HOLOCENE GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Posted on: January 5, 2022
WE ARE IN THE QUATERNARY ICE AGE WHERE 80% TO 90% OF THE TIME, THE EARTH IS IN A GLACIATED STATE WITH GLACIAL GROWTH IN THE GLACIATION PHASE AND GLACIAL RETREAT IN THE DEGLACIATION PHASE. WHAT WE FIND IN THE DATA IS THAT BOTH LEGS OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE EXHIBIT CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES SUCH THAT ALTERNATING GLACIAL GROWTH AND GLACIAL DECLINE AT THESE TIME SCALES ARE SEEN IN BOTH LEGS OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION IS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT EDGE FOR COOLING AND ICE FORMATION IN THE GLACIATION PHASE AND A SLIGHT EDGE FOR WARMING AND ICE MELT IN THE DEGLACIATION PHASE.
AT THE END OF EACH DEGLACIATION PHASE THERE IS A BRIEF DEGLACIATED WARM PERIOD CALLED {INTERGLACIAL} THAT LASTS FOR ABOUT 10,000 TO 15,000 YEARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN ONE OF THESE INTERGLACIALS THAT IS CALLED THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL THAT GOT STARTED ABOUT 11,000 YEARS AGO. A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF INTERGLACIALS IS THAT THE CHAOTIC TEMPERATURE CYCLES SEEN IN THE GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION PHASES OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE IS ALSO FOUND IN INTERGLACIALS. THIS MEANS THAT INTERGLACIALS ARE NOT AT A CONSTANT FIXED TEMPERATURE BUT THAT THEY EXHIBIT CHAOTIC BACK AND FORTH WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES ALSO AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES.
AS FOR EXAMPLE, THE HISTORY OF THE HOLOCENE SHOWS THAT AS SOON AS THE LAST DEGLACIATION HAD APPARENTLY ENDED, A STRONG COOLING TREND INTERVENED AND DROVE DOWN THE TEMPERATURE IN GREENLAND BY 15C. THIS GLOBAL COOLING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL LASTED FOR MORE THAN A THOUSAND YEARS. IT IS CALLED THE YOUNGER DRYAS.
FOLLOWING THE YOUNGER DRYAS, A STRONG WARMING TREND SET IN ALSO AT A THOUSAND YEAR TIME SCALE. IT TOOK THE GLOBAL CLIMATE TO A 4,000-YEAR WARM PERIOD THAT STARTED 9,000 YEARS AGO. IT TOOK THE CLIMATE TO A WARM PERIOD CALLED THE HOLOCENE CLIMATE OPTIMUM. THIS WARM PERIOD IS CREDITED WITH THE INVENTION OF AGRICULTURE AND THE CREATION OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION.
BUT THAT FINE GLOBAL WARMING WEATHER OF THE HOLOCENE CLIMATE OPTIMUM CAME TO AN END ABOUT 5,000 YEARS AGO.
THESE ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLOCENE BY WAY OF THE MINOAN WARM PERIOD, THE ROMAN WARM PERIOD, AND THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND FINALLY FOLLOWING THE LITTLE ICE AGE COOLING PERIOD, WE ENTERED THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD THAT IS THOUGHT TO HAVE STARTED WHEN THE LITTLE ICE AGE ENDED ABOUT A THOUSAND YEARS AGO EXCEPT THAT THE DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE LITTLE ICE AGE AND THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/23/a-natural-recovery-from-the-lia/ .
THE RESULT IS THAT THERE IS SOME CONFUSION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM THE LITTLE ICE AGE TO THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE GOT STARTED. CURRENTLY THE BEST GUESS OFFERED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT IT HAPPENED AT SOME TIME BETWEEN 1850 AND 1950. NASA AND CLIMATE SCIENTIST JAMES HANSEN AKA THE FATHER OF CLIMATE CHANGE FAVOR 1950 WHILE THE IPCC HAS PROPOSED START DATES FROM 1750 TO 1850.
THE CONTRADICTION HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE START DATE CONTAINS THE CRITICAL IMPORTANCE AS THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF CAUSATION BY THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION WHICH GOT GOING AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 1760 AND 1840, THE CONFUSED CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION ON THE START DATE UNDOES THE CRITICAL CAUSATION CONNECTION TO THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
SUMMARY
THE ESSENTIAL THEORY OF AGW {ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING} IS THAT IT IS HUMAN CAUSED BECAUSE IT FOLLOWED IN THE HEELS OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. IN RESPONSE WE PROPOSE THAT:
(#1): THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ONE OF MANY SUCH WARMING TRENDS IN THE HOLOCENE THAT HAD OCCURRED PRIOR TO THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
(#2): THAT THE CURRENT WARMING TREND CAME IN THE HEELS OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION.
(#3): ARGUMENT #2 ABOVE IS FURTHER STRENGTHENED IN VIEW OF THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ABOUT WHEN THIS ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING CYCLE ACTUALLY BEGAN. SOME START DATES PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE PRECEDE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND SOME START DATES PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE FOLLOW THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION BY AS MUCH AS A CENTURY.
CONCLUSION:
WE CONCLUDE FROM THE DATA AND ANALYSIS PRESENTD ABOVE THAT SINCE INTERGLACIALS ARE NOT AT A CONSTANT STEADY TEMPERATURE BUT GO THROUGH WHAT ARE OFTEN VIOLENT WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT MILLENNIAL AND CENTENNIAL TIME SCALES, AN INTERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE CANNOT BE ASSUMED TO BE HUMAN CAUSED WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE OF CAUSATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED IN THIS REGARD THAT THE COMICAL CLIMATE SCIENCE ACTIVISM IN REPEATED BUT FAILED FORECASTS OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET {WAIS} WITH CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE WAS DRAWN FROM WHAT HAPPENED IN THE EEMAIN INTERGLACIAL THOUSANDS OF YEARS BEFORE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. AND THAT COLLAPSE THAT NEVER HAPPENED IN THIS WARMING CYCLE DID, DID HAPPEN WAY BACK THEN BEFORE THE INDUSTRIAL REEVOLUTION. THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED HERE IMPLY THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE MUST PRESENT SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE – MORE SIGNIFICANT THAT IT HAPPENS TO FOLLOW THE INDUSTRIAL FREVOLUTION. AS IT STANDS, UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE CONCLUDE THAT WITHOUT HARD EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE THE CURRENT WARMING TRENDIS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS YET ANOTHER OF MANY WARMING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE.
THE NEED FOR AN EXTREME FORM OF FEAR APPEAL ACTIVISM BY CLIMATE SCIENCE TO SELL THEIR CLIMATE AGENDA IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR CONCLUSION ABOVE THAT THE EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE IS WEAK TO THE POINT OF NON-EXISTENT AND THAT THEREFORE IT REQUIRES FEAR APPEAL ACTIVISM TO SELL.
THE CLIMATE SCIENCE EMPHASIS ON AND OBSESSION WITH FEAR APPEAL TO SELL THEIR ANTI FOSSIL FUEL AGENDA IN TERMS OF A FEAR OF GLOBAL WARMING IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN THIS CONTEXT.
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