THE ONLY ISSUE IS HUMAN CAUSE
Posted on: November 9, 2021
THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE CASE THAT THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ALARM OF THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) IS HUMAN CAUSE AND NOT THE CLAIMED HARMFUL IMPACTS OF WARMING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE IMPACTS OF WARMING WOULD BE THE SAME REGARDLESS OF CAUSE – WHETHER NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE OR HUMAN CAUSED. THE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE ON HARMFUL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AS THE RATIONALE FOR CLIMATE ACTION IS NON-SENSICAL BECAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, NO MATTER HOW HARMFUL, ARE A CREATION OF WARMING NO MATTER WHAT THE CAUSE.
THE NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE CYCLES OF OF INTERGLACIALS ARE DESCRIBED IN RELATED POSTS FOR THE HOLOCENE AND THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL {LINKED BELOW}AND THERE WE FIND THAT INTERGLACIALS ARE NEVER AT CONSTANT TEMPERATURE SUCH THAT A WARMING TREND WOULD REQUIRE HUMAN CAUSE TO EXPLAIN.
INSTEAD WHAT WE SEE IN THE DATA IS THAT INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURES ARE CONSTANTLY GOING THROUGH CHAOTIC ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES ALWAYS AT CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES.
IN THIS HISTORY OF THE HOLOCENE, THE CURRENT WARMING CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AS THE NATURAL WARMING CYCLE THAT FOLLOWS THE NATURAL LITTLE ICE AGE COOLING CYCLE.
IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE WAS NOT FORECAST FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY THAT COULD CAUSE SUCH A THING BUT WAS CLAIMED FOR HUMAN CAUSE AFTER THE FACT.
EEMIAN LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/
HOLOCENE LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/
HOLOCENE LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/a-quora-question-3/
HOLOCENE LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/a-quora-question-3/
HOLOCENE LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/
THAT THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION HAPPENS TO FALL IN BETWEEN THESE TEMPERATURE CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE CANNOT BE TAKEN AS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE PARTICULARLY SO SINCE CLIMATE SCIENCE IS UNABLE TO RELATE THESE EVENTS IN TERMS OF TIMING.
CLIMATE SCIENCE CLAIMS A CRITICAL ROLE IN THEIR THEORY FOR “THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR” WHEN THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION STARTED GLOBAL WARMING BUT THEY DON’T KNOW WHEN THAT PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS EXACTLY AS SHOWN BELOW. YET, THEY PROPOSE A CRITICAL AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT MUST NOT BE EXCEEDED AS MEASURED “SINCE THAT CRITICAL PRE INDUSTRIAL YEAR AND REFERRED TO AS “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL”.
QUESTION: WHEN DID HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING START?
ANSWER: CALLENDAR 1938: IT STARTED IN 1900, HANSEN1988, IT STARTED IN 1950, IPCC2001, IT STARTED IN 1750, IPCC 2015: IT STARTED IN 1850, NASA 2020: IT STARTED IN 1950.
ETCW: YET ANOTHER UNRESOLVED ISSUE IN THIS TIMING PROPOSITION IS THE ETCW MYSTERY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE “EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING” (ETCW) 1900 TO 1950 REMAINS UNEXPLAINED.
OTHER ISSUES: WEAKNESSES IN THE CAUSATION HYPOTHESIS INVOLVE ISSUES IN EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY UNCERTAINTY AND THE TCRE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY DESCRIBED IN THE DOCUMENTS LINKED BELOW.
LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/10/the-climate-sensitivity-issue/
LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/
LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/
LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/
LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/
LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/rising-atmospheric-co2/
LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/
LINK#8: PRE INDUSTRIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/a-quora-question-3/
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
WITH REGARD TO EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE, A PECULIAR CLAIM MADE BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT HUMAN CAUSE IS PROVEN BY THE SEVERITY OF THE WARMING THAT IS THE STRONGEST AND HOTTEST IN THE LAST 2,000 YEARS. THERE ARE TWO WEAKNESSES IN THIS CLAIM. THE FIRST IS THAT THE HOLOCENE IS ABOUT 9,000 YEARS OLD AND THE LIMITATION OF THE COMPARISON PERIOD TO 2,000 YEARS INVALIDATES THE ESSENCE OF THE CLAIM. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE INTENSITY OF THE WARMING DOES NOT PROVE HUMAN CAUSE. THROUGHOUT THE HOLOCENE WE HAVE ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT MILLENNIAL AND CENTENNIAL TIME SCALES BUT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT WITH SOME STRONGER AND HOTTER THAN OTHERS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT IMPLY HUMAN CAUSE AS THEY ARE NATURAL AND THERE IS NO BASIS FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES SHOULD BE OF EQUAL SEVERITY. THESE KINDS OF COMICAL INCONSISTENCIES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE WAY ACTIVISM CORRUPTS SCIENCE AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/
THE NEED FOR FEARFUL CLIMATE IMPACTS TO PUSH THE CLIMATE ACTION PROPOSITION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE IS ILLOGICAL AND WITHOUT SUBSTANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE BECAUSE CLIMATE ACTION IS IRRELEVANT WITHOUT HUMAN CAUSE. THIS ODDITY OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THEIR INABILITY TO PRESENT CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE. THIS SITUATION LEAVES THEM WITH ONLY THEIR FEAR APPEAL MOVEMENT FOR CLIMATE ACTION BASED ON THE HARM THAT CLIMATE IMPACTS CAN DO IF CLIMATE ACTION IS NOT TAKEN.
IN THE ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSE THE LOGICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING IS ADAPTATION AND GEOENGINEERING STRATEGIES. THE USE OF FEARFUL CLIMATE IMPACTS AND A FEAR APPEAL MOVEMENT TO PUSH CLIMATE ACTION OBSTRUCTS THE RATIONAL POLICY OF ADAPTTION AND GEOENGINEERING AND IN THAT RESPECT, THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT THAT IS PUSHING CLIMATE ACTION BY WAY OF FEAR APPEAL ACTIVISM IS A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY.
BOTTOM LINE: NO DEMAND FOR CLIMATE ACTION CAN BE MADE WITHOUT CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE PARTICULARLY SO SINCE (#1) NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING IS NORMAL IN INTERGLACIALS, AND (#2) THE CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDED IS COSTLY.
RELATED POST ON CLIMATE ADAPTATION: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/13/climate-change-fear-appeal/
RELATED POST ON GEOENGINEERING: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/25/climate-fearology-vs-geoengineering/
CLIMATE ACTION ACTIVISM AS EXPLAINED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE
A LIST OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS USED CONSTANTLY AND REPEATEDLY BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS PROVIDED ONLINE BY THE PEOPLE AT THE “BEFORE THE FLOOD” SITE: LINK: https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-crisis/worst-impacts/ . A brief summary is provided below.
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