Clare saw superstition as a long-standing tradition, left behind by ancient civilisations. In 1825 he wrote that these beliefs were ‘as old as England’, and that despite being difficult to trace historically, superstitions remain ‘as common to every memory as the seasons, and as familiar to children even as the rain and spring flowers’. He continued his sentimental appraisal thus: Superstition lives longer than books; it is engrafted on the human mind till it becomes a part of its existence; and is carried from generation to generation on the stream of eternity, with the proudest of fames, untroubled with the insect encroachments of oblivion which books are infested with. RELATED POST ON SUPERSTITION: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

THIS POST IS A RESPONSE TO A SCIENCE-ALERT ARTICLE OF OCTOBER 2020 THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS CHANGING THE SHAPE OF GREENLAND’S COASTLINE WITH THE IMPLICATION THAT THESE CHANGES CAN AND MUST BE STOPPED BY TAKING CLIMATE ACTION. LINK TO SCIENCE-ALERT ARTICLE: https://www.sciencealert.com/melting-ice-is-changing-greenland-s-coast-impacting-on-its-marine-ecosystems And from the Centre for International Governance Innovation we have this: If We Protect the Arctic, We Save the Planet. October 3, 2019: Sheila Watt-Cloutier on The Right to Be Cold - YouTube LINK: https://www.cigionline.org/articles/if-we-protect-arctic-we-save-planet iceland mantle plume | Science of Cycles Numerous Studies Confirm Geothermal Heat Melting Greenland Ice Sheet | Principia Scientific Intl. HERE WE PRESENT THE CASE THAT THE REGION IN QUESTION IS GEOLOGICALLY ACTIVE WITH MAGMATIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITY ALONG THE JAN MAYEN TREND AND THE GREENLAND-ICELAND MANTLE PLUME AND THAT THEREFORE A PURELY ATMOSPHERIC INTERPRETATION OF ICE MELT EVENTS IN THIS REGION IS NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT AND UNBIASED EVIDENCE OF SUCH CAUSATION.

American Institute for Economic Research Follow the science,” we are told, especially the junk science that climate alarmists invent. I recently debunked a piece of junk climate science whose alarmism was featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNN, CBS, and elsewhere. The junk science was produced by the Federal Reserve. Fed officials claimed that warming will cut economic growth by a third, but my simple statistical analysis showed their results were within the margin of error and that minor improvements and new data flip their result! Mainstream economics shows that warming will have minor economic effects compared to the economic growth we expect over the next century. That is a problem for the climate lobby, which unfortunately includes the Fed. Since economic growth will swamp the economic effects of global warming, the Fed set out, it seems, to prove that warming will reduce growth. The fact that Florida, on average 26 degrees warmer than Michigan, has grown faster didn’t faze them. The Fed isn’t the only institution to fall into chicanery. The study was published in a peer-reviewed academic economics journal, given wide media coverage, and cited in a congressional report to justify the Green New Deal. Bogus research makes big splashes. But when it is debunked, there isn’t a ripple. The best economic model, validated by a Nobel Prize for William Nordhaus, shows that if nothing is done to reduce emissions, warming will reduce world GDP by about three percent by the year 2100. If global GDP continues to grow at the rate it has been growing, then the world in 2100 will be five times richer than it is today. A three-percent reduction in GDP would make us 4.8 times richer instead of 5.0 times. Not exactly catastrophic! Mainstream economics doesn’t deny climate change and accepts that some policies to mitigate it might pass a cost-benefit test. But it does not predict a climate apocalypse, even if we do nothing. To support apocalyptic predictions, the Fed, it seems, went after growth. Their study looked at the relationship between seasonal temperatures and growth, state by state and year by year, from 1957-2012. Higher summer temperatures were statistically associated with lower growth, while higher fall temperatures were associated with higher growth, but the fall effect was smaller than the summer effect. There was no statistically significant association between growth and temperatures in the winter and spring, so they subtracted the summer effect from the fall effect and concluded that the overall effect of higher temperatures was to lower economic growth. The problem is that even if two estimates are statistically significant individually, their sum is not necessarily significant. For example, if moving to Florida would increase one person’s income by $1,000, plus or minus $100, but would lower his spouse’s income by $1,100 plus or minus $100, it is reasonable to say that the move will almost certainly raise the husband’s income and lower his wife’s income, but it is not nearly as clear that their total income will be lower. Even though the wife’s expected loss is higher than her husband’s gain, the odds that their overall income will be higher are substantial. In addition, I found that removing California from the sample switched the result to an increase in overall growth from a temperature increase, though without statistical significance. Using different data that measured the same things, the sign of the effect also flipped, though again without statistical significance. A statistically insignificant result that changes sign when estimated with different samples is exactly what we should expect if no true relationship exists. My work was published in Econ Journal Watch, another peer-reviewed academic journal that specializes in critiques of articles published in other journals. That the Fed engages in politically biased research should not surprise us. A recent study of Fed personnel shows that the institution is very lopsided, politically. Following the habits of good science is a good idea, but following the dictates of people who call themselves scientists is not the same thing. Climate change might be real, but there are good reasons to reject calls for draconian policies that fail cost-benefit tests.

Posted by: chaamjamal on: June 7, 2021 In: Uncategorized Leave a Comment Quora | UX Case Study. 'Who doesn't have questions and who… | by Namrata Dhall | UX Planet QUESTION: What large studies or meta-analyses have been published that provide the most irrefutable evidence that climate change is occurring and is dangerous? (1): That global waming is occurring is seen in the temperature data presented in the document linked below. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/ (2): That such warming trends can have both positive and negative effects on human civilization is seen in the the boom and bust cycles of human civilization described in the document linked below. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/24/collapse-of-civilization-part-2/ (3): A specific boom and bust cycle in this sequence is the rise and fall of the Late Bronze Age civilization where both the rise and the fall are attributed to climate change. A specific aspect of the Late Bronze Age collapse is that it gave rise to the religions of the early Iron Age that contain some kind of a genetic memory of that horror of the Late Bronze Age Collapse expressed as the END TIMES as well as things like Genesis that gives man dominion as the managers and caretakers of nature. This, I think, is what created man’s self image as the caretakers of nature in the Iron Age, an assumed role that leads to a tendency to interpret of all observed changes as impacts of humans. This bias can create the assumption of a human role in climate change such that this bias thus instilled makes it possible for humans to find a human cause under a wide range of the data conditions. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/15/divine-environmentalism/ Bronze Age Collapse - World History Encyclopedia (4): Human civilization is itself a creation of global warming. We used to be cannibalistic animals until the first of the Holocene’s global warming event came along. It brought the human animals came out of their caves to cut down forests, build homes, and start farming. GLOBAL WARMING CHANGED US FROM THIS: Image result for the paleolithic era of humans TO THIS …. AND CREATED HUMAN CIVILIZATION. Image result for HUMAN SOCIETY IN THE NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS A CREATION OF GLOBAL WARMING. (5): What we find in the history of global warming in the Holocene is that there are things about long term global cooling and warming trends that severely impact humans and nature in general although these impacts have been both good and bad in the history of the temperature cycles of the Holocene. However, I think the real issue in our obsession with the current warming trend is the human cause proposition imposed by climate science to explain one of many such temperature excursions of the Holocene. (6): Those who claim to understand these temperature excursions as cause and effect phenomena should explain all of them and not pick just one of them to explain. That kind of science contains a methodological flaw called “data selection bias” and confirmation bias. Don't let confirmation bias narrow your perspective — News Literacy Project Some say climate change marks the Anthropocene, a new geological age. They're wrong.

THE DALAI LAMA HAS A STARK WARNING FOR HUMANITY NOW 87 YEARS OLD,THIS SPIRITUAL LEADER OF THE WORLD'S BUDDHISTS ELABORATED ON HIS CLIMATE MESSAGE IN AN INTERVIEW WITH EMMA BARNETT. THE LOGICAL INTERPRETATION OF WHAT HE SAYS IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT A CREATION OF SOMETHING THAT WE DID WRONG THAT CAN BE CORRECTED BY FIXING OUR WRONGS AND TAKING CLIMATE ACTION. THIS IS WHAT CLIMATE SCIETISTS SAY. BUT WHAT THE DALAI LAMA SAYS IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS A NATURAL AND UNAVOIDABLE CONSEQUENCE OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION AND THAT THEREFORE THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CLIMATE ACTION IN THE CONTEXT OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION. THUS THE ISSUE HERE IS NOT FOSSIL FUELS. THE DALAI LAMA'S CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IS HUMAN CIVILIZATION THE ONLY CLIMATE ACTION IN THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF THE DALAI LAMA IS TO DO AWAY WITH HUMAN CIVILIZATION AND TO GO BACK TO THE GOOD OLD PRIMITIVE TIMES THAT GAVE US THINGS LIKE RELIGION AND HOLY MEN LIKE BUDDHA THAT WE MUST WORSHIP AND OBEY. IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT WE SEE HERE IS A STRATEGY ON HOW TO USE CLIMATE CHANGE TO SELL RELIGION.

PRAISE THE CLIMATE SCIENCE AND SAVE THE PLANET FIRST GOD CREATED THE HEAVENS AND THE EARTH AND IT WAS GOOD BUT THEN GOD WAS BORED AND DECIDED TO CREATE MAN. THINGS LOOKED GOOD FOR A WHILE AND GOD WAS PLEASED AND GAVE THE MAN A WOMAN. THEN THE MAN AND THE WOMAN BECAME EVIL AND GOT TOGETHER TO CREATE A POPULATION EXPLOSION UPON THE EARTH. IT WAS THEN THAT THE DEVIL APPEARED AND TRICKED THE POPULATION BOMB HUMANS INTO DIGGING UP FOSSIL FUELS FROM UNDER THE GROUND WHERE GOD HAD FORBIDDEN MAN FROM GOING. THIS SINFUL ACT OF MAN UPSET GOD’S DELICATELY BALANCED CARBON CYCLE AND BROUGHT THE HORROR OF CLIMATE CHANGE UPON THE EARTH THAT THREATENED TO DESTROY THE PLANET. DESPERATE TO SAVE THE PLANET THAT HE HAD CREATED AND THAT HE LOVED, GOD CREATED CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND SENT THEM TO SAVE HIS BELOVED PLANET. AND THE PLANET WOULD HAVE BEEN SAVED BY GOD’S GOOD CLIMATE SCIENTISTS BUT THE DEVIL WAS NOT DONE WITH THE EVIL THAT HE HAD STARTED BY SHOWING MAN THE FOSSIL FUELS. THE DEVIL FOUND CLIMATE DENIERS IN A DISTANT PLANET THAT GOD HAD FORSAKEN. THE DEVIL THEN CAUSED THE CLIMATE DENIERS TO APPEAR ON THE PLANET EARTH TO TAKE MONEY FROM EVIL FOSSIL FUEL CAPITALISTS AND THEN TO WRITE BLOGS AND POST TWEETS TO CONFUSE THE PEOPLE ABOUT THE SETTLED SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND TO LAY THE SEEDS OF DOUBT. IT IS THUS THAT THE PLANET THAT GOD CREATED AND LOVED IS NOW ON A DEAD END TRAJECTORY FOR DESTRUCTION IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2100. SADLY, THE DEVIL AND EVIL DENIERS HAVE TAKEN OVER THE PLANET THAT GOD LOVED. TOGETHER THEY HAVE CREATED THEIR OWN GEOLOGICAL PERIOD THEY CALL THE [ANTHROPOCENE].AND THAT MARKS THE END OF THE HUMANS AND THE PLANET EARTH THAT GOD LOVED. IF ONLY JIM AND TAMMY FAYE BAKKER WERE STILL HERE THEY COULD HAVE SPREAD THE MESSAGE OF THE GOOD CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THAT GOD HAD SENT AND THUS THEY COULD HAVE SAVED THE PLANET THAT GOD LOVES.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF CLIMATE FEAROLOGY Posted by: chaamjamal on: April 13, 2021 In: Uncategorized Leave a Comment Ignore the Fear Mongering, Here's What Climate Change Models Actually Say | Mises Wire 1980: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE since 1850 and the Industrial Revolution we have doubled atmospheric CO2 and if we continue to burn fossil fuels it could double again in the next fifty years (2030) because fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide faster than plants can absorb them. Warming could cause the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to crack and slide into the ocean to raise sea levels by 16 feet and submerge Florida just as it had done in the previous interglacial 130,000 years ago. There are too many uncertainties to asses the economic impact and the less we know the scarier it gets. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1981: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate change is related to ozone depletion and is just as scary if not more so. Chlorofluorocarbons, like carbon dioxide, also trap heat and cause global warming that can lead to melting polar ice caps and rising sea levels. The combination of CFC and CO2 emitted by human activity in the 1980s will raise temperature by 0.2 to 0.3 C rising even above the level of the 1930s, the warmest period of this century – OMG! OMG! 1981: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere could bring a global warming of unprecedented magnitude melting the polar ice caps and flooding lowlands in the next century. The temperature rise could be 4.5 to 8 F depending on the growth in fossil fuel consumption. A doubling of CO2 will cause a temperature rise of 6 F. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid disintegration and melting. A global mean temperature rise of 3.6 F could cause a rise of 9 F at Antarctica melting the Ice Sheet and raising sea levels by 15 to 20 feet and flooding 25% of Florida and Louisiana. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1982: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The use of fossil fuels will cause atmospheric carbon dioxide to double in the next 40 to 100 years raising temperatures by an average of 5 F by virtue of the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide traps heat. The warming will cause polar ice to melt. In high northern latitudes spring will come earlier and earlier and winter later and later causing a decline in soil moisture. Warmer temperatures and less rainfall will devastate agriculture in much of the United States and the Soviet Union but a more regular monsoon pattern in India will increase rice production. Glaciers will melt and raise sea levels. But the government is not taking these forecasts seriously enough. OMG! OMG! 1982: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE in the period 1940-1980 50,000 cubic km of polar ice has melted by global warming and the sea level has risen by thermal expansion as well as the added water from the ice melt. Global warming is “due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide” is self-canceling because melting ice absorbs latent heat and cools the ocean. As polar ice melts, the resultant re-distribution of the earth’s mass slows down its rotational speed. In the 40-year period studied, earth’s rotational speed was thus slowed by 0.00000004%. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1983: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The world is powerless to prevent a greenhouse effect that will dramatically alter food production and living patterns. Instead of fighting the inevitable world leaders should be planning how to cope with its catastrophic impact. Coastal cities without sea-walls will be flooded. The climate of NYC will be like the climate now found in Florida. The US wheat belt will move northward. All because of global warming caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. By the year 2100 these changes will produce catastrophic results. We should respond to this challenge with a sense of urgency. The warming process now set in place is irreversible and the dire predictions of global warming can only be delayed by a few years even with Draconian restrictions on fossil fuels. By the year 2000 the temperature could be 1.1 degrees higher, 3.6 degrees higher by 2040, and 9 degrees higher by 2100. The temperature rise in the poles will be three times higher melting the polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise 3.5 inches by 2000, one foot by 2025, and five feet by 2100. OMG! OMG! 1984: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming caused by carbon dioxide pollution will cause noticeable warming by 2000 and increase the evaporation rate of water causing the level of the Great Lakes to drop 30% by 2050. These changes will cause a prolonged severe drought that will turn the American prairies into a dust bowl in the next few decades. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1985: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The Polar Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences says that the sea level will rise 4-6 cm by 2000 and 12-27 cm by 2030 because global warming from the greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and melt glaciers and polar ice caps including Greenland. OMG! OMG! 1986: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The greenhouse effect will cause th earth to be warmer in he next decade than at any other time in the last 100,000 years and cause shoreline erosion, droughts, and other catastrophic changes just as the depletion of the ozone layer is doing. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago” and therefore that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are now palpable. The nightmare has arrived, “the greenhouse effect is here” with the NYT reporting that “humans, by burning fossil fuels , have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for centuries to come”. Southeast and Midwest states in the USA will experience “frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond” OMG! OMG! 1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE A buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels emitted by human activities into is causing the earth’s surface to warm by trapping infrared radiation from the sun and turning the entire earth into a kind of greenhouse – just as mathematical models had predicted. Sometime between 2025 to 2050 the earth will be 3F to 9F warmer with higher latitudes 20F warmer. mathematical models had predicted. Melting glaciers and polar ice and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise by one to four feet by 2050 OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The hottest years on record occurred in the 1980s with the first 5 months of this year very hot. Just as the models had predicted, the rise in temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up. Clearly, global warming by greenhouse gas emissions as predicted by these computer models has begun OMG! OMG! 1990: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming will cause serious environmental damage starting early in the next century long before the maximum predicted temperature is reached. We must set limits beyond which the global temperature and sea level should not be permitted to rise to avoid serious and ever increasing risks posed by the continued flow of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere at present rates. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1990: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the buildup of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption lead to rising temperatures worldwide, altered weather patterns, lower food production, and rising sea levels. In the long run the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of mitigation but government leaders do not understand that risk. OMG! OMG! 1993: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Using the most accurate system ever devised for measuring global sea levels,scientists have found a steady rise of 3 mm per year for the past two years. These data now establish beyond any doubt that the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. If this trend continues for another few years it will be solid evidence of a warming trend related to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Doubts about the reliability of older and less precise temperature data may now be put aside as the very accurate sea level data clearly establishes the scientific basis of global warming. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE After a three year hiatus the warming trend has returned. Global warming is not gone, it was just temporarily interrupted by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Temperatures have since rebounded to the levels of the 1980s – the warmest decade on record –reaching the record high of 60C reached in 1990. Global temperatures from March to December were the warmest since 1951. The mainstream view among researchers on climatic change is that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases could double by the end of the next century and that this could produce a global warming of 1.5C to 4.5C. By comparison, the earth is 3C to 5C warmer now than in the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago. A 2C warming,could cause ice at the poles to melt, rising sea levels, shifting climatic zones, and more extreme floods, droughts, storms, and cold and heat waves. Violent and frequent weather extremes have become more common since 1980. OMG! OMG! 1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming will bring altered crop growing seasons, more severe storms, more tropical diseases, and the inundation of low lying areas by rising seas. As to the cause, the scientific debate about whether the warming is a natural variation or caused by man has now been settled. A scientific consensus due to advances in computer modeling has emerged that the cause of the warming is the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emitted by man’s fossil fuel consumption. These findings are now beyond question. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE IPCC scientists are saying that the warming of the earth by 0.5C in the last 100 years is the biggest since the last ice age and is not within the range of natural variability. Therefore it must represent a man made influence on global climate. OMG! OMG! 1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the Northeast US was hit by record cold and snowfall but the blizzard of 1996 and the bitter cold in Europe were actually caused by global warming because warming increases evaporation that in turn increases precipitation. The bitter winter this year represents a southward bulge of the Arctic air mass caused by global warming. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The earth’s climate will change rapidly in the coming century as greenhouse gases trap solar radiation. Thousands could die in major cities in heat waves and tens of millions will face malaria epidemics in areas where the disease does not now occur. Last July a heat wave killed 465 people in Chicago alone. This is an issue that must be taken seriously. Climate negotiators are warned against taking a wait and see attitude because the consequences of inaction are dire. OMG! OMG! 1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Earth’s temperature will rise by 2C in the next 100 years with serious negative effects. Extreme temperatures will become normal. Habitats will change. Many plants and animals will become extinct. Some regions will suffer water shortages. Polar ice will melt. The sea level will rise. Emissions of greenhouse gases that trap solar energy will double by the year 2010. A 50% reduction in emissions over the next 50 years is needed to reverse the warming trend. We are not on track to meet emission the reduction needed. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Twenty years of hard data from meteorological stations and nature show a clear warming trend. Growth rings in Mongolian and Canadian trees are getting wider. Butterflies in California are moving to higher ground once too cold for butterflies. Stalactites in Britain are growing faster. The growing season for crops in Australia is getting longer. Permafrost in Siberia and Canada is melting. The evidence is there anywhere you look. A warming rate is one 1C per century is enough to wreak havoc. The cause is the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as well as CFCs and HCFCs that trap heat. The effect is being compounded as deforestation simultaneously removes trees that absorb CO2. Some scientists are skeptical but the majority view is that the greenhouse effect is real and it requires urgent action. This conclusion rests on the results from sophisticated computer simulation models that give the best possible information on this topic even though they are not perfect. These models are giving us scary accounts of the future and we should be paying attention. The IPCC tell us that melting ice and thermal expansion of oceans will cause the sea level to rise one meter by 2037 and inundate low lying areas and island nations. Extreme weather events will become common. El Nino and La Nina cycles will become more extreme. There will be millions of climate refugees driven from their home by global warming. Some regions of the world will become hotter, others colder, some wetter, others drier. Entire weather systems will be dramatically altered. The Gulf Stream will switch off. Tropical diseases such as malaria will ravage the world: OMG! OMG! 1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Entire nations among the Pacific islands vanish beneath the waves, coastal communities in the USA from North Carolina to the Texas Gulf wash out to sea, wild swings in precipitation first bring drought and then torrential rains and floods, coastal mudslides in California become routine, and maple trees of the North die out as dengue fever and mosquito borne encephalitis move in. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double in the next century, warming the atmosphere and triggering an environmental chain reaction that could raise sea levels, change ocean currents and intensify damage from storms, droughts and the spread of tropical diseases. 1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Last year was the hottest year on record and this decade has already produced 9 of the 11 hottest years of the century. The data show that man made greenhouse gases are causing a potentially disastrous warming of the earth. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE 1998 will be UK’s hottest year since 1106, “the warmest year of the millennium”; sometime between 2041 and 2070 we will see a sharp rise in sick, hungry, and thirsty people; by 2048 the world’s forests will become so degraded that they will change from net CO2 sinks to net CO2 producers further accelerating global warming; human greenhouse gas emissions have contributed substantially to global warming over the past half century; the climate model is validated by its ability to reconstruct the last 150 years of climate conditions; the 1997-1998 ElNino is the most extreme on record; in the next 100 years global temperatures will rise by 6C – the most extreme in the last 10,000 years. The Amazon forest will die out and rot releasing carbon dioxide. Tropical grasslands will be transformed into deserts. For the first half of the 21st century, vegetation will absorb CO2 at a rate of about 2-3 GtC per year while human emissions of CO2 are about 7GtC a year. From 2050 onwards, vegetation dying under the impact of climate change will itself add about 2GtC a year to greenhouse emissions, further intensifying global warming. Global warming will accelerat due to “positive feedback” – a way by which the global warming we have caused will itself cause further global warming. More than 170 million people will suffer from water shortage. Crop yields will increase in areas like Canada and Europe, but nearer the equator they will shrink. Some 18% more of Africa’s people will be at risk of hunger simply because of climate change. Sea levels will rise by 21 cm inundating 20 million people. Malaria infection will increase, and spread to areas where it is not currently seen. OMG! OMG! 1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The first half of 1998 was the warmest six months ever recorded on earth. The month of July, 1998 will also set a record. A heat wave in the Southwest has caused dozens of deaths with the hottest weather to hit the state since 1980. Tuesday was the 9th straight day that the temperature there has broken 100F. The heat wave is accompanied by drought that will drain $4.6 billion from the Texas economy in the next few months. Oklahoma had 6 deaths and Louisiana 20 deaths from the heat wave. According to NOAA data the near surface temperature for June 1998 over both land and water were at an all time high. There is no time in data history that we have seen this sequence of record setting for six consecutive months. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 1999: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. OMG! OMG! 1999: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE A computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2000: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Rapidly warming seas caused by global warming has turned coral reefs into endangered ecosystems. 25% of the world’s coral reefs are already gone. Without urgent and immediate CO2 emission reductions coral reefs will be completely gone from the planet in 30 to 50 years. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2000: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE A blue-ribbon panel of climate scientists from the National Academy of Sciences has issued a report saying that “global warming is undoubtedly real” and it is under way with dire consequences to follow. Global temperatures have risen more sharply in the last 20 years than at any time this century. OMG! OMG! 2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE so much CO2 has already been injected into the air that global warming is “already unstoppable”; the world is warming at an accelerating rate; tens of millions of people around the world will be driven from their homes in the coming decades to become climate change refugees; governments must take urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions; climate change is now so rapid that it is not possible for us to adapt to these changes; human ecosystems and biodiversity will all be affected and it will affect the world economy; the temperature rise in the next 100 years will be between 1.4C and 5.8C, significantly higher than previously thought; human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century; global warming will persist for many centuries by virtue of the CO2 we have already put into the air. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE global warming may trigger climate changes so abrupt that ecosystems will not be able to adapt. Look for local or short term cooling, floods, droughts, and other unexpected changes. A growing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels is to blame. Some regional climates have changed by as much as 10C in 10 years. Antarctica’s largest glaciers are rapidly thinning, and in the last 10 years have lost up to 150 feet of thickness in some places, enough to raise global sea levels by 0.4 mm OMG! OMG! 2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon dioxide from unhindered burning of fossil fuels will raise earth’s temperature 5.8C by 2100. The work of the panel over the last 10 years has now effectively ended the debate about man made global warming It is time for governments to get serious about reducing emissions.No country can afford to ignore the coming transformation of its natural and human environment. The poor and vulnerable are at greatest risk. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2002: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE 2002, ICE SHELF COLLAPSE A WARNING A piece of ice the size of Rhode island broke off the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica and within a month it dissipated sending a huge flotsam of ice into the sea. At about the same time an iceberg the size of Delaware broke off the Thwaites Glacier. A few months ago parts of the Ross ice shelf had broken off in a similar way. These events serve as a dramatic reminders that global warming is real and its effects are potentially catastrophic and underscores the urgent need for a binding international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2003: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon Soot that lands on snow has caused ¼ of the warming since 1880 because dirty snow traps more solar heat than pristine snow and induces a strong warming effect, according to a NASA computer model. This is why sea ice and glaciers are melting faster than they should. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2003: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Downhill skiing could disappear altogether in some areas. A retreating snow line will cut off base villages from their ski runs by 2030. Traditional low altitude ski resorts of Europe will have to either shut down or suffer higher costs of snow making. Global warming will push the altitude for ski resorts from 4265 feet to 4900-6000 feet. Austria’s snow line is set to rise by 656 to 984 feet in the next 30-50 years leaving many ski resorts behind. Temperatures are set to rise by 2C to 6C by 2100. Dramatic action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. This is a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Half of the 150 species of wildlife in the USA show signs that Global warming is changing our own back yard. Many species are going extinct in the southern edge of their range. Edith’s checkerspot butterfly is in sharp decline near the Mexico-California border where it has become too warm and dry. The red fox is heading north and can now be found in the Arctic. In Florida and the Gulf coast people are seeing many new species coming up from Mexico and the Caribbean. A previous worldwide study of 1500 species showed that this effect is global. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Up in the Arctic, polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinct. Arctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING WILL MELT THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET. A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are not reduced. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%; polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming” OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Our fossil fuel emissions are to blame. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2005: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE HURRICANE KATRINA WAS CAUSED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS In the 2004 hurricane season more than 14 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin. Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Climate scientists stepped up quickly and said that Katrina was confirmed as a climate change event by climate models. This is how fossil fuel emissiosn drive hurricane destructiveness. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2005: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE there are METHANE BOMBS IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2006: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the coral is doomed to extinction by gobal warming. Climate scientists see all coral bleaching as anomalous and unnatural and therefore symptoms of human caused global warming, as if they had never seen coral bleaching before. In 2006, they issued an alarm that “it was already too late for the coral” because we have put too much CO2 into the atmosphere and the warming and acidification of the oceans thus caused will kill off all the world’s coral. kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Bangkok, Thailand is threatened by global warming sea level rise. It has been more than a year now that scientists and climate experts sought a budget of 100 billion baht to build a sea wall 80 kilometers long from the mouth of the Ta Chin river to the Bang Pakong river to protect the city of Bangkok from being inundated by the sea that is projected to rise by 20 cm per year due to man-made global warming. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED. Climate scientists have declared that it is now too late to save the planet because we have passed the tipping point. The damage already done by the carbon dioxide has put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that will lead us to climate doom. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Greenland is meltinng. A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The rate of retreat of the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains has accelerated from 19 meters/yr in 1971 to 34 meters/yr in 2001. Extrapolation of the observed acceleration forward shows that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide is only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels has devastated the Andes Mountains in South America where they are losing their ice and water supplies. OMG! OMG! We must help these poor people by reducing fossil fuel emissions thereby curbing global warming and climate change. This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING. Climate science has found that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. The Arctic “is screaming”, Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE In the Bali climate meeting scientists declared that economic development is a bad thing because hurricanes, cyclones, snowstorms, and floods are killing people as a result of the war on nature waged by humanity burning fossil fuels in pursuit of economic development. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE REACHED A TIPPING POINT. THIS IMPLIES THATTHE WARMING ALREADY CREATED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WILL NOW DRIVE ITSELF WITH NATURAL FEEDBACKS. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE CONTINUED CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CAUSE PENGUINS TO BECOME EXTIINCT. The penguins are flightless and not well dispersed and therefore at risk of extinction. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE At the current rate of increase in the use of fossil fuels, the sea level would rise by 7 meters in 100 years and devastate low-lying countries like Bangladesh. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the dead planet Venus represents earth’s fate if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE droughts, floods, landslides, and rising sea levels are becoming commonplace in Indonesia OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE human activity is causing the earth to become warmer and that global warming will soon be out of control and that there will be devastating consequences to our use of fossil fuels. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and determined that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE In May 2008 Cyclone Nargis, with maximum wind speeds of 100 mph, struck Myanmar and caused a storm surge that went up the Irrawaddy River and killed 140,000 people. Climate science has since determined that Nargis was an impact climate change and that its deadly storm surge is a new property of tropical cyclones in this region that is a creation of climate change. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice fell to its lowest recorded level to date this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. OMMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2010: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon dioxide causes volcanic eruptions in Iceland. This is because carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming and global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2020: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing regions in the world. Diminishing sea ice, thawing permafrost and melting glaciers are all direct effects of rising global temperatures – driven by human-made emissions. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2017: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the warming in the Arctic is unprecedented in 1,500 years. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2018: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate change causes income inequality between hot low latitude countries, eg India, and cool high latitude countries, eg Sweden. The income inequality is described as an increasing spread in per capita GDP between the cool rich country and the hot poor country. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE as global temperatures rise, the world’s oceans are becoming more stable. Ocean stability implies that the upper layer trapping is more heat, and containing less nutrients, with a big impact on ocean life and the climate. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png 2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE THE GREAT BARRIER REEF IS ON THE PATH TO DESTRUCTION. The earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees and medium-range estimates forecast 1.5 degrees of warming by 2045 to 2050. Coral bleaching events, which are driven by hot weather and clear sunny days, now occur on average every six years and their frequency is set to rise. OMG! OMG! kerry arctic circle prize 2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE a third of Antarctic ice shelves risk collapsing due to climate change if the world fails to take sufficient action on climate change. The ice shelves circling the continent are vulnerable to meltwater on their surface causing the ice to crack and disintegrate, a process known as hydrofracturing. OMG! OMG! This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-35.png IPCC report points out the benefits of a tax shift | United by Tax

BBC PROVES HUMAN CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Posted by: chaamjamal on: January 17, 2022 In: Uncategorized 1 Comment LINK TO THE BBC ARTICLE: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59915690 PART-1: WHAT THE BBC CLIMATE CHANGE ARTICLE SAYS PAST SEVEN YEARS HOTTEST ON RECORD, EU SATELLITE DATA SHOW. The past seven years have been the hottest on record, according to new data from the EU’s satellite system. The Copernicus Climate Change Service said 2021 was the fifth-warmest year, with record-breaking heat in some regions. And the amount of warming gases in our atmosphere continued to increase. Governments are committed to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C to curb climate change. But scientists warn that time is fast running out. The environmental, human and economic costs of hotter temperatures are already being seen globally. Europe lived through its warmest summer, and temperature records in western US and Canada were broken by several degrees. Extreme wildfires in July and August burnt almost entire towns to the ground and killed hundreds. These events are a stark reminder of the need to change our ways, take decisive and effective steps toward a sustainable society and work towards reducing net carbon emissions. Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, explains: “The Copernicus data comes from a constellation of Sentinel satellites that monitor the Earth from orbit, as well as measurements taken at ground level. Fifth-warmest year: Copernicus data showed that 2021 was the fifth-hottest on record, marginally warmer than 2015 and 2018. Taken together, the past seven years were the hottest seven years on record by a clear margin, the agency explained. The 2021 average temperature was 1.1-1.2C above the pre-industrial level around 150 years ago. It would be easy to dismiss the latest global temperature figure as a non-event. Who celebrates fifth place in anything? If we were in a film, these annual temperature updates would be the ominous drum beat signalling the plot is darkening. They measure out the pace of change in our world. The increments may be tiny – a fraction of a degree – but the direction of travel is inescapable. And make no mistake, the rhythm they mark out increasingly sets the pace for all our lives. Think of the fires and floods that affected so many people in 2021. And now look again at what the data is telling us: the seven hottest years ever recorded have been the last seven years. We can’t say we weren’t warned. The agency said that the start of the year saw relatively low temperatures compared to recent years, but that by June monthly temperatures were at least among the warmest four recorded. Places with above average temperatures included the west coast of US and Canada, north-east Canada and Greenland, large parts of north and central Africa, and the Middle East. The weather phenomenon known as La Niña – when surface sea temperatures are cooler – contributed to below-average temperatures in western and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and the central and eastern Pacific during the start and end of 2021. Europe’s warmest summer: Overall Europe’s annual temperature was outside the ten warmest years on record but the summer was the hottest. A heatwave swept through Mediterranean in July and August, particularly affecting Greece, Spain and Italy. How hot could it get where you live? California fires threaten to ravage mighty forests. In Sicily, 48.8C degrees was reported, breaking Europe’s record for highest temperature by 0.8C. The hot temperatures in the eastern and central Mediterranean was followed by intense wildfires particular in Turkey but also in Greece, Italy, Tunisia and Algeria. And Europe also saw extreme wet weather, with huge floods devastating parts of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. These events were part of the same picture of weather systems disrupted by climate change. Warming gases increased: The concentration in the earth’s atmosphere of two gases that significantly contribute to climate change rose in 2021, said Copernicus. Carbon dioxide concentrations reached 414.3 parts per million last year, growing at a similar rate to 2020. Climate change is causing once-mighty rivers to dry up and temperatures to rise to deadly levels in Mexico. But scientists remarked that methane levels in the atmosphere increased to reach an unprecedented approximately 1,876 parts per billion. The growth rate of methane was also higher than in 2020 – Copernicus said both rates were very high compared to the past two decades of satellite data. Scientist say it is important to reduce methane levels because it is more potent than CO2, however it lasts much less time in the Earth’s atmosphere. The increasing concentrations of these gases showed no signs of slowing down, concluded Vincent-Henri Peuch, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. More data about 2021’s temperatures will be released in the coming days from other agencies including from Nasa and the UK’s Met Office. PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY ITEM#1: PAST SEVEN YEARS HOTTEST ON RECORD RESPONSE: IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING THE WARMING PART REFERS TO A LONG TERM (LONGER THAN 30 YEARS) SUSTAINED RISING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE OBSERVATION THAT THE PAST SEVEN YEARS WERE THE HOTTEST ON RECORD HAS NO INTERPRETATION. THE RELEVANT VARIABLLE IN THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING IS LONG TERM WARMING NOT A PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURE PARTICULARLY SO WHEN IT IS NECESARY TO LIMIT THE REFERENCE TIME PERIOD TO THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD WITH THE PHRASE “ON RECORD” ITEM#2: IT IS NECESSARY TO LIMIT THE WARMING TO 1.5C RESPONSE: THE PHRASE “LIMIT THE WARMING TO 1,5C”, IS A REFERENCE TO THE IPCC / CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION THAT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL” MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO EXCEED 1.5C. TO ENFORCE OR TO COMPLY WITH THIS REQUIREMENT IT IS NECESSARY TO KNOW WHEN THAT PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, IT TURNS OUT THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR PLAYS THIS CRITICAL ROLE IN THE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CORRESPONDING PLAN FOR CLIMATE ACTION, IT TURNS OUT THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT KNOW WHEN THIS PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS THEN: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/ . WHAT WE FIND IN THIS LINKED DOCUMENT IS THAT THE IPCC HAD INITIALLY SAID THAT THIS CRITICAL PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS 1750. IN A LATER REPORT THEY CHANGED THE REFERENCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR TO 1850 WITHOUT EXPLANATION. MUCH LATER ESTEEMED CLIMATE SCIENTIST JAMES HANSEN, RECOGNIZED AS “THE FATHER OF CLIMATE CHANGE”, ALONG WITH THE THE USA SPACE AGENCY NASA, CHANGED THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL START YEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO 1950. THEY CITED THE ETCW ANOMALY, {EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING ANOMALY} AS THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE IN THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR. THE ETCW ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THE OBSEERVATION BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THAT THE WARMING FROM 1900 TO THE 1970S CANNOT BE EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF THE KNOWN RATE OF CO2 RISE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. A SPECIFIC ISSUE IN THIS REGARD IS THAT THE MUCH HERALDED EARLY CLIMATE CHANGE PAPER IN 1938 BY GUY CALLENDAR THAT HAD IDENTIFIED THE YEAR 1900 AS THE REFERENCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR, IS NOW INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT VERSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE. THE ODDITY OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SCIENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE THAT DEFINE THE CLIMATE ACTION WE MUST TAKE ARE WHEN THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS THEN, IT TURNS OUT THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT KNOW THE VALUE OF EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES. IN THAT CONTEXT, ALL THIS TALK ABOUT NOT EXCEEDING 1.5C OF WARMING “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL” IS MEANINGLESS BECAUSE WE KNOW NEITHER WHEN THAT WAS NOR WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS BACK THEN. AN YET THIS SUPPOSED CRITICAL AMOUNT OF WARMING PLAYS THE KEY ROLE IN DEFINING AND DEMANDING CLIMATE ACTION. CONCLUSION: CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS LOST ITS WAY AND NOW NEEDS THE MEDIA AND ALL THEIR FANCY LANGUAGE TO SELL THEIR SCIENCE BECAUSE IT CAN’T BE SOLD IN A PURELY SCIENTIFIC CONTEXT. UNDER THE CONDITIONS ABOVE, THE CLAIM THAT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO EXCEED 1.5C SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL HAS NO MEANING AND NO INTERPRETATION.. Three Stooges 3D Anaglyph cards - Topic CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALSO TELL US THAT THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE STARTED WHEN THE LITTLE ICE AGE ENDED BUT THEY DON’T KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW THAT HAPPENED. DETAILS IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/23/a-natural-recovery-from-the-lia/ A FURTHER NOTE IN THIS REGARD IS THAT INTERGLACIAL WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES ARE NATURAL SUCH THAT HUMAN CAUSE CANNOT BE ASSSUMED BUT RATHER SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE FOR SUCH CAUSATION MUST BE PROVIDED. RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2022/01/05/holocene-global-warming-and-climate-change-cycles/ RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/

 https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/list-of-posts-on-ozone-depletion/ 

 

KATHARINE HAYHOE, CLIMATE SCIENTIST

Posted by: chaamjamal on: December 25, 2020

• In: Uncategorized
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THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A TED CLIMATE SCIENCE LECTURE BY KATHARINE HAYHOE ON YOUTUBE. THE TITLE OF THE LECTURE IS “WHAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL?”

LINK TO YOUTUBE VIDEO: https://youtu.be/PtrYNGs9oRM

PART-1: A TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE

We’re known for a lot of things here in West Texas. One of the things we’re very well known for is our fields of white cotton. and the friendly farmers. We don’t just grow cotton we also raise cows and we’re very well known for what we do with those cows (BARBECUE TRI TIP RIBS). And of course no talk at Texas Tech would be complete without mentioning something else we’re very well known for here in West Texas and that is our world class football. But there is something we are not so well known for here in West Texas. And it’s something we’ve seen a lot of lately. And I have to admit that when I was scraping the snow and ice off my car, I was tempted to think “Where’s global warming now? I’d like a little of that please! This is not what our winters should look like.

SO HERE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WHAT IF THOUGH?

WHAT IF THIS GLOBAL WARMING THING IS … REAL?

WHAT IF, DESPITE OUR HANDS FREEZING OFF AND OUR TOES FEELING LIKE THEY HAVE TO BE AMPUTATED, WHAT IF THIS CLIMATE CHANGE THING IS REALLY REAL????

Well, if we look at what our temperatures look like recently, we see that yes, it was really cold where we are. BUT … if we look at other parts of the world we see that it was really warm. In fact, Alaska was just as much warmer than average as we have been colder than average. The lesson here is that it isn’t just what we see in front of our own eyes that can tell us whether global warming is real.

I want to tell you about a fun little experiment we did a couple of years ago If you take a group of people and divide them in half. Half of the people got put in a room that was quite warm (81F), uncomfortably warm. The other half of the people were put in a room at a comfortable room temperature (73F). And then the people were asked this question: IS CLIMATE CHANGE REAL? What do you think happened? Yes! it’s actually what you think. The group in the uncomfortably warm room said YES, climate change is real, global warming is real, I feel warm. The group in the cold room said NO! I actually feel that it isn’t. THAT’S HOW SENSITIVE WE ARE TO OUR ENVIRONMENT. Our physical experience informed us our brain sometimes in a conscious way and sometimes in an unconscious way. SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS ISSUE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE WE HAVE TO LOOK GLOBALLY. We can’t just look in the place where we live. Not only that but we have to look over a sufficiently long period of time. Weather is what we all know and remember – what happens at a single place at a single time. Weather is like a tree and climate on the other hand is like a forest. Climate is long term average weather over 20 to 30 years. So (in the climate change issue) we’re not talking about weather, we are talking about WHETHER OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING. That means we have to look over multiple decades.

So if we look here, this is the temperature of the earth starting in 1900 and we see that one year may be colder than the other and one might be warmer than the other but over the century as we correct for time our planet is getting warmer and warmer. That’s what we see in the data around the world. When we look further into time we see not only that but we are starting to break all kinds of records. Last year was, believe it or not, the warmest year on record. Even while it was slightly below average across the Eastern USA. If you just look at the Eastern USA where people are saying Oh it’s freezing in Atlanta, it’s freezing in Chicago, but the world is like “Oh it’s so hot, come visit us”.

But there are people saying that “This global warming has stopped”. Some of these people even show me some data looking at for example selected time spans such as 2001-2011, and it is true that if you pick and choose specific geographies and or time spans you can find the data that will support whatever hypothesis you’re looking to support (DATA SELECTION BIAS). But if you look at all the data without a data selection bias, you get an unbiased view that is very different. So be suspicious of people touting trends with a data selection bias to prove something. One thing we can know in science is that we can’t just throw out the data we don’t like just because we don’t like it. 5.49

If you go to the doctor and the doctor says you really need this procedure and you say, well, I don’t like it. So no, I will not do it. You are allowed to do that but it is not very wise. (He’s the doctor and you aren’t). And in fact, when you include 2014 in the data series you will see that it was the highest temperature on record. BUT you may say, OK, that’s just a thermometer and humans have been using these thermometers for a while. Is there any other evidence that it was the warmest? There is this. If you go up to the Arctic you will see permanently frozen ground melting and the homes of hundreds of Native American villages crumbling and falling into the ocean. We see that trees and flowers are blooming weeks earlier this year than they have over hundreds of years in the data record. We see that our heavy rainfall and even our heavy snowfall are getting worse as the humidity of the atmosphere increases. Warmer air means more water evaporates from our oceans, our lakes, and our rivers. And we see that our hurricanes are getting stronger because hurricanes are powered by warm ocean water and our oceans are warming.

If we look around the world we see 26,500 indicators of a warming planet. It is telling us that the planet is warming. So, is climate changing? Yes it is.

BUT … hasn’t the climate always changed before? Yes! It has changed before. It has changed because of different amounts of energy from the sun, and it has changed because of natural cycles. That is actually a large part of what we climate scientists do, We spend a lot of time studying the natural reasons of why climate changes on this planet. And when we study those natural reasons, this is what we see. Let’s look at the sun first. This is the temperature of the earth. Now let’s look at the energy from the sun but before we do I just want to ask you this question: If our earth temperature was going up, would that mean we are getting more energy from the sun or less energy from the sun?

The answer is “more” and in fact that’s how we know that we are getting more energy from the sun. Now let’s look at the sun’s energy and earth’s temperature together. The sun’s energy was going up until the 1970s but since then it’s been going down while the temperature went up. It can’t be the sun that’s controlling our current temperature because if it were we’d be getting cooler not warmer. So it can’t be the sun but maybe it’s a natural cycle. We know all the natural cycles here in West Texas, don’t we? We know about El Nino, we know about the droughts that La Nina brings and we’re certainly hoping that we’re going to get a nice wet year in the future. We have to recognize other things All that these cycles do is to move the heat around the earth. They don’t make the entire planet hotter or the entire planet colder They just move the heat from north or east to west and also between atmosphere and ocean.

So when we look at the whole planet there is only one type of natural cycle that causes the whole planet to get warmer and cooler. And that’s the natural cycle that creates glaciation cycles {“ice age”). So we know that we had a glaciation long time ago and we know that the glaciation ended when 10,000 yeas ago So the natural question is aren’t we still getting warmer from deglaciation? The answer is no because the warming trend of deglaciation peaked about 8,000 years ago. And if we look at the earth’s temperature for the last 6,000 years, this is what we see. Do you believe that? Our planet was actually getting cooler and our carbon dioxide level was stable until when?

Something happened about 300 years ago and we can see that in the earth’s record. Then and only then do we as climate scientists have intellectual permission say Ok then well “what happened at that time?”. Why is our climate changing? And when we do, it’s pretty easy to figure out where to point the finger.

We know that about 300 years ago we figured out how to take massive amounts of coal, oil, and natural gas out of the ground and burn them. It was a tremendous technological innovation. We would not be sitting here today if it were not for the industrial revolution (1760). I would not be alive today if it were not for the medical advances that came with the industrial revolution. The industrial revolution was an amazing thing for humankind. It brought untold benefits to our lives and our society… BUT… what we did not know at the time of the industrial revolution was that when we burn fossil fuels it produces a heat trapping gas called carbon dioxide (CO2).

Why do we care about carbon dioxide? We care about it because our planet has this amazing natural blanket. That natural blanket is totally transparent to energy from the sun. The energy from the sun comes in and hits the earth and the earth heats up. And then the earth heats up and gives off heat and those little invisible particles of carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor trap that heat inside the earth system. Now this is entirely natural and a good thing because we’d be 60F colder today if it weren’t for this natural blanket. We’d be a frozen ball of ice if it weren’t for this blanket. So what’s the problem?

The problem is that we have been adding to that blanket. And so just like my grandma used to do on a cold night, she’d sneak into our room on cold night and put some extra blankets over us because she was afraid we’d freeze to death. We did have central heating. And so we’d wake up in the middle of the night saying “Grandma I did not need this blanket! That’s what we’re doing to our planet. We are sneaking up on our planet and we’re wrapping and extra blanket around our planet. And our planet is heating up.

SO, IS CLIMATE CHANGING? – YES IT IS!

DO WE KNOW WHY IT’S CHANGING? – YES, WE DO.

AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HUMAN CIVILIZATION, IT’S US. WE ARE MAKING THE CLIMATE CHANGE.

AND THAT LEADS US TO OUR FINAL QUESTION –

SO WHAT? WHAT DO WE DO?

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION BECAUSE THIS IS WHY WE CARE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

IT’S BECAUSE OUR CIVILIZATION IS BUILT ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE CAN HAVE UPS AND DOWNS HEAT AND DROUGHT COLD AND WET BUT IT WILL ALL AVERAGE OUT IN THE END. WHAT HAPPENS IF IT DOESN’T AVERAGE OUT IN THE END?

A THOUSAND YEARS AGO WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF SEA LEVELS WENT UP 3 FEET IN HOUSTON? OR IF THE CARIBOU MOVED TO NORTHERN ALASKA? NOT MUCH. BUT TODAY SUCH CHANGES WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT AND THAT IS WHY WE CARE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE HERE IN TEXAS. WE’RE SEEING INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES LIKE THE 2011 WILDFIRES. WE’RE SEEING INCREASED RISK OF DROUGHT AS HOTTER TEMPERATURES BAKE OUR SOIL. AND WE’RE EVEN SEEING INCREASED RISK OF FLOODS AS WARMER AIR MEANS MORE WATER AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT THE STORMS COULD PICK UP AND DUMP ON US. CLIMATE MAKES WEATHER MORE EXTREME.

SO WHAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO DO? TWO THINGS. THE FIRST THING WE NEED TO DO IS TO PREPARE FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE. FOR YEARS WE HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING OUR SOCIETY AS IF WE’RE DRIVING DOWN A DEAD STRAIGHT ROAD FROM LUBBOCK TO PLAINVIEW LOOKING IN OUR REAR VIEW MIRROR TO KEEP US ON THE ROAD. IT WORKS AS LONG AS THE ROAD WE ARE ON HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE WE WERE LAST ON IT UNLESS THERE IS A NEW CURVE IN THE ROAD UP AHEAD THAT WASN’T THERE BEFORE SO THAT IF YOU ARE STILL LOOKING IN YOUR REAR VIEW MIRROR YOU WILL HAVE A BAD ACCIDENT. THE ANALOGY IS THAT BUSINESS AS USUAL OF PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE WITH WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE PAST IS NO LONGER GOING TO WORK. WENOW HAVE TO RELY ON UNCERTAIN FORECASTS OF THE FUTURE AND PREPARE FOR DIFFERENT OUTCOMES THAT WHAT WE ARE USED TO. THE PAST IS A GOOD PREDICTER FOR THE FUTURE ONLY UNDER STEADY STATE CONDITIONS. THIS METHOD OF PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE IS NO LONGER VALID BECAUSE OF OUR CHANGING CLIMATE.

THIS IS WHY WE NEED CLIMATE SCIENTISTS TO LOOK DOWN THE ROAD FOR 20, 30, OR 40 YEARS TO TELL US THIS IS WHAT OUR WATER’S GOING TO LOOK LIKE, THIS IS WHAT OUR ENERGY DEMAND IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE, AND THESE ARE THE PLACE WHERE WE CAN GROW OUR FOOD AND OUR CROPS. BUT THERE IS ONE MORE THING WE NEED TO DO. WE ARE PUTTING THIS EXTRA BLANKET AROUND THE EARTH AND THAT BLANKET IS MADE UP OF HEAT TRAPPING GASES LIKE CARBON DIOXIDE. IF WE KEEP WRAPPING THICKER AND THICKER BLANKETS AROUND THE PLANET IT WILL HEAT UP FASTER AND FASTER AND OUR EXTREME WEATHER DESTRUCTIONS ARE GOING TO GET WORSE AND WORSE. AND THAT IS WHY IT IS ESSENTIAL TO TRANSITION FROM OUR OLD, DIRTY, AND INEFFICIENT SOURCES OF ENERGY TO NEW CLEAN SOURCES OF ENERGY THAT WILL NEVER RUN OUT ON US. EVERY TIME WE FLY INTO LUBBOCK WE SEE THESE ENORMOUS WINDFARMS THAT WE PASS OVER. LAST YEAR WE SET A RECORD HERE IN TEXAS WHEN IN THE MONTH OF MARCH WE GOT A THIRD OF OUR ELECTRICITY FROM WIND. SO THE ANSWER TO WHAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL IS A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY. WE HAVE ENOUGH SOLAR POTENTIAL HERE IN TEXAS TO POWER THE ENTIRE WORLD TWO TIMES OVER. THIS IS WHY MY ANSWER TO THE QUESTION OF “WHAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL” IS THAT IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL TEXAS CAN LEAD THE WORLD TO A BETTER FURURE.

THE VIEW OUR OF KATHARINE’S AIRLINE WINDOW

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

ITEM#1: SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS ISSUE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE WE HAVE TO LOOK GLOBALLY. We can’t just look in the place where we live. Not only that but we have to look over a sufficiently long period of time. Weather is what we all know and remember – what happens at a single place at a single time. Weather is like a tree and climate on the other hand is like a forest. Climate is long term average weather over 20 to 30 years. So (in the climate change issue) we’re not talking about weather, we are talking about WHETHER OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING. That means we have to look over multiple decades.

COMMENT#1: This is a very relevant and important principle in climate science that is apparently not well understood in climate science. In the literature it is described as the “Internal Climate Variability” issue. It is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ (ICV). Briefly, anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW) is a theory about long term trends in global mean temperature and therefore the data can only be understood in this context, over a sufficiently long time span of 30 years or more, and over a sufficient geographical span that is global or a significant latitudinal section thereof. Specifically, the ICV issue implies that geographically localized data over brief time spans have no interpretation in terms of AGW. Although climate scientists preach this principle with great force and clarity as seen in the lecture being reviewed, it is frequently violated by climate scientists themselves as seen in later parts of this very lecture. Example#1: As an example, the hottest year on record claim found in this lecture is a one-year event without the long multi-decadal time span needed for an interpretation in terms of AGW. Example#2: Yet another violation of this ICV principle of climate science claimed in this lecture is the usual practice in climate science of claiming individual localized extreme weather and wildfire events post hoc as a climate change impact with the implication that the climate action demanded by climate science will prevent such events from occurring in the future. This part of climate science, described as science, as in “Event Attribution Science”, is a violation of the ICV principle and the principle of the long time span and large global span requirements explained so well in this lecture. This excellent lecture implies that for climate science to claim an impact of AGW on extreme weather, a long term trend in a summation of all global extreme weather events must be shown and a rationale for the observed trend if any must be provided apriori. Details of this issue in terms of the methodological flaws in the extreme weather event attribution procedure of climate science are explored in a number of related posts on this site:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/18/climate-change-causes-extreme-weather-events/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/26/climate-change-kills/

ITEM#2: DATA SELECTION BIAS: The lecture rightly points out that climate denial arguments that commit the fallacy of data selection bias are not credible. As for example CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS claiming that “GLOBAL WARMING HAS STOPPED” select specific geographical regions or time spans where the data appear to support their hypothesis. These claims do not show that climate change is not real or that climate change has stopped because of the flawed and biased methodology employed.

COMMENT#2: It is true that data selection bias in research invalidates the the conclusions drawn from that research but that principle applies equally to deniers and climate scientists. In the lecture we are told that “So when we look at the whole planet there is only one type of natural cycle that causes the whole planet to get warmer and cooler. And that’s the natural cycle that creates glaciation cycles“. This statement is false. There are significant temperature cycles in the Holocene interglacial and the one we are in is the most recent such temperature cycle. Therefore, that climate science has chosen to explain only one of them is a form of data selection bias. Therefore data selection bias is also found in the work of climate science that has itself stated in this lecture that data selection bias invalidates research findings. The most significant example of data selection bias in climate science is the selection of the warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) as a cause and effect phenomenon that can be explained in terms of human activity since the industrial revolution that appears to be timed just right for that change in the temperature trend. Significantly this warming cycle of the Holocene comes late in the progress of the interglacial for about 9,000 years. It was preceded by 8 other temperature cycles at centennial and millennial time scales, both warming and cooling described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ . There we provide an extensive literature review and find that (1) {Glaciation is not a linear and well behaved period of cooling and ice accumulation and deglaciation is not a linear and well behaved period of warming and ice dissipation but that rather, both glaciation and deglaciation are chaotic events consisting of both processes and differentiated only by a slight advantage to ice accumulation in glaciation and a slight advantage to ice dissipation in deglaciation and interglacials}. In this context we propose that if climate science can explain these Holocene temperature cycles as deterministic cause and effect phenomena, they must explain all of them and not just pick one of them to explain in that way because that kind of empirical research is subject to data selection bias, confirmation bias, and circular reasoning. Therefore, the climate science of Anthropogenic Global Warming and Climate Change that has selected only the post LIA warming cycle to explain as a cause and effect phenomenon contains a fatal methodological flaw. In a related post, Charles David Keeling, of Keeling Curve fame, makes a similar argument against climate science and proposes a theory to explain all of the temperature cycles of the Holocene: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/05/tidalcyclesbiblio/ . The Keeling paper is discussed in this related post in the context of a bibliography of other theories to explain Holocene temperature cycles. This is what climate science must do. A theory to explain Holocene temperature cycles must explain all of them. The selection of the most recent such cycle to explain as a cause and effect phenomenon is a case of data selection bias and confirmation bias.

ITEM#3: CHANGES OF CONVENIENCE TO FIXED PARAMETERS: The lecturer shows a chart of atmospheric CO2 data saying that throughout history the CO2 level has been steady with some random up and down movements without a trend but that then something happened 300 years ago that coincides with a rising trend in atmospheric CO2 as seen in the chart above. We are told that the something that happened 300 years ago was the Industrial Revolution. The theory of AGW climate change as proposed is that it is a creation of the industrial economy such that it can be traced to the Industrial Revolution when the industrial economy got started.

COMMENT#3: The Industrial Revolution is thought to have started in England and spread to Europe and America over the period 1760 to 1840 with a median of 1800. The importance of the determination of this start year lies in the importance in climate science of “warming since pre-industrial“. This is because climate science has determined that the amount of warming since pre-industrial must not be allowed to exceed a benchmark value beyond which natural feedback processes will take over and make it impossible for humans to contain climate change with climate action consisting of not using fossil fuels. Therefore it is critical for us to know the reference pre-industrial year and to know the temperature in that reference pre-industrial year. In this lecture we are shown that the CO2 level began rising “300 years ago” which we can assume to be the year 2020-300=1720 but there was no industrial economy in 1720 so perhaps it’s a rounding error and that the real start of the curve was 260 years ago in 1760. This is consistent with the first IPCC report of 2001 where the pre-industrial reference year is set to 1760. However, in the 2015 IPCC report this pre-industrial year when CO2 began to rise and where we must find the reference temperature to measure warming since pre-industrial, was moved up to 1850, 170 years ago and not 300 years ago. This change is inconsistent with the claim in the lecture that what got this global warming started was something that happened 300 years ago. We also find that the identification of this critical pre-industrial year is different among climate scientists. For example NASA rocket scientists turned climate scientists and their premier climate scientist Dr. James Hansen have determined that this critical pre-industrial reference year when global warming began is 1950 and not 1850 found in the IPCC 2015 report. Yet another complication in this matter is an unsettled issue in climate science called the ETCW or Early Twentieth Century Warming discussed in a related post:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/the-etcw-issue-in-climate-science/

This is a reference to the determination by climate science that the observed warming from 1850 to 1950 is anomalous and cannot be explained in terms of rising CO2. See for example Knutson 2000 where he writes, “The observed global warming of the past century occurred primarily in two distinct 20-year periods, from 1925 to 1944 and from 1978 to the present. Although the latter warming is often attributed to a human-induced increase of greenhouse gases, causes of the earlier warming are less clear because this period precedes the time of strongest increases in human-induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing. Results from a set of six integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model suggest that the warming of the early 20th century could have resulted from a combination of human-induced radiative forcing and an unusually large realization of internal multidecadal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This conclusion is dependent on the model’s climate sensitivity, internal variability, and the specification of the time-varying human-induced radiative forcing”. The use of 1950 as the reference pre-industrial year by NASA and others may be understood in this context. The conclusion we draw about the CO2 curve presented by the lecturer showing that the the long term CO2 curve with no trend “began to rise 300 years ago because something happened 300 years ago” is that this curve has no interpretation in terms of climate change science as understood by James Hansen, NASA, and the IPCC.

ITEM#4: The problem is that we have been adding to that blanket. And so just like my grandma used to do on a cold night, she’d sneak into our room on cold night and put some extra blankets over us because she was afraid we’d freeze to death. And so we’d wake up in the middle of the night saying “Grandma I did not need this blanket! That’s what we’re doing to our planet. We are sneaking up on our planet and we’re wrapping and extra blanket around our planet. And our planet is heating up.

COMMENT#4: This is the case against fossil fuels in climate change science. It holds that since the Industrial Revolution atmospheric CO2 concentration has been going up (ignoring the data here that the rise in atmospheric CO2 began prior to the Industrial Revolution as seen in item 3 above) and what is different about the industrial economy is that we are burning fossil fuels. Based on this concurrence climate science concluded that there must be a causation relationship between fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentration such that fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy cause atmospheric CO2 to rise. This is the critical link between fossil fuels and global warming. Yet, as seen in the many humorous examples of spurious correlations by Tyler Vigen, concurrence does not prove causation.

Although it is true that correlation does not prove causation, at the minimum it must be shown that a statistically significant relationship exists at the time scale of the proposed causation. In climate science the assumed time scale is annual such that annual fossil fuel emissions cause annual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The time scale can be imposed on the correlation test by first detrending the two time series and then computing the detrended correlation between them at the time scale of interest, in this case an annual time scale. This work has been carried out in two related posts on this site where we find no detrended correlation at an annual time scale:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/

A more comprehensive study of the relationship between emissions and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration is presented in yet another related post on this site:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/21/the-case-against-fossil-fuels/

The results of the analysis presented in these related posts show that there is no evidence that atmospheric CO2 concentration is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. The observation by climate science that atmospheric CO2 has been rising at a time of fossil fuel emissions is a case of concurrence that does not serve as evidence for causation. No evidence for this critical causation in climate science is found in climate science or in this lecture.

ITEM#5: CLEAN ENERGY: At the end of a lecture on how fossil fuel emissions cause warming with the implication that warming can be hazardous and that the rate of warming can and must be attenuated by giving up fossil fuel energy and moving the world energy infrastructure to renewables, the lecturer notes with great pleasure that the world and the lecturer’s home state of Texas are moving away from fossil fuels to CLEAN ENERGY.

COMMENT#5: CLEAN ENERGY: That the relevant issue here is cleanliness and not climate change suggests that the underlying activism in climate activism is anti fossil fuel activism and not climate science. This aspect of climate science is explored in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

FOOTNOTE: THE SOLAR CYCLE

In a sunspot cycle presentation, Professor Hayhoe displays the chart shown above where a span of 40 years is presented to demonstrate the absence in the responsiveness of temperature to the sunspot cycle. We show in a related post both in terms of data and in terms of bibliography, that 40 years is not a sufficient time span for this analysis. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/19/sunspots/ . There we show that the temperature relevance of the sunspot cycle must be studied over very long time spans longer than 100 years.

BIBLIOGRAPHY: PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

1. Foster, Kenneth R., Paolo Vecchia, and Michael H. Repacholi. “Science and the precautionary principle.” Science 288.5468 (2000): 979-981. The Precautionary Principle has become enshrined in international law, and is the basis for European environmental legislation. However, “precautionary” decisions have been controversial, and the principle itself lacks clear definition. A recent commentary by the European Commission offers guidelines for politically transparent application of the principle, while emphasizing the need for careful review of relevant scientific data. Recent precautionary policies for limiting public exposure to radio-frequency energy shows that the principle can be applied in a way that does not conflict with traditional exposure guidelines. Major uncertainties still remain in the standard of proof needed to invoke the principle.
2. Kriebel, David, et al. “The precautionary principle in environmental science.” Environmental health perspectives 109.9 (2001): 871-876. Environmental scientists play a key role in society’s responses to environmental problems, and many of the studies they perform are intended ultimately to affect policy. The precautionary principle, proposed as a new guideline in environmental decision making, has four central components: taking preventive action in the face of uncertainty; shifting the burden of proof to the proponents of an activity; exploring a wide range of alternatives to possibly harmful actions; and increasing public participation in decision making. In this paper we examine the implications of the precautionary principle for environmental scientists, whose work often involves studying highly complex, poorly understood systems, while at the same time facing conflicting pressures from those who seek to balance economic growth and environmental protection. In this complicated and contested terrain, it is useful to examine the methodologies of science and to consider ways that, without compromising integrity and objectivity, research can be more or less helpful to those who would act with precaution. We argue that a shift to more precautionary policies creates opportunities and challenges for scientists to think differently about the ways they conduct studies and communicate results. There is a complicated feedback relation between the discoveries of science and the setting of policy. While maintaining their objectivity and focus on understanding the world, environmental scientists should be aware of the policy uses of their work and of their social responsibility to do science that protects human health and the environment. The precautionary principle highlights this tight, challenging linkage between science and policy.
3. Smith, Roy L. “Risk-based concentrations: prioritizing environmental problems using limited data.” Toxicology 106.1-3 (1996): 243-266. A difficult task faced by regulatory agencies is that of choosing, on the basis of limited data, which environmental problems to address. This paper incorporates USEPA risk assessment methods into a quantitative approach for prioritizing locations, contaminants and media according to potential health risk. USEPA has developed either a reference dose (a chronic dose without adverse effect) or slope factor (upper bound lifetime cancer risk per mg · kg⁻¹ · d⁻¹) for many substances. This work combines these ‘toxicological constants’ with predetermined risk levels (either a 10⁻⁶ cancer risk or a chronic intake equal to the reference dose) and protective human exposure assumptions (e.g. 70-kg body mass, 30-year exposure, 2-l · d⁻¹ drinking water ingestion, etc.) to produce risk-based concentrations for 596 contaminants in air, drinking water, edible fish and soil. Because USEPA designed its methods to estimate upper bound risks, these risk-based concentrations are likely to be protective of human health. Regulatory officials can use this information to calculate numerical ratios between measured environmental levels and risk-based concentrations. These ratios serve as a surrogate for potential health impacts and can be used to prioritize problems for attention. Ratio calculation and ranking can be automated for searches of computerized environmental databases.
4. Goldstein, Bernard D. “The precautionary principle also applies to public health actions.” American Journal of Public Health 91.9 (2001): 1358-1361. The precautionary principle asserts that the burden of proof for potentially harmful actions by industry or government rests on the assurance of safety and that when there are threats of serious damage, scientific uncertainty must be resolved in favor of prevention. Yet we in public health are sometimes guilty of not adhering to this principle. Examples of actions with unintended negative consequences include the addition of methyl tert-butyl ether to gasoline in the United States to decrease air pollution, the drilling of tube wells in Bangladesh to avoid surface water microbial contamination, and villagewide parenteral antischistosomiasis therapy in Egypt. Each of these actions had unintended negative consequences. Lessons include the importance of multidisciplinary approaches to public health and the value of risk–benefit analysis, of public health surveillance, and of a functioning tort system—all of which contribute to effective precautionary approaches. PUBLIC HEALTH ADVOCATES around the world have increasingly invoked the precautionary principle as a basis for preventive actions.1–9 This has been particularly true for environmental and food safety issues, in which the precautionary principle has moved from being a rallying cry for environmental advocates to a legal principle embodied in international treaties.2,6,8–11 Definitional issues have become more important as the term has made the transition from a noble goal to a component of legal requirements. For the purposes of this commentary, a useful definition is one that is contained in the 1989 Rio Declaration12: “Nations shall use the precautionary approach to protect the environment. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, scientific uncertainty shall not be used to postpone cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.” The upsurge in use of the term “precautionary principle” has been relatively sudden. For example, changes in the approach to hazardous air pollutants in the 1990 US Clean Air Act Amendments embody the precautionary principle. Until then, control of individual air pollutants in this category depended on a risk-based approach in which the burden of proof was on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to demonstrate that environmental levels of the air pollutant were likely to produce adverse effects. Further, the extent of imposed control measures was based on the feasibility of reducing risk. Instead, the 1990 amendments state that maximal available control technology is to be used on each of more than 180 pollutants unless the pollutant can be clearly shown to be harmless. Shifting the burden of proof and moving away from risk science to a technology-based approach were much debated at the time, but the term “precautionary principle” was not part of the debate. Now it certainly would be, although whether this precautionary approach will be more successful than the previous risk-based approach is still open to debate. For example, germane to the broader issue of the value of the precautionary principle is the question of whether regulating specific air pollutant emission control technology will stifle the invention and application of newer, more effective technology. At its core, the precautionary principle contains many of the attributes of good public health practice, including a focus on primary prevention and a recognition that unforeseen and unwanted consequences of human activities are not unusual. Yet there are at least 3 recently reported examples of actions taken in the name of improving public health that would better have been avoided or at least considered more carefully beforehand. I argue that the precautionary principle needs to be applied to public health actions as well as to actions pursued by government and industry for competitive and economic reasons. It is not my intention to provide a well-rounded critique of the precautionary principle, which is discussed by Kriebel and Tickner13 and by Jamieson and Wartenburg14 in this issue of the Journal.

BIBLIOGRAPHY: DATA SELECTION BIAS

1. Ambroise, Christophe, and Geoffrey J. McLachlan. “Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data.” Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 99.10 (2002): 6562-6566. In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called .632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.
2. Reid, J. Leighton, Matthew E. Fagan, and Rakan A. Zahawi. “Positive site selection bias in meta-analyses comparing natural regeneration to active forest restoration.” Science advances 4.5 (2018): eaas9143. Several recent meta-analyses have aimed to determine whether natural regeneration is more effective at recovering tropical forests than active restoration (for example, tree planting). We reviewed this literature and found that comparisons between strategies are biased by positive site selection. Studies of natural forest regeneration are generally conducted at sites where a secondary forest was already present, whereas tree planting studies are done in a broad range of site conditions, including non-forested sites that may not have regenerated in the absence of planting. Thus, a level of success in forest regeneration is guaranteed for many studies representing natural regeneration, but not for those representing active restoration. The complexity of optimizing forest restoration is best addressed by paired experimentation at the same site, replicated across landscapes. Studies that have taken this approach reach different conclusions than those arising from meta-analyses; the results of paired experimental comparisons emphasize that natural regeneration is a highly variable process and that active restoration and natural regeneration are complementary strategies.
3. Bevan, Shaun, et al. “Understanding selection bias, time-lags and measurement bias in secondary data sources: Putting the Encyclopedia of Associations database in broader context.” Social science research 42.6 (2013): 1750-1764. Secondary data gathered for purposes other than research play an important role in the social sciences. A recent data release has made an important source of publicly available data on associational interests, the Encyclopedia of Associations (EA), readily accessible to scholars (www.policyagendas.org). In this paper we introduce these new data and systematically investigate issues of lag between events and subsequent reporting in the EA, as these have important but under-appreciated effects on time-series statistical models. We further analyze the accuracy and coverage of the database in numerous ways. Our study serves as a guide to potential users of this database, but we also reflect upon a number of issues that should concern all researchers who use secondary data such as newspaper records, IRS reports and FBI Uniform Crime Reports.
4. Whitehead, John C. “Environmental interest group behavior and self‐selection bias in contingent valuation mail surveys.” Growth and Change 22.1 (1991): 10-20. This paper analyzes the behavior of a general sample and an environmental interest group sample in a contingent market for wetlands preservation. Mail survey response rates and environmental values for wetlands preservation are significantly greater in the environmental interest group sample than in the general population sample. An estimate of the potential self‐selection bias in the benefits of wetlands preservation is made. These results suggest that self‐selection bias in contingent valuation mail surveys could upwardly bias aggregate benefit estimates as much as 50 percent. Potential, but costly, solutions to the problem of self‐selection bias are suggested.