Reference: Major firms more upbeat despite crisis, Bangkok Post, September 21, 2007

It is reported that the Bank of Japan's Tankan index of business confidence in Japan has gone up. It was measured at 6.2 in September against -0.9 in June of 2007. The Tankan index represents a small difference between two large and uncertain numbers. The degree of uncertainty in differences of this nature is so large that it is virtually impossible to interpret them particularly when measuring trends or differences. For example, whereas the BOJ's September survey shows that the Tankan has gone up, a similar survey by Reuters shows that it has gone down. The Tankan is a flawed measure and its interpretation can only lead to confusion.

Cha-am Jamal
Thailand